The Dodgers and Padres will open the 2025 season with the two-game Tokyo Series from March 18-19. We¡¯ll be counting down to that date with our annual preview series, with each story looking ahead to the coming season by breaking down a particular topic, division by division.

Today: Ranking the reigning division winners¡¯ chances of repeating

Quick trivia question, trusted readers: How many teams repeated as division champions last year? That¡¯s to say, who won division titles in both 2023 and 2024?

The answer is three. The Brewers won the NL Central (by 10 games, one game more than they won in 2023, despite losing Corbin Burnes and manager Craig Counsell). The Astros won the AL West (after winning it on a tiebreaker with the Rangers in 2023). And, of course, the Dodgers won the NL West, for the third straight season and the 11th time in the past 12 years. That is par for the course. Here are the numbers of defending champs to win again in each of the previous six years:

2023: Three
2022: Two
2021: Two
2020: Three
2019: Three
2018: Four

So, five out of the past seven seasons, we¡¯ve had at least three repeat division champions. As we head into 2025, should we expect to see that many again?

Here¡¯s a look at the six division champions from last year, ranked by the likelihood that they¡¯ll win their divisions again. Repeating: It¡¯s not so easy to do. (Each club is listed with its 2024 record and margin of victory in the division.)

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1. Dodgers (NL West)
98-64 (5 games over Padres)
I know the Dodgers just won the World Series and everything, so the whole baseball world¡¯s justifiably still flying high about them, but it should be noted that, last year, they actually put up their worst winning percentage since 2018. Now, they still won 98 games, so no one¡¯s crying for the Dodgers or anything, but the point is that a whole bunch of things went wrong for them in 2024 (most notably, their rotation being ravaged by injuries) and they still cruised to a division title and, ultimately, a World Series.

Which is to say they absolutely should be better in 2025, with the additions of Blake Snell, Michael Conforto and Hyeseong Kim, not to mention that new rotation piece named Shohei Ohtani. While the Diamondbacks look better than they did in 2024, the Padres look a little worse, and the Giants and (especially) the Rockies aren¡¯t even within shouting distance. This division, once again, is the Dodgers, and then everybody else.

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2. Astros (AL West)
88-73 (3 1/2 games over the Mariners)
If there¡¯s ever a year when we only have one team successfully defend its division title, it might be this one, as the gap on this list between the Dodgers and everybody else is rather dramatic. In my personal predictions, the Dodgers are in fact the only team I have repeating as champs. (But we¡¯ll get into that over the next few weeks.) The best way to illustrate this is that you can make a legitimate argument that the next-most likely division champion is a team that lost Kyle Tucker and (almost assuredly) Alex Bregman this offseason.

That may say more about the rest of the AL West than it does the Astros, given that the Mariners have been surprisingly idle, the Rangers have serious bullpen questions and, honestly, the most exciting team in this division this winter has been the Athletics. Still, you don¡¯t have to squint that hard to see the Astros winning their eighth AL West title in the last nine years. Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker are solid additions at the infield corners, while the rotation has been formidable for years now and promises to be so again in 2025. Also, Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve? Still here. The Astros look weaker than they have in a while. But so does the rest of the division.

3. Yankees (AL East)
94-68 (3 games over the Orioles)
You have to credit the Yankees for not sitting around and pouting after Juan Soto left them for the Mets. They were immediately aggressive in spending some of that money they had earmarked for Soto, signing Max Fried and Paul Goldschmidt and trading for Cody Bellinger and Devin Williams. You can¡¯t replace Soto, but those additions do fill some of the holes the Yankees had ¨C and the Yankees had a surprising number of holes for a team that won 94 games and reached the World Series last year.

This is a fascinating division. The Orioles seem to be idling but still have loads of young talent; the Red Sox are adding, but not at the pace you might expect; the Blue Jays have two months to prove themselves before trades start happening; and the Rays have the best farm system in baseball but one that doesn¡¯t seem quite ready to contend just yet. The Yankees are the house favorites, but they are also vulnerable to a team like the Orioles finally putting it together. That being said, if you¡¯re still the favorites after losing someone the quality of Soto, you¡¯re doing something right.

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4. Brewers (NL Central)
93-69 (10 games over the Cardinals and Cubs)
When the Cubs added Tucker this offseason, they quickly moved into frontrunner status for the NL Central crown. Then again, that¡¯s what happened before last year when they hired Craig Counsell as manager, signed Shota Imanaga and brought back Cody Bellinger. Yet there, once again, were the Brewers atop the division.

Tucker is a huge addition, obviously, but trading Bellinger does hurt the Cubs, and that could be enough right there to let the Brewers hang on to first place. The Crew did trade away an elite closer in Williams, but their bullpen should still be excellent. Their rotation should be better, thanks to getting Brandon Woodruff back from injury and adding Nestor Cortes (who could be a perfect Brewers pitcher) in the Williams deal. And, oh yes, they will get a year of improvement from Jackson Chourio, who is still the youngest player in the Majors and might just be a 2025 NL MVP candidate. The Reds should be better, the Cardinals should be worse, and the Pirates don¡¯t look ready to make any sort of leap. People keep counting out the Brewers, at their own peril.

5. Guardians (AL Central)
92-69 (6 1/2 games over the Royals and Tigers)
The AL Central used to be the division that only got its division winner in the playoffs, but in 2024, it had three teams reach October. The Guardians led the way, making it to the ALCS. (It certainly helped everyone¡¯s records that the division went a collective 42-10 against the White Sox.) Cleveland¡¯s crown was a surprise to most after it had won only 76 games in 2023 and didn¡¯t make any major additions, but the Guardians¡¯ bullpen, clutch hitting and a deft touch from rookie manager Stephen Vogt were enough to push them over the top.

The Guardians still look a little better than the other three playoff contenders this year ¡ªespecially if all the Tigers end up adding are Gleyber Torres and Alex Cobb ¡ª but it¡¯s hardly by a wide margin. This feels like another year when there are four AL Central contenders, and it may just be luck and kismet that pushes one team above the others. The Guardians could be fortunate again. But in this division, it¡¯s anyone¡¯s guess.

6. Phillies (NL East)
95-67 (6 games over Braves and Mets)
Is this the toughest division in baseball? If you ignore the Marlins, it might be. The Nationals seem to be a year away from contention, but they¡¯re loaded with talent and will be downright scary in the second half. And, well, the rest of the division is just juggernaut after juggernaut. The Braves were hit with an apocalyptic cavalcade of injuries last year that can¡¯t possibly repeat itself. (Right?) If, more likely, they have a normal number of injuries, they¡¯ll return to being one of the very best teams, top to bottom, in the sport.

The Mets, well, they went out and signed Soto, which is a pretty terrific way to improve your team and is certainly a sign that you¡¯re going all out. The Phillies still look formidable and may even remain the favorites in this division. But it¡¯s going to be a battle. It would not be surprising to see, like in 2024, three playoff teams from this division, which is remarkable considering the Mets and Braves should both be better. Will the Phillies follow suit?