5 pitchers who can bounce back in 2023
Even the best pitchers can have a down season, whether it's because of injury, an uncharacteristic slump or just plain bad luck.
Here are five who went through that in 2022 ... and could rebound in a big way in '23, as predicted by MLB.com's analysts.
These five pitchers are prime bounceback candidates this season:
Tyler Glasnow, Rays
Key stat: 37% whiff rate in 2021 (best among AL starting pitchers)
This prediction is buttressed by the fact that we have already seen Glasnow post-Tommy John surgery. And he was glorious.
His 98 mph fastball was back. His nasty curveball was back. Glasnow threw 6 2/3 innings over two short starts late in the regular season and struck out 10 batters while allowing only one run. Then he made the Guardians look foolish over five scoreless innings in Game 2 of the American League Wild Card Series.
It was all reminiscent of 2021, when Glasnow was a strong Cy Young contender before his right elbow began to bark on June 14. Through 14 starts to that point, Glasnow owned a 2.66 ERA and 0.93 WHIP across 88 innings. His K/9 was above 11.0 for a third consecutive season. His 36.2% strikeout rate and 28.2% K-BB rate ranked third in the AL.
With his elbow repaired and his strikeout stuff intact, Glasnow appears set to head one of MLB¡¯s best rotations.
-- Brian Murphy
Chris Sale, Red Sox
Key stat: Top 5 in AL Cy Young voting each season from 2013-18
Sure, Sale has made only 11 starts over the past three seasons after Tommy John surgery and a string of freak injuries. And yes, he will turn 34 years old on Opening Day. Given all that, it¡¯s easy to forget that he was one of the most dominant pitchers in the Majors from 2012-18 before arm issues derailed his '19 season. Sale's 1,678 strikeouts during that span ranked second to Max Scherzer (1,851). His 2.91 ERA was third best among qualified starters behind Clayton Kershaw (2.14) and Jacob deGrom (2.67).
But Sale is healthy entering 2023 and hit the ground running at Spring Training: ¡°Full go,¡± he said after his first bullpen session this spring.
Though he's pitched sporadically over the past two years after missing all of 2020, Sale has performed well when healthy, with a 3.17 ERA and 57 strikeouts in 48 1/3 innings. In other words, he¡¯s proven he can still be an effective pitcher post-Tommy John, so now he just needs to stay on the field. If he does so in 2023, Sale should be in for a bounceback season, even if he doesn¡¯t quite return to perennial Cy Young contender status.?
-- Paul Casella
Josh Hader, Padres
Key stat: 36.6% whiff rate in 2022
You see that 5.22 ERA and 1.28 WHIP Hader posted last year? Those were, in fact, his stats, but they¡¯re also lying to you. The hard-throwing lefty basically had two short stretches where he wasn¡¯t right. In back-to-back appearances on July 13 and 15, he allowed nine runs on seven hits (four homers) while recording only one out. Then, in five appearances from Aug. 9-28 after being traded from the Brewers to the Padres, Hader surrendered 12 runs on 11 hits in 2 2/3 innings.
Add it all up, and that¡¯s 21 runs on 18 hits (five dingers) ... in three innings. Put another way, those seven outings accounted for 72% of the earned runs, 42% of the hits and 63% of the homers Hader allowed all season. Sheesh.
As he showed by hitting triple digits for the first time in his MLB career last postseason -- during which he threw 5 1/3 scoreless frames with one hit, one walk and 10 strikeouts after those midseason struggles -- Hader still has that ferocious fastball-slider combo that gets whiffs with the best of them (97th percentile of MLB in whiff rate). He¡¯s poised to set himself up for a big payday with a huge platform season at age 29.
-- Jason Catania
Kenta Maeda, Twins
Key stat: 31% hard-hit rate allowed from 2019-21 (fourth best among SP)
Remember Maeda? 2.87 ERA in 25 postseason games? Second place in the 2020 AL Cy Young balloting? If not, it¡¯s because it¡¯s been a minute. Due to Tommy John surgery, Maeda hasn¡¯t appeared in the Majors since Aug. 21, 2021, the timing of which almost works in his favor. Unlike pitchers who got hurt last season and are weighing the timing of their rehab against the looming baseball calendar, Maeda is going to be looking at something like 17 months off by the time he gets back into a game in 2023.
It's true that he'll turn 35 shortly after Opening Day, but it's also true that when he was healthy from 2019-21, he was one of baseball¡¯s most difficult pitchers to square up. His 31% hard-hit rate in that time was fourth best among regular starting pitchers. Soft contact in front of what should be an incredibly good defensive Twins outfield? Sign us up.
-- Mike Petriello
Dinelson Lamet, Rockies
Key stat: 39.7% whiff rate in 2022 (eighth best in MLB)
Not too long ago, Lamet looked like the best pitcher on a Padres staff with Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove. But injuries completely derailed his San Diego tenure after his breakout 2020. Now Lamet is in Colorado, he's healthy, he's in the bullpen ... and he might be on the verge of becoming dominant again.
You wouldn't know it by the stat sheet -- Lamet had a 6.12 ERA in 2022 -- but try to look past it for a second. Lamet struck out over 30% of the batters he faced, with a 12.5 K/9. He generated a 39.7% swing-and-miss rate, eighth best among all pitchers who faced at least 100 batters last season. His slider is still a wipeout pitch, getting whiffs on over half the swings against it, and his fastball has plenty of life, averaging 95.4 mph and topping out at 97.9 mph.
-- David Adler