Who will be the Orioles' ace in 2025?

December 28th, 2024

This story was excerpted from Jake Rill's Orioles Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

BALTIMORE -- The news broke in the wee hours of Saturday morning.

Corbin Burnes will be living at his home in Arizona next season, as the 30-year-old right-hander has agreed to a six-year, $210 million contract with the D-backs that includes an opt-out clause following the 2026 campaign, a source told MLB.com¡¯s Mark Feinsand.

The deal isn¡¯t yet official. However, it¡¯s now known that Burnes¡¯ time in Baltimore is over.

Many Orioles fans had remained optimistic in recent weeks that a reunion with Burnes was still possible. A hole opened at the top of the rotation once Burnes became a free agent, and the O¡¯s seemed better positioned to spend money this offseason because of their David Rubenstein-led ownership group that took over in March.

Burnes, who was traded from Milwaukee to Baltimore last Feb. 1, was terrific for the Orioles during his 2024 All-Star campaign. He recorded a 2.92 ERA and a 1.096 WHIP in 194 1/3 innings over 32 outings -- 22 of which were quality starts -- putting together one of the best seasons by a starting pitcher in franchise history.

It was a tremendous start to Burnes¡¯ tenure with the O¡¯s. It was also the conclusion to a one-year stint.

So the big question now facing the Burnes-less Orioles with the calendar about to turn to 2025 is this: Who will be the No. 1 starter in the rotation next season?

Before Burnes arrived in Baltimore, manager Brandon Hyde never had the luxury of a true No. 1 ace atop the rotation during his six-year tenure.

¡°There's 30 teams that would love to have it,¡± Hyde said during the Winter Meetings in Dallas earlier this month. ¡°But there's only so many of those guys out there.¡±

There weren¡¯t a ton of available aces in free agency this offseason, and there are even fewer starting pitchers remaining now. Burnes (D-backs), Blake Snell (Dodgers), Max Fried (Yankees), Shane Bieber (Guardians), Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers), Michael Wacha (Royals), Clay Holmes (Mets), Yusei Kikuchi (Angels) and Sean Manaea (Mets) are all off the market.

The top remaining starters include righties Jack Flaherty, Nick Pivetta and Max Scherzer.

Flaherty posted a 3.17 ERA over 28 starts for the Tigers and Dodgers this past season. But the 29-year-old didn¡¯t fare nearly as well during a stint with the Orioles in the second half of 2023. After getting dealt from St. Louis to Baltimore ahead of the Trade Deadline that year, he struggled to a 6.75 ERA in nine games (seven starts).

The 31-year-old Pivetta is also an unlikely target for the O¡¯s, because he declined a qualifying offer from Boston earlier this offseason, so a team must part with a Draft pick in order to sign him. Meanwhile, Scherzer will turn 41 in July and has dealt with various injuries in recent years.

The Orioles signed Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano to a one-year, $13 million deal on Dec. 16, and the 35-year-old should slot nicely toward the back end of the rotation. But he¡¯s not the ace Baltimore¡¯s rotation is lacking.

Perhaps the Orioles could explore a trade for somebody such as Padres right-hander Dylan Cease or Mariners righty Luis Castillo, two pitchers the club has been linked to in rumors this offseason. However, those teams would have to make the pitchers available.

Also, Baltimore¡¯s farm system isn¡¯t quite as loaded as it was this time last year -- due to multiple trades it has made since -- though it still has plenty of talent it could offer as trade chips.

Righties Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer are the O¡¯s top returning starters. Sugano is now also in the mix, which includes righties Albert Su¨¢rez, Chayce McDermott (Baltimore¡¯s No. 5 prospect per MLB Pipeline) and Brandon Young (O¡¯s No. 18 prospect), as well as lefties Cade Povich and Trevor Rogers.

Righties Kyle Bradish (Tommy John surgery) and Tyler Wells (UCL reconstruction) will open the season on the injured list.

Maybe a future ace is already on the Orioles¡¯ roster.

¡°If you don't have that true No. 1 type of guy, you have guys that can improve also,¡± Hyde said. ¡°I think Grayson's got No. 1 stuff. Grayson could be that guy. Next year, he takes that next step forward -- I look for him to take a big step forward next year.¡±

It¡¯s certainly possible. But Baltimore would be wise to make every effort to land a proven ace before Spring Training arrives. And with re-signing Burnes no longer an option, it feels like finding a trade partner could be the only avenue for the O¡¯s to make that happen.

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