Inbox: How close is Nats' Wood to The Show?
Jim Callis
@JimCallisMLBHappy Paul Skenes Eve, everyone! Let's get to your questions ...
James Wood has homered three times in the last two days, boosting his Triple-A line to .344/.443/.552 with five blasts and nine steals in 32 games. After the outfielder's strikeout rate jumped to 32 percent last year, he has reduced it to a more palatable 20 percent this spring. Currently ranked No. 12 on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 Prospects list, he'll make a nice jump when we reveal our first in-season update on Monday.
After Wood's two-homer game on Wednesday, Nationals manager Dave Martinez noted his impressive play but also mentioned that the organization wants to see more progress before considering a big league callup. Martinez cited more at-bats (Wood has 975 in four years as a pro), adjustments to better handle left-handers and improved baserunning as three items on the 21-year-old's to-do list.
Despite middle-of-the-pack production from their outfielders, the Nationals are off to an 18-18 start and are currently tied for the final spot in what should be a wide-open National League Wild Card race. They're still more of a longshot for the playoffs than a true contender, so I see them giving Wood plenty of time to develop. He probably won't surface until mid-August unless Washington makes a stronger run at the postseason.
Two questions in one! But I have a full-blown case of Draft fever, so I'll allow it.
Catholic HS (Baton Rouge, La.) right-hander William Schmidt has a high-spin curveball that ranks as the best in the Draft, sits in the mid-90s and touches 99 with his fastball and shows some feel for a sinking changeup. He generates his premium stuff with ease and provides plenty of strikes, and that total package makes him the best high school pitching prospect this spring. Saguaro HS (Scottsdale, Ariz.) left-hander Cam Caminiti, York HS (Elmhurst, Ill.) righty Ryan Sloan and Elk City (Okla.) HS southpaw Kash Mayfield are three more prep arms who could factor into the first round.
Teams prefer to pay prep pitchers over-slot bonuses with later picks to taking them in the first round, so Schmidt, Caminiti, Sloan and Mayfield are more likely to go lower than where their talent dictates. And this year's high school class is one of the weakest in recent memory, so we probably won't see many prepsters pushed up boards.
Westlake HS (Austin, Texas) infielder Theo Gillen is acclaimed as the best high school hitter, so maybe he moves up into the middle of the first round. Perhaps athletic Millard West HS (Omaha, Neb.) shortstop Tyson Lewis climbs into the supplemental first round. Oxford (Ala.) HS shortstop Carter Johnson and Freedom HS (South Riding, Va.) outfielder Griffin Burkholder could go earlier than their consensus projections, which have Johnson as a second-rounder and Burkholder as a third-rounder.
This is the complete list of college first basemen drafted in the top 20 picks in the last 20 years: Matt LaPorta (seventh) in 2005; Yonder Alonso (seventh), Justin Smoak (11th), Brett Wallace (13th), David Cooper (17th) and Ike Davis (18th) in 2008; C.J. Cron (17th) in 2011; Casey Gillaspie (20th) in 2014; Pavin Smith (seventh) and Evan White (17th) in 2017; Andrew Vaughn (third) in 2019; Spencer Torkelson (first) in 2020; and Nolan Schanuel (11th) in 2023. Wallace and Torkelson technically were drafted as third basemen, but we all knew they were destined for first base. What's the difference between Jac Caglianone and Nick Kurtz and the rest of this list that they'd be worth a top-10 pick?
-- Tim H., Salt Lake City
That's 13 first basemen and not much return on investment. Cron has produced the highest bWAR (12.4) and OPS (.791) among the group and he, Alonso and Smoak are the only ones to make an All-Star Game (one each). The two highest picks are Torkelson, whom the industry regarded as the best college offensive prospect in years, and Vaughn, who was in the same conversation. Neither has come close to meeting expectations yet.
Based on their prospect status at the time, Torkelson would rank first, followed by the lefty-hitting Caglianone and Kurtz over the righty-swinging Vaughn. While the recent track record of taking first basemen in the Draft is frightening, you have to evaluate each class on its own merits.
Caglianone and Kurtz are two of the five best talents in 2024 and should be drafted accordingly. Caglianone's raw power is impressive, especially combined with his eight percent strikeout rate, even if he does chase more pitches than is desired. Kurtz's combination of pop and patience is pretty rare.
Klassen had the quickest arm in the 2024 Draft, producing fastballs that averaged 98 mph and regularly reached triple digits while also flashing plus breaking stuff. But he also had hit-the-bull control and enjoyed little success in college at Minnesota, where he missed his first season following Tommy John surgery and posted a 6.72 ERA with 61 walks in 54 1/3 innings over the next two. That's why he lasted until the Phillies selected him in the sixth round last July.
Klassen has looked like a different guy this spring. He's not throwing across his body as much and he has been much more consistent, pounding the strike zone with his fastball and curveball and getting chases with his slider without losing any power. He recorded a 0.36 ERA in his first five Single-A starts, holding opponents to a .119 average with a 39/8 K/BB ratio in 25 innings.
Klassen has legitimate frontline starter stuff provided he can harness it. He left his last start a week ago with a right shoulder issue, though the Phillies don't believe it's serious.