Pipeline Inbox: Where does Durbin fit in Yankees' plans? Where will Roki Sasaki rank?

November 8th, 2024

We¡¯re thisclose to one of the most fun days for prospect fans: The Arizona Fall League Fall Stars Game. That comes your way on Saturday at 8 p.m. ET and can be watched live on MLB Network and here on MLB.com. And don¡¯t forget to check out the livestream of the AFL Home Run Derby on Friday at 8:30 p.m. ET. While we¡¯re waiting for the excitement to begin, let¡¯s answer some of your questions.

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What AFL prospect not on a Top 30 has the best chance to have a big league impact in 2025? -- Carter P., Scottsdale, Ariz.

The first guy who comes to mind is Yankees utility-type . He¡¯s just one stolen base away from tying the all-time single-season Fall League stolen base record (24) and sports a .935 OPS. Perhaps I shouldn¡¯t call him a utilityman just yet, as GM Brian Cashman recently mentioned him as a potential internal candidate to play second base in New York in 2025. The keystone is where he has played the most in his professional career, so that would be the one spot he could potentially land should he develop into a regular.

I think it¡¯s more likely Durbin moves around the diamond some, at least at the outset. He¡¯s seen time at three infield spots and two outfield positions this fall, so he could work his way into a lineup fairly consistently thanks to his defensive versatility. As a college player drafted in 2021, he¡¯ll have to be added to the 40-man roster, but after a solid showing at Triple-A in 2024 (10 homers and 29 steals in 82 games with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre) and his Fall League performance, that¡¯s all but a certainty.

I¡¯ll mention one arm that might be a little more of a long shot, but mostly because I¡¯m fascinated by him. Reds reliever made it to Double-A this past year, but he really struggled with his command. He also needs to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft -- and he will be, as he¡¯s yet to allow a hit in 7 2/3 innings of relief work while only walking two for Glendale this fall. If the strike-throwing gains are real, he has a chance to be a high-leverage reliever in time and he could help Cincinnati next season.

If was considered a prospect, where would you rank him on the Top 100 Prospects list? -- @StevieDAles97

We answered this question on the MLB Pipeline Podcast, both this week and with a similar question back in 2022. Suffice it to say there¡¯s been a lot of interest in the Japanese fireballer for some time. But it¡¯s a lot more relevant now because the 23-year-old right-hander could potentially come to the United States this offseason. If he comes for the 2025 season, he would still be considered a prospect -- just like Shohei Ohtani when he came in advance of the 2018 season. Yoshinobu Yamamoto was 25 when he arrived, so he was not eligible for prospect lists. (We follow the rules that dictate the international bonus system to determine prospect status. This is worth noting because, like Ohtani, Sasaki¡¯s bonus will be limited to a team¡¯s bonus pool. He won¡¯t be able to sign a long deal like Yamamoto¡¯s until after he¡¯s played here for a year.)

So if Sasaki does come now, he¡¯ll be a prospect -- albeit briefly. And as Jim Callis and I discussed on the podcast, his combination of stuff -- he¡¯s routinely been north of 100 mph with his fastball to go along with an unhittable splitter and excellent slider -- and his ability to throw it all in the zone would make him the No. 1 prospect on our Top 100. This is not at all a knock on the hitters currently at the top of the list -- Dylan Crews (Nationals), Walker Jenkins (Twins) and Roman Anthony (Red Sox) are the top 3 -- it¡¯s just how good Sasaki appears to be. That could give us two pitchers in the top five and maybe even three, since Andrew Painter (PHI No. 2/MLB No. 32) will almost certainly move up toward the top of that list in January.

Question on . How is he at this point at catching? Is there actually a future there as an above-average catcher or is his future moving to another position? -- @DCWilcox

Ford, the No. 4 prospect on the Mariners' Top 30 list and No. 49 overall, has a lot of tools to work with. His offensive traits and his athleticism may stand out more now than his work behind the plate, but there¡¯s still a lot of confidence he¡¯ll be just fine there. He¡¯s still a work in progress defensively, but there¡¯s no reason to think that his combination of youth, makeup and that athleticism won't allow him to make it work.

Is Ford a sure-thing above-average defender? No. But if he¡¯s an average backstop who can do all the things it looks like he¡¯ll be able to do at the plate? That¡¯s more than enough, especially given what the defensive bar for catching in the big leagues is these days. As of right now, there are no conversations about moving him to another position, and I know he has the biggest thing needed for the grueling position: the ¡°want to.¡± The only way I think it comes up at all is if the bat becomes "slam-dunk ready," the catching is behind and he¡¯s blocked behind the plate by Cal Raleigh.

has continued to impress at each level so far. I understand that young players are so volatile and unpredictable, so what will he have to do to crack the top 100 in 2025? -- @Blahbla92342524

Calaz, who signed with the Rockies for $1.7 million in January 2023, sure has put his best foot forward since signing. In 105 games as a professional, the outfielder has a 1.040 OPS. He runs well to boot and has the chance to stick in center field. He¡¯s just scratching the surface tapping into his raw power, and he¡¯s shown a little more feel for the barrel than some anticipated. All that said, he did it in the Dominican Summer League in 2023 -- where all hitting stats need to be taken with a grain of salt -- then in the Rookie-level Arizona Complex League and on up to the Single-A California League this year. He¡¯s continued to hit everywhere, as you pointed out, and that¡¯s a good sign. I think I¡¯d want to make sure he keeps the swing-and-miss in check (a 23.2 career strikeout percentage) and he keeps producing like this over an entire year in full-season ball. He¡¯ll be just 19 for the 2025 season, so another strong year -- maybe with a promotion to High-A -- and I think he¡¯ll enter the conversation.

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