If you'd been told at the start of last season that Cal Raleigh would be the most valuable player in the American League West, you'd have been surprised. But it was the Mariners catcher, not Yordan Alvarez or Corey Seager or Mike Trout or Julio Rodr¨ªguez, who led the division in Wins Above Replacement in 2024.

This isn't to argue that Raleigh is a better player than any of them -- it's just to point out that this sort of thing happens in baseball all the time.

The year before that, it was William Contreras breaking out to lead the NL Central in WAR, over players like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado and Christian Yelich and Corbin Burnes.

So who will be the next player to become the unexpected superstar of his division? Let's try to pick out some players who have a chance to do it this season, despite never having reached that level before.

Here's one dark horse candidate to emerge as the top player in each division in 2025.

AL East -- Jackson Holliday, Orioles

This is a big bet on Holliday's potential. But if anyone can go from "batting below the Mendoza Line" to "star of the division," it's a sweet-swinging 21-year-old with All-Star DNA who was the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball a year ago and the No. 1 overall Draft pick before that.

Holliday will have to make a huge leap to ascend to superstar status this season. But some of MLB's biggest stars have famously done exactly what he's trying to do. Trout hit .220 when he debuted, before exploding with 30 homers and 49 steals the next season. Aaron Judge hit .179 and struck out in half of his at-bats; he crushed 52 homers the next year. Both won the AL Rookie of the Year Award (though Holliday exhausted his rookie eligibility last season).

There aren't a lot of Mike Trouts and Aaron Judges in the world. (And if Judge is chasing 60 homers again in 2025, it'll be hard for any division rival to match him.) But Holliday is a blue-chip young talent. Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg have all blossomed with the O's. Holliday's next.

Honorable mention: Garrett Crochet (Red Sox), Junior Caminero (Rays), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Yankees)

AL Central -- Luis Robert Jr., White Sox

To dethrone Bobby Witt Jr. as the top player in the AL Central, you need to find someone else who can be an elite power-speed-defense triple threat. Robert can be that player.

The 27-year-old center fielder fell off the map in 2024 as he scuffled his way to a .657 OPS for the Major Leagues' worst team, the 41-121 White Sox. But he's just a year removed from a 38-homer, 20-steal season with +13 Outs Above Average in center field, where he was one of the stars of the Central. Robert's never been the best player in the division, but he's been close.

That means there's a path for him to get to the top. Say Robert bounces back with a 30-30 season and Gold Glove-caliber defense at a premium position in 2025. That would put him in Witt's category. Robert might be a boom-or-bust player, but if he booms, it will be a big boom.

Honorable mention: Riley Greene (Tigers), Royce Lewis (Twins), Steven Kwan (Guardians)

AL West -- Wyatt Langford, Rangers

Langford Mania began in Texas last spring when the then-22-year-old slugged his way onto the Rangers' Opening Day roster less than a year after being drafted and looked like he'd be an instant star. And although Langford actually took some time to take off in the bigs, by the end of the year he was raking -- and that final month of 2024 shows what he could do all of 2025.

Langford batted .300 with eight home runs, seven stolen bases and a .996 OPS in September, which pushed him to a 16-homer, 19-steal rookie season. He should easily reach the 20-20 club this season, and assuming the September version of Langford is the real Langford, we could definitely be looking at a 30-30 player.

Langford's got great bat speed (74.5 mph, ranking in the 84th percentile of MLB), he's got strong plate discipline (better-than-average chase rate, swing-and-miss rate and strikeout rate), and he's got elite speed (29.8 ft/sec sprint speed, a top-10 mark in the Major Leagues). In a loaded Rangers lineup, he could be the breakout slugger this year.

Honorable mention: George Kirby (Mariners), Isaac Paredes (Astros), Lawrence Butler (A's)

NL East -- James Wood, Nationals

Wood is built in the mold of Elly De La Cruz, and he could be the next electric power-speed star. The 22-year-old finished with nine home runs, 14 stolen bases and a 122 OPS+ in just under a half-season with the Nats' big league club, and Wood was just scratching the surface.

Wood has all the tools, and he showed them after debuting in 2024 as one of MLB's top prospects. The 6-foot-7 lefty slugger's 92.8 mph average exit velocity and 52% hard-hit rate both ranked in the top 5% of MLB hitters who had as many batted balls as he had. And Wood's 28.7 ft/sec average sprint speed ranked in the 85th percentile of MLB runners.

The key for Wood in 2025 is probably being a little more aggressive at the plate -- he's got a fast bat and big power, but he had one of the lowest swing rates in baseball as a rookie. If he lets it rip this season, he'll mash a bunch of homers, and he'll get the hits he needs to make a difference with his speed on the bases, too.

Honorable mention: Mark Vientos (Mets), Spencer Schwellenbach (Braves), Alec Bohm (Phillies)

NL Central -- Oneil Cruz, Pirates

Speaking of players built in the mold of Elly De La Cruz ¡­ Oneil Cruz was built like De La Cruz before there was a De La Cruz. The Pirates shortstop-turned-center fielder debuted first, and he's also a huge (6-foot-7) power-speed style player, but he hasn't yet broken out to the level De La Cruz did last year. Last season was Cruz's best yet (146 games played, 21 home runs, 22 stolen bases), and he's just entering his age-26 season in 2025.

Cruz hits the ball as hard as anybody in the world (his 95.5 mph average exit velocity, 121.5 mph max exit velocity, 54.9% hard-hit rate and 15.7% barrel rate in 2024 all ranked in the 97th percentile of MLB or better). He's one of the faster players in the Majors (his 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed ranked in the 88th percentile). And his move to center field late last season helped him defensively: He went from -3 Outs Above Average at shortstop to +2 Outs Above Average in center. He feels like he's on the verge of putting it all together and becoming a star.

Honorable mention: Jackson Chourio (Brewers), Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs), Lars Nootbaar (Cardinals)

NL West -- Patrick Bailey, Giants

The easy pick here would have been Padres sensation Jackson Merrill after his awesome rookie year. But with the last two surprise division WAR leaders being catchers, we're going to get one on the list.

There are two candidates in the West -- Bailey and Gabriel Moreno of the D-backs, who are both excellent defensive catchers and would be immensely valuable players if their bats caught up to their mitts. We'll go with Bailey as the pick here because while Moreno is good behind the plate, Bailey has been in a league of his own.

The 25-year-old was the most valuable fielder in baseball in 2024, according to Statcast, with a +22 Fielding Run Value. That means if he starts hitting, he'll just be one of the most valuable players in baseball, period. And Bailey has shown flashes at the plate. He hits the ball hard, he hits a lot of line drives, and he doesn't chase a ton of bad pitches. He also had a really good offensive first half last season (122 OPS+) but slumped terribly in the second half. If he can avoid that type of slump in 2025 -- and yes, that's a big "if" -- Bailey will be a great player.

Honorable mention: Jackson Merrill (Padres), Gabriel Moreno (D-backs), Roki Sasaki (Dodgers)