Who will get qualifying offer, and will they accept? Here's a rundown
Mike Petriello
@mike_petrielloWith the World Series in the books, it¡¯s time to move on to offseason business, which is to say: The baseball season never really ends. It just takes on a different form for a few months until pitchers and catchers report in February.
One of the first decisions teams will need to make is whether to extend a qualifying offer to eligible free agents or not, and that¡¯s a choice that has to be made quickly. Teams have five days after the completion of the World Series to make an offer -- the deadline is 5 p.m. ET on Monday -- and then players who receive one have to accept or decline it by 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 14.
The logistics of all this are a little complicated ¨C read all about it here ¨C but the essentials are that the offer is a one-year contract for a designated amount, which this year is $20.325 million. If a player who received an offer chooses to decline it, his previous team receives Draft pick compensation.
That, in some cases, can be a big deal. Current players who were drafted with exactly such a pick include Shane McClanahan, Will Smith (the Dodgers catcher), Cole Ragans, Dylan Carlson, Ryan Mountcastle, Ke¡¯Bryan Hayes, and even Aaron Judge, drafted by the Yankees with the pick they got for losing Nick Swisher to Cleveland.
The other important rule to keep in mind is that in order to be eligible, players must:
A) have not received a qualifying offer previously, which excludes free agents like Brandon Belt, Joc Pederson, Craig Kimbrel and Zack Greinke, and
B) have been with the same team all season, which excludes traded players like Lucas Giolito, Jeimer Candelario, Tommy Pham and Jordan Montgomery.
We¡¯re also assuming that players with team options like Charlie Morton will have their statuses decided via those existing options, not via the qualifying offer. And finally, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s contract prevents him from receiving one from Arizona.
All of which makes for some strategy and gamesmanship here, because teams want to collect as much Draft pick compensation as they can ¨C but at the same time, most free agents won¡¯t come near a $20.325 million annual salary, so clubs have to be choosy about where they extend the offer.
So let¡¯s take a look at this year¡¯s crop, trying to predict who will receive one and who will accept one. Of the 124 qualifying offers ever extended, only 13 have been accepted, or about 10 percent, making that relatively rare, although we did see two last year in Pederson and Mart¨ªn P¨¦rez.
Definitely receiving (and declining) the offer
- CF/1B Cody Bellinger, Cubs
- 3B Matt Chapman, Blue Jays
- RHP Sonny Gray, Twins
- LHP Josh Hader, Padres
- RHP Aaron Nola, Phillies
- RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani, Angels
- LHP Blake Snell, Padres
The cream of this year¡¯s free agency crop, these players will all receive well-deserved multi-year contracts worth many, many millions of dollars. It¡¯s not even worth the time to break all seven down individually. Of course the team will extend an offer. Of course the player will not accept a one-year deal. So, of course the team will secure itself a Draft pick.
It¡¯s not that they¡¯re all risk-free ¨C Ohtani is injured; Chapman¡¯s second half was dreadful; Bellinger¡¯s underlying stats didn¡¯t quite match his output, and on and on. But they¡¯re each among the best players in the game, and each of their current teams would be absolutely thrilled to have them back for a mere $20.325 million over one year. Which, of course, is why none of them would consider accepting such an offer.
Prediction: All seven receive the offer // all seven decline the offer.
The Kershaw zone
- LHP Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Last winter, the Dodgers somewhat surprisingly chose not to extend a qualifying offer to Kershaw. Shortly afterward, the reasoning became clear.
¡°I think just with our respect for him and for what he¡¯s done for this organization,¡± said president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, ¡°that wasn¡¯t something that we wanted to do and put him on that kind of clock when he wasn¡¯t ready for it.¡±
The two sides later agreed to a one-year deal for 2023. It seemed likely the same situation would play out again this winter, but now that we have learned he's undergone shoulder surgery, it's far from clear he'll ever get back on the mound. The Dodgers will be there for him if and when that happens, but it won't be via qualifying offer.
Prediction: Does not receive an offer.
Could go either way
- OF Teoscar Hern¨¢ndez, Mariners
- 1B Rhys Hoskins, Phillies
- DH J.D. Martinez, Dodgers
- OF/DH Jorge Soler, Marlins
Hernandez's first year in Seattle was a very up-and-down affair that ended with good-not-great numbers of a 106 OPS+ and 26 homers, more akin to his 2019 than his very strong 2020-22 run. The Mariners have identified making more contact (they had the second-most strikeouts in baseball) as a priority, and Hernandez whiffed 211 times. This one could go either way, though the Mariners may also be looking to focus all their dollars on an Ohtani chase. It¡¯s tricky, because Seattle may not want to extend the offer, but Hernandez might not take it anyway. Ultimately, given his relatively average season, we think they¡¯ll find other ways to make contact and add power.
Prediction: Does not receive an offer.
Hoskins missed all of the 2023 season due to a knee injury, and the $20.325 million figure would represent a huge raise, so he would almost certainly accept it. The question is more on the team's side, as the Phillies don¡¯t actually know right now ¨C or, at least, have not publicly stated ¨C if they even need a first baseman, or if Bryce Harper¡¯s in-season move is now his long-term home. Hoskins¡¯ return would undo some of the late-season defensive improvement they enjoyed, and while that¡¯s not a total roadblock to the popular slugger coming back, given his injury, the Phillies could probably figure out a way to do it for a lot less annually than $20.325 million.
Prediction: Does not receive an offer.
Martinez, based purely on performance, is someone the Dodgers would normally want to retain on a short-term basis. After signing a one-year, $10 million contract last winter, Martinez made his fifth consecutive All-Star team by delivering 33 homers and a 134 OPS+. The Dodgers would surely prefer not to go multiple years with the 36-year-old Martinez, and he? would likely jump at seeing his salary doubled. The problem here is that Martinez is exclusively a DH at this point, and the Dodgers are viewed as extremely likely to be in on Ohtani, who is also exclusively a DH in 2024. It¡¯s possible the Dodgers could retain Martinez, then flip him if they land Ohtani, but that all sounds entirely too complicated.
Prediction: Does not receive an offer.
Soler rebounded from a poor first season in Miami (95 OPS+ and 13 homers) with a far more impressive follow-up (128 OPS+ and 36 homers), and he declined the $9 million player option he had for 2024 to test the open market again. Miami¡¯s offense was already short on pop even with Soler, so it seems difficult to think the club would pass up the chance to retain him, particularly with holes to fill at catcher and shortstop.
On the other hand, the Marlins have never extended a qualifying offer, and on yet another hand, it¡¯s not entirely clear who is even running the show in the wake of Kim Ng¡¯s surprising departure. It¡¯s close, but we¡¯ll bet one of the weakest offenses in the game won¡¯t let a power bat walk for nothing.
Prediction: Receives the offer // does not accept the offer.
Anyone else?
We won¡¯t list out every possible free agent here ¨C you can view the full list if you like ¨C because there are just so many backups or middle relievers who won¡¯t even be considered for a $20.325 million annual salary. Still, there are a few remaining free agents who are eligible and should at least briefly be noted. For the most part, this group consists of desirable players, but those who won¡¯t come close to getting that much per year.
Hitters in this group include (but are not limited to) C Mitch Garver, OF/DH Michael Brantley, INF Elvis Andrus, OF Adam Duvall, OF Kevin Kiermaier, OF Michael A. Taylor, UT Whit Merrifield and UT Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Pitchers are along the lines of Kyle Gibson, Kyle Hendricks, Seth Lugo, Kenta Maeda, Hector Neris and Michael Wacha. Good players, all, but not ones teams will extend the offer to.
Prediction: No one in this group receives the offer.
Which means...
Eight players will receive the offer. All eight of them will decline it. It will be the first time since the winter of 2017-18 that not a single offer will be accepted.