Diving into the Phils' plan to stay the course at Winter Meetings
This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki¡¯s Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
PHILADELPHIA -- Two years ago, the Phillies promised to ¡°push the needle¡± following the team¡¯s run to the 2022 World Series.
Then, on the very first day of that year¡¯s Winter Meetings in San Diego, they agreed to an 11-year, $300 million contract with Trea Turner.
The Phils aren¡¯t expected to push the needle that far at next week¡¯s Winter Meetings in Dallas. Despite the team¡¯s shortcomings in each of the past two postseasons, they believe they have a talented enough core to win a World Series.
They just need to improve the supporting cast.
That¡¯s why the Phillies not only have not met with free-agent superstar Juan Soto, but they have not made him an offer, according to sources. That shouldn¡¯t surprise anybody who has listened to the words of Phillies managing partner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski since the end of the season.
¡°The way I look at it is we have a very good team,¡± Dombrowski said this week. ¡°We won a lot of games last year. We won our division. We basically have mostly our whole club back. We¡¯re not an aged club. I look at us as having a very good club going into next year. We¡¯ve got four starting pitchers at the top of the rotation who are as good as anybody¡¯s. We have a good offensive balance from the right-handed side and left-handed side.
¡°We need to fill a bullpen spot. But we have a really good club. We didn¡¯t play well against the Mets. But the reality is we have a really good club and I think we¡¯ll have a really good club next year.¡±
Key Events
- Sunday: HOF Classic Baseball Era Committee results released
- Tuesday: MLB Draft Lottery
- Wednesday: Rule 5 Draft?
Club Needs
Outfield
The Phillies want to improve a lineup that has not produced at the worst possible times (i.e. majority of the final five games of the 2023 NLCS and the 2024 NLDS). The most obvious path is left field or center field with Nick Castellanos expected again to be the everyday right fielder. Brandon Marsh is expected to play left or center, with the newcomer taking the remaining spot. Johan Rojas could be in the mix, if he shows improvement offensively.
Closer
Maybe it¡¯s not a closer in the traditional sense, but the Phillies need a right-handed reliever to pitch in the late innings, with both Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez becoming free agents. The Phillies could re-sign one of them. Or they could acquire somebody else in free agency or via trade, like Devin Williams or Ryan Helsley. But Dombrowski said the Phils are unlikely to acquire two relievers to take the spots of Hoffman and Est¨¦vez.
Rotation Depth
Dombrowski cited the team¡¯s struggles with the No. 5 spot in the rotation, plus Ranger Su¨¢rez¡¯s health issues in the second half, as reasons for the team¡¯s late-season struggles. The Phillies need to find somebody to be a competent No. 5 starter, at least until the club¡¯s top pitching prospect, Andrew Painter, is ready to join the team.
Potential Trade Candidates
Everybody has seen third baseman Alec Bohm¡¯s name mentioned in trade rumors. Yes, the Phils have discussed dealing Bohm. But they¡¯ve talked about others, too, including Su¨¢rez and Castellanos. Why would Bohm and Su¨¢rez be atop the Phillies¡¯ list? Because they provide the most value to other teams. Who wouldn¡¯t want an All-Star third baseman with two years of team control? Who wouldn¡¯t want an All-Star left-handed starter who is often brilliant when healthy?
Prospects to Know
RHP Andrew Painter (Phillies No. 2 prospect, No. 32 overall)
Expect Painter to join the Phillies at some point next season, assuming he is healthy and effective as he builds up following Tommy John surgery in 2023. There is almost no chance Painter opens the season with the team because of workload considerations, but there is no doubt the Phils think he can help them make the postseason.
CF Justin Crawford (Phillies No. 3 prospect, No. 53 overall)
It is less likely that Crawford helps the Phillies next year, but Dombrowski cracked open the door in October when he said Crawford could push for a promotion.
Rule 5 Draft
The Phillies have selected only one player in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft since 2020: Boston right-hander Noah Song in 2022.?They haven¡¯t had a Rule 5 pick make the team since outfielder Tyler Goeddel in 2015. Sure, the Phillies could take a high-upside reliever next week, but they are trying to win a World Series, so it¡¯s difficult imagining them carrying a project in the bullpen or on the bench the entire season. Pitching prospects like Griff McGarry (No. 21), Christian McGowan (No. 22), Eiberson Castellano and Tristan Garnett could be selected by other teams.
Burning Question
Everybody expects the Phillies to do something significant this offseason, but what exactly will it be? If they trade Bohm, they need a third baseman. If they trade Su¨¢rez, they need another starter. If they don¡¯t trade a player from the big league roster, do they trade prospects like Painter, Crawford or Aidan Miller (Phils¡¯ No. 1 prospect, No. 26 overall)? There are so many ways the Phillies might go, which is why the club has talked about being as open-minded as possible this offseason. Expect the unexpected.