For only the third time, USA Baseball crowned a non-California champion in the National High School Invitational last week, with Florida’s Venice High School the last team standing in the April 12 championship game.
The NHSI is a team event, but it’s also become a huge scouting event since its inception in 2012, with everyone from area scouts up to directors and general managers pouring into North Carolina to see some of the best high school talent in the Draft class. This year was no different, but nearly all the talk at the end of the tournament was about one guy: Corona high school right-hander Seth Hernandez (Draft No. 5).
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Sure, there were other performances that stood out. Trinity Christian Academy right-hander Aaron Watson (Draft No. 34) struck out 10 over seven innings, throwing his fastball up to 96 mph and missing a lot of bats with his low-80s slider. Poly Prep righty Miguel Sime Jr. (Draft No. 100) threw six of the 10 hardest fastballs of the week, touching triple digits and finishing with 22 heaters clocked at 98 mph or harder. Hernandez’s teammate Billy Carlson (Draft No. 12) took good at-bats and played good defense at shortstop. Wesleyan Christian two-way standout Josh Hammond (Draft No. 77) had some really good BP sessions and looked good on the mound, maintaining his prospect status on both sides.
But it was Hernandez who stood head and shoulders above the rest, creating more buzz than all of the other prospects at the National Training Complex combined. The 6-foot-4 Vanderbilt commit struck out 11 in his seven-inning complete game masterpiece on April 10, allowing just three hits and one walk. His fastball averaged just over 96 mph and topped out at 99 mph, and he was at the upper level of that register in his seventh inning of work. He throws a high-spin four-seamer up in the zone and a two-seam version of the heater down, eliciting a 44.4 percent whiff rate. The four-seamer averaged 17.2 inches of inverted vertical break (IVB) and 15.2 inches of horizontal break, while the sinker averaged 13.5 IVB and 17.8 HB.
He’s far from just a power arm. He also has perhaps the best changeup in the class, an offspeed offering that gets 70 grades from scouts. At the NHSI, it led to a 58.3 percent whiff rate, a cambio with an average of 18 inches of horizontal break. He also spins a plus curve and he throws strikes with all of them. His performance in North Carolina was reminiscent not only of other past NHSI prep high school standouts but of some of the best prep arms in recent history.
“He’s better than Dylan Lesko at the same event,” one scouting director said about the 2022 first-rounder, who matched up against current Angels top prospect Caden Dana (MLB No. 74) at the NHSI that spring. “And there was some chatter at the park that it’s close to Hunter Greene.”
Greene, now the Reds ace, was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 Draft. That was the last time a high school right-hander went that high (the Tigers took Jackson Jobe third overall in 2021). It's also only one of a handful of times a prep righty signed as the No. 2 overall pick since the Draft began in 1965, joining Tyler Kolek (2014), Jameson Taillon (2010), Josh Beckett (1999), Bill Gullickson (1977), Tommy Boggs (1974), Jay Franklin (1971) and J.R. Richard (1969). Peter Broberg went No. 2 in 1968, but didn’t sign.
It’s a mixed bag, results-wise, with Beckett, Richard and Greene the best success stories. And Greene is really hitting his stride now. He was definitely in the conversation in the Twins’ war room in 2017 as the Draft approached, before they opted to take Royce Lewis, a high school hitter, at No. 1. Greene might end up being the best of the small amount of high school right-handed No. 2’s. But even that small group of nine seems enormous compared to the number of prep righties who have gone No. 1 overall: zero.
Which begs the question: Could Hernandez, who ranked No. 5 on MLB Pipeline’s Draft Top 100 last December and is sure to move up when a new Draft 150 is unveiled later this month, be a pioneer? Might the southern California product be the very first high school right-handed pitcher to go 1-1?
Sure, there are those who would avoid the risk of it all, and some who won’t like that he’ll already be 19 years old at Draft time. It remains to be seen if the Nationals, who own that top pick, would be scared away from taking him for any of those reasons. But in a Draft that hasn’t seen any other player or demographic truly separate themselves, this could be the year to make history.
“I would consider him for sure,” another scouting director said. “It’s hard to stack many more guys on top of him in this Draft class.
“He’s probably the most complete high school pitcher that we’ve seen in recent memory. He has four distinct above-average pitches that are weapons and he can command them all.”