The 5 defining storylines for Padres-Mets Game 3

October 9th, 2022

Alas, we only ended up with one deciding game in the Wild Card Series on Sunday. Congratulations to the Mariners, Guardians and Phillies: We hope they enjoy their days off, as much fun as it might have been to see four win-or-go-home games on the schedule.

But one is plenty, and it is certainly better than none. Here are five primary storylines for Sunday¡¯s Game 3 between the Mets and the Padres at Citi Field, pitting Joe Musgrove against Chris Bassitt with an NL Division Series showdown with the Dodgers awaiting the winner.

1) Is Juan Soto going to have his moment?

Look, we all know that baseball is a team sport, and that one man can only do so much. After all: Look at how much the Nationals struggled the past couple of seasons despite having at his best in their lineup. That said, the Padres gave up a whole bunch of talent -- talent that¡¯s going to be populating the Nationals' roster for the next half-decade or so -- for the right to have Soto on their team for three potential postseasons.

Soto has been a little underwhelming, all told, since coming to San Diego (.778 OPS in 52 regular-season games with San Diego), and he grounded out meekly against the Mets' in the seventh inning of Game 2 on Saturday with the tying run on second. But Soto could make everyone forget his struggles with one big moment.

2) Is D¨ªaz available? If not, what happens then?

D¨ªaz [cue trumpet fanfare] has had a bit of an all-timer of a season, so it would have felt strange if the Mets hadn¡¯t used him at all in their first two games of the postseason. But you can certainly make the argument that manager Buck Showalter was maybe a little too aggressive with him in Game 2.

D¨ªaz came on to open the seventh inning in relief of and threw 1 2/3 innings and 28 pitches, a number he reached only three times all year, and hadn't since Aug. 4. In all three of those outings in which he threw 28 or more pitches, he did not pitch the next day. Twenty-eight pitches is a lot of pitches to throw in a game the Mets won by four runs, that¡¯s what we¡¯re saying. If the Mets have a one-run lead heading into the ninth on Sunday, will Showalter bring in D¨ªaz? If he does, will he be his usual self? If he doesn¡¯t, who will he bring in? (Adam Ottavino threw 35 pitches himself in Game 2 and looked shaky.)

This is the sort of game you¡¯d love to rely on one of your two starting pitching aces. But you¡¯ve already used them. You can see why Showalter leaned so hard on his 'pen in Game 2: It was an elimination game, after all. But now Buck and the Mets have to go and win Game 3 with neither one of their aces ... and a possibly compromised D¨ªaz.

3) Speaking of ace relievers ... when will we see Josh Hader?

There was a strange moment at the end of Game 1 when the Padres began warming up ,?despite their big lead, in the ninth inning. He didn¡¯t end up appearing, and the Padres didn¡¯t need him in Game 2 either. It is all but certain he will appear in Game 3.

If you didn¡¯t pay attention to the Padres after the first two weeks following their big trade with Milwaukee, you should know that Hader looked much more like his old self over the final month of the season, largely because the Padres went back to giving him plenty of rest and not overextending him. From Sept. 1 onward, Hader allowed just six baserunners over 10 1/3 innings, striking out 13.

Well, there¡¯s no question he¡¯s had plenty of rest by this point. The only question is when the Padres deploy him. A fascinating subplot here is that the Mets could have Francisco ?lvarez, the top prospect in baseball according to MLB Pipeline, waiting in the wings to pinch-hit against Hader. ?lvarez -- who was put on the postseason roster to mostly face lefties -- made a pinch-hitting appearance in Game 1, and a potential matchup between Hader and the wunderkind is the stuff of October lore.

4) How many Mets free agents might be suiting up for their last game in Queens?

deGrom has received most of the press as a likely opt-out, but the Mets actually have a ton of players who are becoming free agents and might be playing their last game as a Met. And unlike deGrom, they could be a huge part of Game 3.

D¨ªaz is the obvious one, but there¡¯s also Brandon Nimmo. Taijuan Walker, who was just added to the roster as an injury replacement for Joely Rodr¨ªguez prior to Game 2, could very well be the first man out of the 'pen on Sunday, and he has a $6 million player option he is likely to decline. And let us not forget that Bassitt, the Game 3 starter and an underappreciated trade acquisition from Oakland last winter, has a $18 million mutual option he could very well choose to turn down in favor of hitting the market.

And in addition to all of those names, Ottavino, Seth Lugo, and Trevor May (all of whom could be called upon on Sunday night) will also be free agents.

5) Who goes home devastated?

Every team is sad when its season ends. The Rays, Blue Jays and Cardinals are totally bummed right now. But boy, these two teams sure have gone in pretty hard on 2022. The Padres traded away the best parts of their farm system to bring in Soto, hoping to pair him with Manny Machado and, um, Fernando Tatis Jr. (who, we should mention, has a game knocked off his suspension next year with every Padres postseason game), as they tried to finally win their franchise¡¯s first World Series. They only get so many tries at this.

But the Mets, wow, if the Mets have a glorious season like this one -- they won 101 games! -- and don¡¯t get out of the Wild Card Series, particularly when they suffered a sweep to the Braves down the stretch that effectively lost the NL East and relegated them to having to play this series with San Diego in the first place, it will be a particularly tough pill for them and their fans to swallow.

Both teams have moved heaven and earth to try to win, right now, this year. One of them is about to have their season end on Sunday night.

That¡¯s the fun of this format. It¡¯s also the terror of it.

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