Analyzing the trade market with 2 weeks to go before Spring Training

January 30th, 2025

Two notable relief pitchers were traded this week, as Ryan Pressly was dealt from the Astros to the Cubs and Taylor Rogers went from the Giants to the Reds.

Yet the trade market -- at least for the biggest names that have reportedly been available this offseason -- has become relatively stagnant, with two weeks left until pitchers and catchers report to Florida and Arizona.

¡°I think most clubs are wary of shaking things up too much right before camp opens,¡± a National League executive said.

There have been a number of noteworthy deals this winter, with Kyle Tucker, Garrett Crochet, Cody Bellinger, Devin Williams, Josh Naylor, Jes¨²s Luzardo, Brady Singer, Jonathan India, Gavin Lux and Andr¨¦s Gim¨¦nez all changing teams. Other than the Reds¡¯ acquisition of Lux from the Dodgers, all of those trades took place before the end of 2024, making for an inactive January on the trade market.

The biggest remaining potential trade candidates include Dylan Cease and Michael King of the Padres, Nolan Arenado of the Cardinals, Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox and Luis Castillo of the Mariners, though according to sources, none appear particularly close to being dealt.

¡°San Diego is the wild card,¡± an American League executive said.

The idea of the Padres moving Cease or King might have made perfect sense had San Diego landed Roki Sasaki, but the Japanese phenom signed with the rival Dodgers. The Padres¡¯ rotation currently consists of Cease, King, Yu Darvish, Randy V¨¢squez and Matt Waldron, with Joe Musgrove likely missing the entire season following Tommy John surgery. Trading Cease or King would create another sizable hole in San Diego¡¯s rotation.

One working theory on the slow trade market: with more than 100 free agents still searching for jobs, there¡¯s a belief among some clubs that some value signings may present themselves the closer we get to Spring Training.

¡°Agents are starting to scramble a bit for the guys who don¡¯t have jobs,¡± an NL executive said. ¡°There will be a mad rush at some point, particularly on the reliever market.¡±

An AL exec didn¡¯t subscribe to that theory, however, noting that if free-agent prices were coming down, more players would be coming off the board.

¡°I don¡¯t think there¡¯s been much indication of bargains thus far,¡± the AL exec said. ¡°It¡¯s always hard to know if or when that will shift. It all feels normal to me; ebbs and flows.¡±

Busy offseason for Cincy

The Reds have spent less than $30 million in free agency this winter, yet Cincinnati¡¯s offseason has been one of the most interesting in the league.

Not in position to bid for the likes of Juan Soto, Max Fried, Corbin Burnes or Willy Adames, Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall has been creative in turning over about 25% of the roster with trades and smaller free-agent signings.

¡°Nick has done a really nice job making over a roster that had plenty of talent already,¡± an AL executive said. ¡°He made really nice, strategic moves.¡±

The offseason began with the re-signing of lefty reliever Brent Suter to a one-year, $2.5 million deal. Less than two weeks later, Nick Martinez accepted a $21.05 million qualifying offer, accounting for a chunk of the money Cincinnati would have had to spend in free agency.

Krall went into trade mode, sending Jonathan India to the Royals for Brady Singer, adding a much-needed arm to the rotation. A month later, the Reds acquired catcher Jose Trevino from the Yankees, then dealt for Dodgers infielder Gavin Lux.

Earlier this week, the Reds signed Austin Hays to a one-year, $5 million deal, then signed veteran starter Wade Miley and traded for Rogers in a deal with the Giants.

¡°A lot of depth/complementary additions,¡± an AL exec said. ¡°They need their young core to take a step. [New manager Terry Francona] will help a lot there.¡±

Cincinnati¡¯s offseason has some similarities to the moves the Royals made a year ago. Coming off of a 106-loss campaign in 2023, Kansas City signed free agents Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Hunter Renfroe, Adam Frazier, Chris Stratton and Will Smith, importing a number of new players for approximately $110 million.

¡°That¡¯s a good comp,¡± an AL exec said. ¡°Now they need Elly [De La Cruz] to do what Bobby [Witt Jr.] did.¡±

The Reds hovered around .500 for much of 2024, finishing 77-85, 16 games behind the first-place Brewers. Milwaukee hasn¡¯t done a lot to improve its roster this offseason, but the Cubs have made moves with the intent of reclaiming the NL Central. Still, the division could be wide open, so it will be interesting to see whether Cincinnati¡¯s flurry of moves will be enough to contend.

¡°Their approach to the offseason is indicative of a club that feels pressure to compete now,¡± an NL executive said. ¡°Though it¡¯s unclear how much they have actually improved in spite of the high volume of moves.¡±

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