One of the great struggles we face as a people is trying to overcome emotionality with rationality.
Thankfully, baseball functions not just as an entertainment option but an instructor. It features the most emotionally and mentally taxing of any of the major professional sports. They play a month of fake games every day to get ready for six months of real games every day to decide who gets to possibly play another month of games just about every day to determine a champion.
If you can get through all that ¨C not just as a team but as a fan ¨C without letting your emotions get the best of you a time or 10, you have technically earned a transcendental meditation teaching certificate.
The rest of us overreact. Especially on opening weekend. To prove the point, each year I open the unofficial hub of emotionality -- social media app X -- and find some folks making bold declarations based off tiny samples. Some of them are on to something, some of them are overboard. Let¡¯s take a look and make the call.
(Some posts have been slightly edited for clarity.)
So the Yankees are cheating with these bats, right? -- @r1ckhouse
Fans weren¡¯t the only ones puzzled by the Yankees¡¯ unusual ¡°torpedo¡± sticks. They were a hot topic across the baseball world, players included.
This weekend we were all given a deeper understanding of Rule 3.02, which states that bats cannot be more than 2.61 inches in diameter and 42 inches in length. The Yankees¡¯ bats might look weird, but they¡¯re perfectly legit.
(They were also not the secret sauce to Aaron Judge¡¯s mammoth weekend. He hit his four homers with the same kind of bat he used to hit 62 in 2022 and 58 last year.)
The Yankees¡¯ bats were the brainchild of a former MIT physicist named Aaron Leanhardt who worked in the club¡¯s analytics department and has since left for the Marlins. He realized that you could craft a bat with more wood in the area where a particular player is more likely to hit the ball, given his swing path. That sound you could hear over the weekend was an entire industry of front-office people slapping their heads and saying, ¡°Why didn¡¯t I think of that?¡± But the Yankees aren't the only ones using them -- Junior Caminero recorded an infield single with one on Sunday and some Orioles players have "dabbled" -- and the bats aren't actually completely new, because the Bombers used them at times last year as well.
Why does it feel like the ¡°torpedo¡± is about to take baseball by storm.
(And why does it feel like maybe Judge might still be pretty good even without Juan Soto batting in front of him?)
Verdict: By rule, an overreaction
The Brewers are in serious trouble. -- @brodyspencer99
It¡¯s not that the Brewers lost an important bat and clubhouse presence in Willy Adames over the offseason. It¡¯s not that they traded closer Devin Williams. And it¡¯s not that their pitchers ¨C most especially Nestor Cortes ¨C were human pi?atas for the Yankees and their bats (both new and old) this weekend.
No, I¡¯m worried about the Brewers because, over the weekend, they designated and then traded away an outfielder named Brewer Hicklen to the Tigers (and for cash, not a tiger).
I don¡¯t know how you make a move like that without some cosmic comeuppance from the baseball gods.
Verdict: A well-brewed reaction
The Dodgers WILL set the single-season record for wins. -- @ericseanbreen1
Obviously, there are a million such predictions out there on the internets, and many of them preceded the first game of the season. The Dodgers have a roster utterly capable of taking down the 1906 Cubs¡¯ and 2001 Mariners¡¯ record of 116 regular-season wins and/or the 1998 Yankees¡¯ record of 125 wins in the regular and postseason combined. And they¡¯ve proved it so far by neatly going 5-0.
The most likely scenario is that the Dodgers take their foot off the gas in the home stretch and don¡¯t pursue the regular-season record. But bear in mind: The 2022 Dodgers won 111 games and had a plus-334 run differential (so, they outscored opponents, on average, by more than two runs per game) that, per the Pythagorean calculation available at Baseball-Reference, suggests they actually woulda/shoulda/coulda won 116. That was an objectively lesser roster than what the Dodgers have now. (And, it should be noted, that team lost to the Padres in the NL Division Series.)
I thought there might be a scenario in which the Dodgers are felled by a bunch of weird maladies, similar to the Springfield Nuclear Power Plant softball team assembled by Montgomery Burns. But Mookie Betts vomited for two weeks and then came back to hit a walk-off homer in extra innings on Friday, so that scenario is definitely not playing out so far.
If the Dodgers decide chasing 117 is worth it to them, they can absolutely do it.
Verdict: Bizarrely realistic reaction
Fire Scott Harris, fire A.J. Hinch, trade Tarik Skubal now. -- @Marbleeater420
This commenter has it all wrong. The Tigers should trade Skubal and THEN fire Harris and Hinch, so that the new regime does not have to absorb the blame for dealing the reigning Cy Young winner. Duh.
But hopefully this post was delivered in overzealous jest, because an 0-3 start on the road against a team as stacked as the Dodgers is nothing to sweat. Especially for a Tigers team that was four games under .500 as late as Aug. 22 last year and made the playoffs anyway. They¡¯ve got us right where they want us!
Verdict: Fire this reaction
I can¡¯t handle a Jos¨¦ Ram¨ªrez injury in game two. -- @insidecatman
Though they were able to take two of three from the Royals over the weekend in Kansas City, I¡¯m not sure the defending division champion Guardians could handle a serious Jos¨¦ Ram¨ªrez injury in game two, either. If you were making a list of the most irreplaceable players in the game ¨C accounting for the proven productivity available elsewhere on the roster ¨C then Ram¨ªrez is easily up there in the top five. He¡¯s appeared in almost 94% of this team¡¯s games played dating back to 2016, getting MVP votes in eight of the last nine seasons.
Fortunately, what we know about the right wrist sprain Ram¨ªrez suffered over the weekend indicates it is manageable. The imaging was negative, and he¡¯s day to day. But Ram¨ªrez¡¯s quick hands/wrists are one of his most important attributes, the separators for this undersized superstar. He admirably played through a torn right thumb ligament in the second half of 2022, and there¡¯s little doubt he¡¯ll grind his way through this issue however long it lingers. But the Guardians, whose offseason following an ALCS appearance was unconvincing on the offensive side of the ball, have to be uber-protective of their most precious asset.
Verdict: I can¡¯t handle overreactions, but this one was understandable
MacKenzie Gore is a Cy Young candidate. -- @samwhitecomedy
Right now, no question. If the season was suddenly cut short because of a ballpark-wide takeover by brown marmorated stink bugs, Gore would be worthy of the NL Cy Young by virtue of the most dominant pitching performance of the weekend ¨C six scoreless innings with one hit, zero walks and 13 strikeouts for the Nationals against a dangerous Phillies lineup. The only other pitcher with 13 K¡¯s and no walks in a scoreless outing on Opening Day was Bob Gibson in 1967.
That ¡¯67 season turned out to be pretty special for Gibson. So what about Gore?
With the usual stipulation that any pitcher can get hurt, even as I¡¯m typing this, it¡¯s not overambitious to think big thoughts about a 26-year-old who posted the third-highest average fastball velo (96 mph) among lefty starters last year, behind only AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal and breakout star Garrett Crochet. Gore, a key acquisition in the Nats¡¯ trade of Juan Soto, also has a sharp curve. But it was his slider, which generated an 80% whiff rate in 23 uses, that was the real revelation in the opener. Gore only threw the slider 1.3% of the time in a solid 2024 season, but this looked like a different pitch, with more side-to-side action. He¡¯s one to watch.
Verdict: Not a MacKrazie reaction
Shota Imanaga is the best Japanese pitcher in the league and it¡¯s not close at the moment. -- @kheezy69
Because of their young ages, there was a tremendous amount of hype attached to the MLB arrivals of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki to the Dodgers. Yamamoto eclipsed Gerrit Cole¡¯s record pitching contract without ever having thrown an inning in MLB, while Sasaki¡¯s modest posting price and 2001 birthdate made him coveted by the vast majority of teams.
Imanaga¡¯s entry was much more modest. The Cubs signed him for four years and $53 million entering his age-30 season last year, and many evaluators saw him as a solid mid- to back-end rotation type, not an ace.
He¡¯s pitched like an ace. We saw it when he held the deep D-backs to a run on three hits with two walks and four strikeouts in seven innings on Saturday. Among those with at least 180 innings since the start of 2024, Imanaga¡¯s 144 ERA+ trails only that of Chris Sale (169), Tarik Skubal (162) and Zack Wheeler (161). Marquee Sports Network statistician extraordinaire Christopher Kamka had this great note: In his 31 MLB starts, Imanaga has had 15 in which he¡¯s allowed one or zero runs, and the Cubs are 24-7 in his starts.
I don¡¯t know that I¡¯d go as far as this commenter that ¡°it¡¯s not close,¡± because Yamamoto is off to a great start and was nails in the World Series. But Yamamoto does have durability questions, while Sasaki has shown, as he told teams, that he¡¯s an unfinished product. Meanwhile, Imanaga chugs along, deserving a lot more hype than he¡¯s received over here.
Verdict: Statistically defensible reaction
The Astros¡¯ rotation continues to be elite. It is why the club will be in the playoffs again. -- @TalkinStros
The Astros¡¯ starting staff was, uncharacteristically, a mess in the mathematical first half last year. It had the seventh-worst ERA in the Majors through June 18, with serious depth issues as Justin Verlander, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., J.P. France, Jos¨¦ Urquidy and Luis Garcia were all on the shelf.
By season¡¯s end, however, the Astros were right back where we have come to expect them to be, in the playoffs. They got there because Framber Valdez shook off an iffy start, Hunter Brown broke out and Yusei Kikuchi turned out to be a mammoth addition at the Deadline.
With Kikuchi gone in free agency, the Astros projected to be a solid but not spectacular starting staff this year. But their starters had a really strong weekend against Juan Soto¡¯s Mets ¨C three earned runs allowed and 16 strikeouts in 19 innings. You can probably bank on big things from Valdez and Brown, but Spencer Arrighetti¡¯s six terrific innings were probably the best thing to come out of the weekend for the ¡®Stros. He had some bad batted-ball luck last year. If he improves his command, he¡¯s a breakout candidate, and I would like the Astros¡¯ chances of reaching October again despite an offseason overhaul.
Verdict: Too early for words like ¡°elite¡± and ¡°playoffs¡± but justifiable reaction
¡°Paul Skenes throws a no-hitter as the Pirates lose another one.¡± -- @miserablejagfan
In case you feel like you missed something, no, Skenes did not throw a no-hitter, but this one made me laugh.
Skenes was decent on Opening Day against the Marlins ¨C two runs on three hits with two walks and seven strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings. But the Pirates¡¯ bullpen and defense blew it, and they lost, 5-4, in walk-off fashion.
This is the objectively rational concern associated with Skenes¡¯ sophomore season. The Pirates have a generational pitcher and, with top prospect Bubba Chandler looming, maybe even a generational rotation in the making (though Jared Jones¡¯ late-spring elbow injury isn¡¯t helping the cause). Alas, they didn¡¯t do much to amplify the offense and bullpen, both of which were decidedly lower-tier in 2024.
The Pirates do have 15 steals through four games, seven more than any other team. Perhaps speed and aggression can help them outperform expectations offensively, and perhaps the bullpen bounces back. But it was definitely a bummer to go into a season fearing that Skenes, who is appointment viewing, won¡¯t have the support he deserves and then have it play out on day one.
(For the record, there have been six times a team lost despite throwing a no-hitter. I personally think it¡¯s more likely Skenes throws nine no-hit innings in a scoreless tie and the bullpen gives it up in the 10th)
Verdict: Overreaction, but I understand what this guy Skenes, er, means
Rafael Devers being so upset that he has to DH and purposely striking out every at-bat isn¡¯t being talked about enough. -- @ImSlydenn
This spring, an MLB manager told me he had seen a weird YouTube video that claimed that Finland is not a real country or even an actual mass of land.
So this isn¡¯t the craziest conspiracy theory I¡¯ve heard lately.
But no, I don¡¯t think Devers is tanking out of anger at being displaced at third base by Alex Bregman. He¡¯s 0-for-16 with 12 strikeouts ¨C a historically terrible start (the most K¡¯s on record through four games in a season). But given that he¡¯s never been a full-time DH and he had a late start to his spring exhibition season because of shoulder issues, I¡¯m going to give him some grace and you should, too. Let¡¯s not be like the Boston radio talking head who proclaimed Kristian Campbell wasn¡¯t ready for the big leagues after Opening Day, only to watch Campbell go 5-for-11 with a homer in the next three games.
Verdict: An overreaction that better not become a YouTube video