With all four full-season Minor League affiliates now underway, and the amateur season (i.e. the 2025 Draft class) going full tilt for some time now, there¡¯s plenty to talk about. This week¡¯s MLB Pipeline Inbox takes a look at some top prospects in the Minors, the start of the lower level leagues, talented Minor League clubs, and high school infielders.
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Do you think this crop of high school SS this year measures up to the 2021 and 2019 classes? ¨C @miami_or_nothin
As we discussed on this week¡¯s MLB Pipeline Podcast and Jim Callis wrote in last week¡¯s Inbox, the strength of this year¡¯s class is undoubtedly high school infielders. There could be as many as 14 prepsters who play on the dirt cracking the first round in July. Billy Carlson, Kayson Cunningham, Eli Willits, JoJo Parker, Nick Becker, Steele Hall ¡ it¡¯s a long list of guys who could be first-rounders, and those are just guys who have a chance to stick at short, leaving out those like potential No. 1 pick Ethan Holliday, Sean Gamble and others who might fit better at third, second or the outfield.
The 2021 Draft featured six high schoolers who were shortstops when they were drafted in the first round: Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Brady House, Kahlil Watson, Colson Montgomery and Carson Williams. Four of those six are in our Top 100 currently, with Williams, Lawlar and Mayer in the top 11. No. 89 overall prospect Edwin Arroyo was a second-rounder.
Back in 2019, there were four prep shortstops taken in the first round, led by No. 2 overall pick Bobby Witt Jr. He was followed by CJ Abrams, Keoni Cavaco and Anthony Volpe. Add in Gunnar Henderson as a second-rounder and that¡¯s a very good class, too.
Overall, I do think this year¡¯s class measures up, but more because of its depth than elite-level ability. That obviously can change as these high schoolers enter pro ball, but while Holliday and maybe Carlson are top 10 picks, there isn¡¯t quite the ¡°star power¡± of a Witt (Holliday might be the exception, but he¡¯s not expected to play short at the next level) or the tools that seem like top 10 or 11 overall prospects in the game, as there were from that 2021 class.
Why aren't the experts higher on Justin Crawford? Also, Ethan Salas and Eduardo Tait are the same age, playing the same position. To this point, Tait's numbers are far better than Salas. Yet, Salas is considered can't-miss, and Tait is not even a top-10 C prospect ¨C @Coach_Whacko
I am one expert who is quite high on Justin Crawford, thank you very much. And to be fair, he is No. 61 on our Top 100, which isn¡¯t nothing. But I understand what you¡¯re getting at given that he¡¯s in Triple-A and only 21 and has a career .315/.369/.439 line. The biggest reason that some aren¡¯t totally sold is his ground-ball rate. It¡¯s currently at 64.9 percent for his career in the Minors. By comparison, the MLB average so far this year is around 44 percent.
The good news is that Crawford reduced his GB rate in 2024 (60.9 percent vs. 69.7 in 2023) and he continues to hit the ball hard. (His 53.8 percent hard-hit rate in Triple-A so far this year is above average compared to MLB numbers and his average exit velocity has been 93.8 mph.) But in the big leagues he won¡¯t be able to outrun ground balls as much as he has in the Minors, so his ability to keep driving the ball needs to keep improving. I¡¯m a believer, though.
As for your catching question (you¡¯re not a Phillies fan by any chance, are you?), it¡¯s a fair point. Tait is on the Top 100 and not far off of that Top 10 catchers list. I think he¡¯ll climb on there soon enough. But Salas is a superior defender and is more advanced overall. It¡¯s a little unfair to compare their numbers because the Padres pushed Salas so aggressively. While Tait made stops in the Dominican Summer League and Florida Complex League (and, to his credit, hit everywhere), Salas made his pro debut in full-season ball and is now two levels ahead of Tait in Double-A. It¡¯s possible that we may look back and Tait is as good as Salas, but I think this is the year Salas¡¯ performance starts catching up to his pedigree.
Which prospect stats from A, A+, and AA surprised you the most? ¨C @StevieDAles97
This is a way to get into ¡°Sample Size Theater.¡± The non Triple-A levels have only been going on for a week, so it¡¯s not like we¡¯re going to draw conclusions from anything that¡¯s happened there. But here are a few stat-lines from each of those levels that jumped out to me.
Double-A: Griff McGarry, 4 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 8 K - OK, he¡¯s 25 and no longer on the Phillies¡¯ Top 30 and back in Double-A, but this is a guy with a career walk rate of 6.6/9 in his Minor League career.
High-A: Lazaro Montes, .429/.609/1.143 - It¡¯s not surprising that the Mariners outfielder is mashing; that¡¯s what he usually does. But the 20-year old is second among all High-A hitters with his 1.752 OPS and he somehow has two triples to his name after hitting four in the last two years, combined.
Single-A: Byron Chourio, 10 walks -- That¡¯s Jackson¡¯s brother, by the way. And the Twins prospect has 10 walks over his first five games. That puts him in a tie for fifth among all Minor Leaguers, with everyone else on that leaderboard in Triple-A, which has been going on for two weeks. He¡¯s hitting .357/.625/.429 so far.
Which minor league team is the most talented in 2025? ¨C @blahbla92342524.bsky.social
Luckily, we have a story that answers that question. Here¡¯s our look at the Top 10 most stacked Minor League rosters. The Iowa Cubs are a very good choice for the top spot, but my personal favorite are the Everett AquaSox, with the aforementioned Montes joining guys like Colt Emerson and Michael Arroyo.