FORT MYERS, Fla. -- It was a quiet winter for the Twins, then it was mostly a quiet camp. Then the injury bug hit Minnesota down the stretch, with Royce Lewis (left hamstring strain) lost for at least Opening Day and Brooks Lee (lower back tightness) beginning the season on the IL. That certainly put a bit of a damper on what¡¯s mostly been an upbeat spring, but it shouldn¡¯t diminish optimism for the season too drastically.
That¡¯s because the central reasons to believe in the 2025 Twins haven¡¯t really changed that much. The rotation is strong and deep. The bullpen should be one of the best in baseball. And even if Lewis is down for a bit, the core of the lineup should produce at a solid level.
There are questions, of course. It¡¯s unclear how good a defensive team this will be. It¡¯s always uncertain how healthy that lineup core will be. Two-fifths of the rotation are coming back from significant injuries. And there was very little roster turnover after last season¡¯s extremely disappointing late-season slump.
But as Opening Day approaches, there¡¯s a belief within the Twins that this should be a postseason team, and that¡¯s very much the goal.
What needs to go right?
It¡¯s the Twins, so the answer is health. The rotation dealt with extensive injuries last year, but there appears to be better depth this year to withstand a similar run if it happens.
The real questions are always in the lineup. Lewis is already out for a spell. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have had healthy springs, which is a good start. If they could both combine for 250 games, it would be absolutely huge -- but they¡¯ve never done that together with the Twins. The more the core hitters play, the more games this team wins.
Great unknown
It¡¯s the close cousin of health: depth. The Twins feel very good about their sixth, seventh and eighth starting pitchers, but David Festa and Zebby Matthews had growing pains in the Majors last year and Andrew Morris has never pitched in the bigs. Harrison Bader is the backup plan for Buxton, but if Bader has to fill in, then there are real questions about outfield depth behind him, especially from the right side. And there¡¯s no clear plan B behind Correa, particularly for however long Lewis is out.
Team MVP will be:
It¡¯s hard not to pick Correa, who was outstanding when he was able to play last year and has one of the best combo offensive-defensive skill sets in the sport. Any optimistic projection for the Twins includes a healthy, productive season from Correa, and spring is the time for optimism. Don¡¯t count out Matt Wallner, though. He seems to have taken to the leadoff spot, and on a rate basis has been one of the best hitters in baseball with a 143 OPS+ over the past two years.
Team Cy Young will be:
You could choose any of three starters, and maybe even one or two names from the bullpen, and not look ridiculous. Bailey Ober is a breakout pick in some circles. Joe Ryan may have the most upside of the Twins¡¯ starters. But betting on blue chips is rarely a bad strategy, and so the safe pick would be the durable, reliable, effective Pablo L¨®pez. Making his third straight Opening Day start, L¨®pez was outstanding in the second half last year after a bit of a slow start and could be poised for a big year.
Bold prediction
Few players hit the ball harder more consistently than Wallner. Yes, he strikes out a lot, but he gets on base, and the power is undeniable. So on one hand, predicting him to go north of 30 homers doesn¡¯t feel all that bold. But no Twin has reached that number since 2021, when Jorge Polanco hit 33 and Miguel San¨® had 30. Still, we¡¯re looking for bold here, so let¡¯s go a step farther and say Wallner hits 35, the highest number for a Twin since ¡®19, and picks up some down-ballot MVP consideration.