8 candidates to make jump from losing record to playoffs

Prior to the 2023 season, we shared with you some fascinating news, which was that a losing team was all but guaranteed to find themselves getting into the playoffs the next season.

Nothing is ever really guaranteed, of course, but at the time, we found that it had happened in 33 of the previous 35 seasons, which is about as guaranteed as you¡¯ll get. It hasn¡¯t failed to work in 20 years -- the last time it didn't happen was 2005 -- and given that the postseason has since expanded to 12 teams, that only makes it more likely to continue, not less.

So what ended up happening? In 2023, four teams went from under .500 to October ¨C and two of them, Arizona and Texas, ended up meeting in the World Series. Given that, we looked at which teams might do the same before the 2024 season, and wouldn¡¯t you know it: Once again, four losing teams (Tigers, Guardians, Royals, Mets) made it to the playoffs.

If it¡¯s happening that regularly, that frequently, then you¡¯d better believe we¡¯re going to dive into this again. Even as some fans wring their hands over the juggernaut the Dodgers have built, we can still be all but certain that at least one losing team ¨C if not several ¨C will get to the playoffs this year. And after that? We know that anything can happen in October.

Who, then, will do it in 2025? Last year, we had a dozen losing teams, split evenly between the American and National Leagues. Those are our candidates. Or, at least, most of them are.

Let¡¯s take FanGraphs¡¯ postseason odds, eliminate the four it-would-take-an-absolute-miracle teams (White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, Nationals, all with postseason odds below 5%) and rank the remaining eight. One of these clubs will make the playoffs ¨C and probably more than one. After all, a year ago at this time, who was confidently saying the Tigers and Royals would get to October?

Teams are listed below with their 2024 record and 2025 postseason odds (as of Wednesday).

1) Rangers (78-84), 58% postseason odds

Why it will be them: Because the core of the team that won the World Series two years ago is still largely here, reinforced also by the addition of slugging Jake Burger and Joc Pederson. Plus, there¡¯s excitement about the currently-healthy Jacob deGrom, as well as talented young players expected to contribute more in 2025, such as Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter, Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford, the AL Player of the Month last September. Throw in the fact that Houston seems to have taken a step back, and that Seattle has, at the least, not taken a step forward, and the AL West is essentially a three-way tossup. The path is clear.

Why it won¡¯t: Because deGrom hasn¡¯t actually stayed healthy enough to throw even 100 innings since 2019, much less anything beyond that. There¡¯s also a whole lot of reliance on older pitchers, as deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Martin are all 35 or older, and Jon Gray, Tyler Mahle and several relievers are into their 30s. The bullpen is a mostly anonymous crew, and Adolis Garc¨ªa looked borderline unplayable for much of the 2024 season, forcing him to resort to swing changes in an attempt to rebound.

2) Blue Jays (74-88), 38%

Why it will be them: Because it¡¯s not that hard to imagine Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., each in hugely important contract years, having massive seasons, is it? It is almost literally now or never for a Toronto team that hasn¡¯t won a playoff game since 2016, because if it doesn¡¯t happen this year and then Bo and/or Vlad leave, you can expect sweeping changes throughout the organization. That said, the additions of Andr¨¦s Gim¨¦nez and Anthony Santander should be a welcome shakeup for an underwhelming position-player group. There¡¯s also a version of the rotation in which the aging trio of Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt have one more good run in them alongside Jos¨¦ Berr¨ªos ¨C and Bowden Francis, the AL Pitcher of the Month in September, backs up his late-season excellence.

Why it won¡¯t: Because while that rotation is indeed talented, it¡¯s also very old ¨C Gausman in particular showed some clear signs of decline in 2024 ¨C while the bullpen was baseball¡¯s worst, putting a lot of pressure on Jeff Hoffman and Yimi Garc¨ªa to improve it. The bottom half of the lineup has more than a few questions, and Bichette has a ton to prove, but mostly, the Blue Jays might simultaneously be ¡°a pretty good team¡± and ¡°fifth best in their own division.¡± The AL East never makes it easy.

3) Rays (80-82), 35%

Why it will be them: Because only one team in baseball allowed fewer runs in the second half, and not only does most of that pitching return, but they expect more from late-season breakout reliever Edwin Uceta and various arms returning to full health like Shane McClanahan and Shane Baz. Last year¡¯s weak offense ¨C which outscored only the White Sox ¨C should have a whole lot more of the exciting Junior Caminero. The club also added useful veterans Danny Jansen and Ha-Seong Kim to the lineup, while saying all the right things about rebounds from Christopher Morel and the unrelated Lowes, Josh and Brandon. Watch for Jonathan Aranda, a popular breakout pick.

Why it won¡¯t: Because ¡°outscoring only the White Sox¡± is a very, very, very deep hole for the lineup to come back from, and it¡¯s anyone¡¯s guess what the effects of playing a full season in George M. Steinbrenner Field will be. Like the Jays, the Rays also have to deal with baseball¡¯s toughest division. The path is there, but it¡¯s narrow, particularly in an American League where everyone outside the White Sox has at least some hope of contending.

4) Giants (80-82), 26%

Why it will be them: Because adding Willy Adames was a big, flashy move, and a healthy season from Jung-Hoo Lee is essentially a new addition as well. Everyone wants to see what slugging prospect Bryce Eldridge can do, if he earns a call up later in the season. It¡¯s hard to ignore Justin Verlander wearing Giants gear now, and Robbie Ray should be fully available to join Logan Webb in the rotation. The defense ought to be better, and certainly everything feels different with Buster Posey now in charge, even if the roster isn¡¯t that different from what it was last year.

Why it won¡¯t: Because the roster isn¡¯t that different from what it was last year, and there are questions about both Adames (who suffered a confounding and stunning step back on defense in his final year with Milwaukee) and Verlander (who struggled badly down the stretch at age 41 last season, posting an 8.10 ERA in seven second-half starts). With the NL West division title likely out of reach, their path to the postseason means they¡¯ll have to beat out at least two of Arizona, San Diego, the entire NL Central, and whichever two of the Mets, Phillies, and Braves don¡¯t take the NL East. It won¡¯t be easy.

5) Reds (77-85), 20%

Why it will be them: Because any time you can add Terry Francona as your manager, you¡¯ll have high expectations about what he can bring. Adding Brady Singer while betting on Gavin Lux¡¯s strong second half as a Dodger could both end up working out quite well, not to mention the valuable depth offered by additions Austin Hays and Jose Trevino. Having a healthy Matt McLain to go with ascendant superstar Elly De La Cruz might just give Cincinnati the most exciting middle infield around. You saw Hunter Greene¡¯s breakout last year, right? This team won¡¯t be boring, at least. The NL Central always offers a path.

Why it won¡¯t: The Francona Effect may be overstated. While his plaque in Cooperstown awaits, Cleveland did better without him last year, and the similarly well-regarded Ron Washington hasn¡¯t turned around the fortunes of the Angels. Meanwhile, the Reds are still in the confounding situation of ¡°having too many corner players and maybe not enough corner players,¡± as Jeimer Candelario, Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jake Fraley, and Spencer Steer were all somewhat underwhelming last year. Last year¡¯s defensive issues haven¡¯t fully been resolved.

6) Pirates (76-86), 18%

Why it will be them: Well, this one¡¯s easy. Paul Skenes might already be the best starter in baseball. Jared Jones is a popular breakout candidate; Mitch Keller is an appealing enough mid-rotation starter; Andrew Heaney is solid back-end depth; Bubba Chandler is one of the top pitching prospects in the game, and he¡¯s likely to debut at some point this year. The Pirates have an enviable amount of young starting pitching, and they play in a winnable division that rarely has an elite team. There¡¯s never a limit to what Oneil Cruz can do, particularly if his full-time move to center field works out, and if Ke¡¯Bryan Hayes really is healthy, there¡¯s the potential for him to be much better than he¡¯s been recently.

Why it won¡¯t: Because for as exciting as the rotation may be, the Pirates outscored only six other clubs last year. They did little this winter to add lineup reinforcements, particularly given that the biggest move they made was to get the unproven Spencer Horwitz ¨C who is now already down due to wrist surgery. Put it this way: Pittsburgh pitching is projected to rank as the 11th-best group in the Majors, but Pittsburgh position players are projected to rank 27th, ahead of only the White Sox, Marlins, and Rockies. That doesn¡¯t sound inaccurate to us.

7) A¡¯s (69-93), 13%

Why it will be them: Because if you were only focusing on the temporary move to Sacramento on the way to Las Vegas, then you missed a lot more entertaining baseball than you¡¯d expect from a 93-loss team. The A¡¯s played .500 ball in the second half, as Brent Rooker established himself as one of the game¡¯s better sluggers and Lawrence Butler¡¯s breakout made him one of 2025¡¯s most fascinating players to watch, while JJ Bleday made good on the promise that once led the Marlins to draft him fourth overall. Veterans Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs have arrived to reinforce a shaky rotation, while Osvaldo Bido was quietly excellent down the stretch. Oh, and they still have Mason Miller, the most dominant reliever in the sport. There is a ¡°higher level of expectation,¡± as newly extended manager Mark Kotsay said. He¡¯s not wrong.

Why it won¡¯t: Because there are three teams with far more recent success in their own division, making the path a narrow one, and it¡¯s not like the other divisions will lack for Wild Card contenders. The bullpen still has a ton of questions behind Miller. Either way, the A¡¯s could win 15 more games this year and still not get to .500, perhaps making 2025 a stepping stone on the way to more realistic contention in 2026. Like the Rays, it¡¯s unclear how playing in a temporary Minor League home will affect the team.

8) Angels (63-99), 9%

Why it will be them: Because Mike Trout is still there. We know that injuries have limited him to an average of 67 games per season since 2021, but he¡¯s still only 33 and the performance remains outstanding when he¡¯s available. Maybe the move to right field is what keeps him whole this time. Adding Yusei Kikuchi ought to help the rotation, same for Kenley Jansen in the bullpen, and Jos¨¦ Soriano was one of the better pitchers you didn¡¯t pay attention to last year. Everyone wants to see what infield prospect Christian Moore can do if and when he gets a shot this season.

Why it won¡¯t: They¡¯re still the weakest team in a deep division, and this club is coming off nine consecutive losing seasons and a franchise-record 99 losses. It doesn¡¯t help that shortstop Zach Neto, the best player on the team last year, may be delayed or limited coming off November right shoulder surgery. A lot has to go right here. That starts with Trout staying healthy all year, but even if that does happen, it may not translate into enough wins.