Soto has sights set on Cooperstown -- and the numbers say he'll get there
¡°Now the goal is to reach the Hall of Fame,¡± Juan Soto said in an interview during a recent Tigres del Licey LIDOM game. The Mets¡¯ new superstar is humble, but the stats don¡¯t lie -- Soto is already on a Hall of Fame-caliber path.
Consider this: Soto has a 160 career OPS+. The only players with higher marks through their age-25 seasons, minimum 3,000 plate appearances, are Ty Cobb (180), Mickey Mantle (174), Mike Trout (172), Jimmie Foxx (171), Albert Pujols (167), Tris Speaker (166) and Rogers Hornsby (165). All seven are either already in the Hall of Fame or will be once they are eligible, which means Soto is on the right track.
Of course, Cooperstown is still many years down the line. But the 2025 season is right around the corner, and projected stats give us a chance to see what Soto¡¯s first year in Flushing might look like.
Let¡¯s start with the basics. Soto is projected to hit .282/.421/.538 with a 169 wRC+, 36 homers and 130 walks this season, per FanGraphs¡¯ Depth Charts. Those numbers speak for themselves, but they¡¯re even better with context. Here¡¯s what Soto¡¯s projections mean for ¡®25 and beyond.
Rate stats: OBP, wRC+, walk rate
Soto¡¯s projected .421 on-base percentage would lead MLB, ahead of Aaron Judge¡¯s .399. No Mets player has ever led the Majors in OBP. The best finish is second, by John Olerud in 1998 (.447), behind Mark McGwire (.470). The only other Mets to finish in the top three are Dave Magadan in 1990 and Keith Hernandez in 1986.
This will be the eighth season of Soto¡¯s career, each with at least a .400 on-base percentage. The only AL/NL players to have at least a .400 OBP in each of their first eight or more seasons are Ted Williams (first 17), Frank Thomas and Wade Boggs. As it stands, Soto¡¯s streak of seven straight such seasons to start his career is tied for fourth, with Ferris Fain, who debuted in 1947, and Roy Thomas, who debuted in 1899.
Unsurprisingly, Soto is also projected to lead in walk rate, at 18.9%. The only Met to be in the top five among qualified players in a season in walk rate is Hernandez, who was third in 1984. Soto enters ¡®25 with five qualified seasons with at least an 18% walk rate. The only players with more are Babe Ruth (12 seasons), Williams (11), Barry Bonds (11), Max Bishop (seven), Mantle (six) and Eddie Yost (six). And Soto is just 26 years old.
Soto is projected to be third in MLB with a 169 wRC+, behind Yordan Alvarez (171) and Judge (170). Third would tie for the best finish by a qualified Mets player in a season with Olerud in 1998 and Darryl Strawberry in 1988.
Counting stats: home runs and walks
Soto is projected for 36 homers and 130 walks. This would be his fifth season with at least 25 homers and 125 walks. His four such seasons already are fourth-most in a career, behind only Bonds (10 seasons), Ruth (10) and Williams (eight). Soto¡¯s active streak of four consecutive seasons played with those totals is tied for second longest, with Bonds from 2001-04, behind Williams¡¯ six from 1941-42 and 1946-49 (military service 1943-45).
The 36 home runs would be the second-most in a season of Soto¡¯s career, trailing his 41 in 2024. No player has had a 35-homer season for each of the Mets and Yankees. Soto now has 15 chances to change that fact.
Soto has 201 career homers, tied with Pujols for sixth-most before turning 26. Another 36 would give him 237, good for eighth-most before the age of 27, behind Alex Rodriguez (273), Foxx (266), Eddie Mathews (253), Pujols (250), Mantle (249), Mel Ott (242) and Ken Griffey Jr. (238). And that¡¯s even with the shortened 2020 season.
Soto has 769 career walks, the second-most by a player before turning 27, behind Mantle¡¯s 797, and he¡¯s yet to even play a regular-season game as a 26-year-old. His projected 130 walks would set that record and then some. That would give him 899, which would already be the most before turning 28, too, ahead of Mantle¡¯s 892 -- before even turning 27 himself.
Beyond 2025
There¡¯s no question Soto is projected to be great again this season, adding to that Hall of Fame r¨¦sum¨¦. What about the more distant future? Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs was kind enough to pass along ZiPS projections for the next 16 seasons.
Prepare yourself. Through the 2040 season, Soto is projected for the following career totals:
151 OPS+
103.2 WAR
2,917 hits
583 HR
2,797 walks
1,826 RBI
He¡¯s projected to have at least a 140 OPS+ in each of the next 11 seasons. Add that to his first seven seasons, when he¡¯s already done so, and the 18 would be the most consecutive seasons with a 140 or higher OPS+ to start a career. Williams (17) is the only player to do this in his first 12 seasons or more. For now.
103.2 WAR, per FanGraphs, would be 19th all-time among batters, between Frank Robinson (104.0) and Nap Lajoie (102.2). 583 homers would tie Mark McGwire for 11th on the current list.
The 2,797 walks would be most all-time, ahead of Bonds¡¯ 2,258. How does he get to 2,797? With a whopping 12 straight 120-plus walk seasons, from 2025-36. The most seasons with at least 120 walks is 11, by Bonds, and Soto is already tied for fifth with four such seasons that have already happened.
There¡¯s still plenty of road ahead on this Hall of Fame path -- and it¡¯s going to be so much fun to watch.