You may not think about defense as being quite as important as a blazing fastball or a massive homer, but that doesn¡¯t mean there¡¯s not considerable value in it. After all, last year, five of the top eight fielding teams made the playoffs ¨C and all of the eight weakest fielding teams missed the playoffs. You saw how Game 5 of the World Series turned on poor defense, didn¡¯t you?
With that in mind, let¡¯s look ahead to 2025 from a fielding perspective, taking into account the changing rosters since the end of last season, and ask ourselves these very important questions: Which teams are projected to have the best defenses? Which ones made the largest steps forward? Why are two 2024 playoff teams coming out as having taken a step back, defensively?
They¡¯re important questions, though ones without easy answers. So how did we do this? We took two of the better-known projection systems -- ZIPS and The Bat X -- and then we removed any projected DH time from each team¡¯s defensive projections. That is, it might matter for Seiya Suzuki¡¯s overall value that he¡¯s projected to be Chicago¡¯s DH 85% of the time, but for these purposes, we care only about the 15% of the projected Cubs outfield time that he¡¯s expected to get as he shifts to DH.
Next, we averaged the two defensive systems scaled to the projected playing time FanGraphs gives each player to get projected defense, value-adjusted by position. The end result is expressed in runs, with 0 being ¡°average,¡± and you can see that last year, the Blue Jays had the best defense (+41 runs), and the White Sox the weakest (-59). By this method, we ended up with things like Dansby Swanson being projected for +14 runs in 2025, and Marcus Semien +7, and Alec Bohm 0 (or average), and Luis Arraez minus-7, and so on.
Put it all together, and we get team projections. If we just look at teams with playoff odds of at least 20% (via FanGraphs) as ¡°contenders,¡± then which ones most improved their defensive projections from what they did in 2024?
The answer: The Red Sox, Giants, and Cubs. Let's explain why -- and then tell you which two contenders might be shockingly weaker with the glove.
Red Sox (Projected improvement: 22 runs)
Boston was ranked 25th in defense last year, and that probably won¡¯t conflict with anyone¡¯s eye test ¨C nor will the fact that the problem was very much centered on the infield dirt, not the outfield grass. While Boston¡¯s outfielders were tied for third best defensively, the infield was second weakest -- and the catchers were dead last, thanks to very weak framing. It wasn¡¯t just one infield spot, either; all four spots were troublesome. Again: The metrics and the gut feeling were all very much in agreement here.
The defensive issues behind the plate remain, but the infield looks to be considerably different. First of all, focus on shortstop, where Ceddanne Rafaela (a poor -5 at that position) is expected to focus mostly on the outfield, where he was excellent (+6), so long as Trevor Story can remain healthy. That¡¯s a big ¡°if,¡± of course, but Story¡¯s glove remains strong, both in the recent past and in 2025 projections.
Second, look at who is no longer here. Part-time infielders with negative fielding value like Enmanuel Valdez, Dominic Smith and Pablo Reyes have moved on, while David Hamilton -- like Rafaela a poor shortstop who was strong elsewhere (second base) -- is expected to get considerably less shortstop time. A lot depends on Story¡¯s health here.
That was all true weeks ago. But of course now, there¡¯s an even bigger change, which is the dawn-of-camp arrival of Alex Bregman. It¡¯s still slightly up in the air whether he plays second or third, yet for the moment, he¡¯s expected to play second base. It¡¯s hard to know exactly how that will go for him; on the other hand, last year¡¯s Red Sox second basemen were the second-weakest defensively in the game, and he¡¯s all but certain to be a step up on that.
Given that Rafael Devers at third and Triston Casas at first make for weak defenders at the corners, if the time comes that Bregman goes to third and Devers moves to first and/or DH, there¡¯s still yet even more room for improvement here. It should be a very different Boston infield defense, though so much of it does rely on Story staying whole.
Giants (Projected improvement: 18 runs)
This is a satisfying placement, because the team's new front office leadership of Buster Posey and Zack Minasian have been openly talking about improving the team¡¯s pitching and defense all winter. Of course, it should also be noted that they inherited catcher Patrick Bailey, who just might be the single most dominant defender at any position in the sport right now. Still, adding a projected 18 runs of value around Bailey is no small thing.
So where does that come from? You¡¯re thinking of the addition of Willy Adames, but it¡¯s not just that. Last year¡¯s club had the weakest center field defense of any team in baseball, by a lot, and that¡¯s due to the scramble that came after Jung Hoo Lee was lost for the season in early May. Heliot Ramos, Grant McCray and other fill-ins were generally overmatched there, and assuming that the now-healthy Lee can be even average, it¡¯s a huge gain -- to say nothing of what might happen if he¡¯s above average.
But of course, the flashiest move here is the seven-year, $182 million deal to entice Adames to move from Milwaukee, and he should be a nice improvement defensively. We say ¡°should¡± because in 2022-¡¯23, he was one of the truly elite defensive shortstops in the game, and he¡¯s projected to be outstanding (+8 runs) in 2025, too. So what¡¯s the problem? Last year, Adames took a notable and unexplained step back, by every reputable defensive metric, playing below-average defense for a shortstop. Is that a one-year blip? Or the start of a bad trend? We just don¡¯t know yet, and the answer is going to define just how improved the 2025 San Francisco defense might be.
Cubs (Projected improvement: 16 runs)
Chicago already had a top-10 defense last year, and it was even better as the season went on; the Cubs were the best in September, for example. And despite that, we¡¯re seeing a projected improvement ¨C and it¡¯s not hard to explain, either.
Step one is easy: Take a truly elite defender and give him more playing time. That's what they¡¯re planning to do in center field with Pete Crow-Armstrong, one of the best defenders in the entire sport, and by one measure the best speed-and-defense guy in the game. He¡¯s expected to play every day in center field in 2025 with Cody Bellinger now a Yankee.
Step two is easy to explain, too: Take below-average defenders and remove them from the field or the roster. That¡¯s what happened with Christopher Morel, who proved unable to handle third and was traded to Tampa Bay last summer; it¡¯s what will happen now with Suzuki, who is expected to be the team¡¯s primary designated hitter in 2025. Former Cubs Patrick Wisdom and Mike Tauchman both had negative defensive value and have moved on; even Bellinger, despite his reputation, rated as only average last year.
The Cubs were already good last year, defensively. They could be really good this year, and they¡¯re projected as 2025¡¯s best team defense.
So what about the contenders that are projected to take a defensive step back? We¡¯re not talking about teams like Toronto and Milwaukee, who were strong last year and are still projected to be ¨C if slightly less so. We¡¯re talking about teams that had plus defenses last year, and by the projections now show up as having negative defenses.
These two AL playoff teams from 2024 might be taking big steps back with the glove.
Yankees
You¡¯re stunned, because you saw Game 5, and you think Soto leaving solves all the defensive problems. Not ¡ quite.
Here¡¯s what the numbers say: While Austin Wells had a breakout catching season, he¡¯s no longer paired with longtime elite backstop Jose Trevino, who was traded to the Reds. (Yes, despite the fact that he¡¯s weak at throwing out runners, which isn¡¯t close to the most important thing a catcher does.) While 34-year-old Anthony Rizzo didn¡¯t offer much at first base (-5 runs), 37-year-old Paul Goldschmidt wasn¡¯t actually any better ¨C no matter what each of their sterling reputations and long-ago Gold Gloves say.
Bellinger is similar, in that his reputation somewhat exceeds what the metrics said and are projecting, which is roughly average performance. Will Jasson Dom¨ªnguez (who didn¡¯t impress in a small sample in 2024) match Alex Verdugo (roughly average) in left field? And, of course, who even is playing third base?
There is good news, obviously. Shortstop Anthony Volpe was excellent on defense, and is expected to be so again, as is Wells. Jazz Chisholm Jr., no matter where he plays, should add a full season of solid fielding. Juan Soto wasn¡¯t a good defender (though hardly as poor as this winter¡¯s discourse would have you believe), and now he¡¯s gone. The same goes for Gleyber Torres. Moving Aaron Judge back to right field is a long-overdue move. You should like this year¡¯s outfield better than last year¡¯s. There¡¯s just a ton of uncertainty with the gloves in New York.
Royals
This boils down to three reasons, really. The first two are easy to swallow. You¡¯ll have questions about the third.
The first is easy to understand, which is that the team bid farewell to some 2024 Royals who added defensive value (Paul DeJong and Garrett Hampson, mostly, though Tommy Pham also fielded well in his brief time there) while adding 2025 players who are useful in other ways, yet don¡¯t rate well with the glove (Jonathan India, mostly). Those types of transactions are responsible for about 16 runs of projected defensive decline. That makes sense.
The second reason will be less popular, but it makes sense, too. Despite the early-career Gold Gloves, Salvador Perez had long been viewed as a poor defensive catcher by advanced metrics due to his inability to add value via framing; from 2021-¡¯23, Kansas City catchers came in as the weakest defenders in the game. But in 2024, that jumped to eighth best, in part because Perez successfully focused on improving his framing, yet also because Vinnie Pasquantino¡¯s injury had Perez playing more first base (which he was good at) and allowing Freddy Fermin to catch more often (which he was also good at). With Pasquantino healthy, Perez may take more of the time behind the plate, and projection systems are understandably skeptical of a nearly-35-year-old catcher¡¯s unexpected defense. We can buy that.
The third reason? Bobby Witt Jr. went from poor defensively as a rookie in 2022, then improved in 2023, and won a Gold Glove in 2024. He¡¯s projected to still be strong in 2025 (+9 runs), yet not quite as elite as he was in 2024 (+18 runs). That¡¯s because projection systems don¡¯t work off of just ¡°last year,¡± and they remember the previous years, too. We¡¯ll take the over on Witt, who should again be defensively elite, though the concerns about the rest of the defense can¡¯t be written off.