How is Alonso's market shaping up?
For all the chatter that has surrounded the top players on this year*s free-agent market, the buzz around one notable name has been relatively quiet: Pete Alonso.
The Polar Bear has been one of the top power hitters in the game since he broke into the Majors in 2019, slugging 226 home runs -- more than anyone not named Aaron Judge -- while posting at least 4.0 bWAR in three of his five full seasons.
Yet as we race toward Christmas, the market for Alonso has been eerily quiet. Why has that been the case?
Among the teams seeking help at first base are the Yankees, Mets, Mariners, Astros and D-backs, none of whom appears inclined to make Alonso the type of offer he*s seeking -- at least not right now. With Christian Walker, Paul Goldschmidt and Carlos Santana also available on the free-agent market and would-be trade candidates including Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Naylor and Yandy D赤az potentially in play, there are a number of options for teams to consider.
Alonso reportedly turned down a seven-year, $158 million extension offer from the Mets in 2023, so after earning $20.5 million in '24, he would need to land a six-year deal worth roughly $137.5 million in order to justify that decision.
That should be attainable for the 30-year-old, though he may have to wait until January or February to secure such a deal given the wealth of options at the position.
A number of other top free agents remain available, including Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hern芍ndez, Tanner Scott, Sean Manaea and Jurickson Profar, leaving teams with payroll flexibility a variety of ways to spend.
First basemen were among the highest-paid players in the game as recently as a decade ago, when players including Miguel Cabrera ($248 million), Albert Pujols ($240 million), Joey Votto ($225 million) and Prince Fielder ($214 million) all landed deals worth more than $200 million between 2012-16.
That hasn*t been the case in the 2020s. Matt Olson*s $168 million extension with the Braves and Freddie Freeman*s $162 million free-agent deal with the Dodgers have paced the first-base market in recent years. Of the 10 first-base contracts in history with the highest average annual value, only Freeman, Olson and Goldschmidt (5 years, $130 million) have signed since 2020.
The Yankees have been busy since losing Juan Soto to the Mets, signing Max Fried to an eight-year, $218 million deal before swinging trades for Devin Williams and Cody Bellinger. It remains to be seen whether New York will spend big to fill its vacancy at first base, but the Yankees are keeping all options open on both the free-agent and trade markets.
※I can just say I've talked to Scott Boras about his inventory that fits our club,§ Cashman said Wednesday. ※Obviously [Alonso] plays first base, and that's a potential vacancy, so it's a conversation that we've had. I've also talked to him about other players on his roster, both on the position players side, pitching side, that do fit. Not just him, other agents, and same with players in the trade portal.§
The Astros remain engaged with Alex Bregman, whose return to Houston would mean shifting the newly acquired Isaac Paredes to first base. The more likely scenario is for the Astros to acquire a first baseman and play Paredes at third, but Alonso might be out of Houston*s price range.
Seattle is looking to upgrade their lineup, but unless the Mariners are able to move some money in a trade 每 Luis Castillo, perhaps? 每 it seems unlikely that they would bring in a nine-figure free agent.
If the D-backs are going to spend big on a first baseman, it would make sense for them to simply bring back Walker, who has thrived in Arizona the past three seasons.
That brings us back to the Mets, who caught the offseason*s biggest fish with their $765 million deal with Soto. Steve Cohen*s team may very well wind up bringing Alonso back to New York, but the Mets appear to be content to let his free agency play out over the coming weeks before making any big offer. Industry sources have speculated that Alonso could sign a five-year deal worth between $125-140 million to return to the Mets, with an opt-out clause after the first and/or second year of the deal, giving him an opportunity to test free agency again if he believes there is a better market after 2025 or '26.
One American League executive called Alonso ※a complicated player,§ noting some of the drawbacks to his free-agent r谷sum谷.
※He*s in his 30s and is a right-handed first baseman who is good 每 but probably had his best year already,§ the executive said. ※He*s not a defender and not an athlete, but he has no issue with the spotlight; he hits homers and hits them in big spots. He*s a tough one.§
Alonso*s OPS has fallen from .869 to .821 to .788 over the past two years, while his strikeout percentage (24.7) this past season was his highest since 2020, marking the second straight year in which that number has risen. Alonso*s defense has been consistently poor throughout his career, but his -9 outs above average in 2024 was his worst mark in six big-league seasons.
※Pete is in a tough spot,§ one National League executive said. ※There doesn*t seem to be a big market for him because of his defense, and with so many first basemen out there, nobody is in a rush to overpay any of them.§
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? FA guides: Burnes | Alonso | Bregman | Santander
? Offseason dates, rules & terms explained
Why have teams stopped showing first basemen the money the way they did in the 2010s? The position has become baseball*s equivalent of the running back in the NFL: one many clubs believe can be filled without spending big.
The numbers back up that theory. Of the top 10 first basemen last season in terms of salary, only Bryce Harper, Freeman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Olson finished in the top 10 in fWAR at the position. The other six 每 Santana ($5.25 million), Walker ($10.9 million), Lowe ($7.5 million), Michael Busch ($741,500), D赤az ($7.74 million) and Josh Naylor ($6.5 million) 每 each cost substantially less in 2024.
So while Soto and Willy Adames have cashed in with huge deals this offseason, it doesn*t appear to be a coincidence that no free-agent first baseman had signed as of Thursday.
Alonso may eventually find the deal he*s looking for, though it looks like he may have to wait at least a few more weeks before that happens.