Healthy Rays ready to make deeper run in 2023

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- For all the injuries and obstacles the Rays overcame last year, their fourth straight trip to the postseason ended with a whimper. Their lineup essentially disappeared once the playoffs began, managing just one run in 24 innings and wasting two games of excellent pitching as they were swept by the Guardians in the American League Wild Card Series.

That team had bigger plans for October. So does this year¡¯s group. The Rays are as motivated as ever to find a way back to the postseason -- and stick around a little longer this time.

¡°There was a frustrating moment last year, at the end of the year, when we lost,¡± manager Kevin Cash said. ¡°For by and large part, it's the same group, and they want to make right on that. And you can tell they've worked hard to come together as a group.¡±

Tampa Bay didn¡¯t make many splashy offseason moves, aside from the signing of starter Zach Eflin. But the Rays believe in their pitching and defense, expect more out of their lineup and should once again benefit from one of the game¡¯s deepest farm systems.

What needs to go right?
All together now: They need to stay healthy.

The Rays possess the talent and depth it takes to reach the postseason. Even with a smattering of major injuries the last few years, Tampa Bay has found ways to outlast other teams during the regular season through its depth and Cash¡¯s skillful use of the entire roster. But to take the next step, the Rays need their best players on the field as often as possible and playing up to their potential when the games matter most.

Great unknown
Jose Siri is 27 years old, but it¡¯s still not entirely clear what kind of player he will be. We should get a much better idea this season, as he¡¯s set to be the Rays¡¯ everyday center fielder.

Siri will make a huge impact on defense -- much like his predecessor Kevin Kiermaier -- after ranking among the game¡¯s best defensive outfielders last season despite playing only 104 games between the Astros and Rays. Cash has said Tampa Bay will win games because of Siri¡¯s speed on the bases. Can he contribute more at the plate to become a true all-around threat?

The Rays have a few non-injury unknowns -- how much Tyler Glasnow will pitch, whether Josh Lowe is the player he¡¯s been in Triple-A or the Majors, what Isaac Paredes¡¯ offensive ceiling looks like, etc. -- but Siri might be the most intriguing.

Team MVP will be ¡­ Wander Franco
It bodes well for Franco that even an injury-riddled, and frequently frustrating, season yielded a 117 OPS+ and 2.6 WAR. Most players would gladly take that, especially at 21 years old. But for the former top overall prospect, that was considered a disappointment.

He¡¯ll likely be the team MVP even if he merely repeats what he¡¯s already done in the Majors. Put together Franco¡¯s first two partial seasons, and you have a .282/.337/.439 hitter with 6.1 WAR over 153 games. That would be the 10th-best position-player season in franchise history in terms of WAR. But that will require Franco to put together a full, healthy season -- something he hasn¡¯t yet done at this level.

If he does that, and he takes a step forward? He might be the AL MVP, not just the Rays¡¯ MVP.

Team Cy Young will be ¡­ Shane McClanahan
No surprise here. McClanahan would have been a top AL Cy Young Award contender last year if not for a left shoulder injury and a slight step back in the second half. Now, he is motivated to improve upon an excellent season in which he posted a 2.54 ERA with 194 strikeouts in 166 1/3 innings over 28 starts. He has the stuff, talent and drive to do so. Put simply, it feels unwise to bet against McClanahan accomplishing anything he sets his mind to.

Bold prediction: The Rays¡¯ pitching staff will be the best in the Majors
Let¡¯s put a number on this and say Tampa Bay will have MLB¡¯s lowest ERA as a team, a feat the club has accomplished only once (2012) despite employing so many impressive arms since its worst-to-first turnaround in 2008. It feels more realistic this season, however, considering the depth of the Rays¡¯ rotation and the number of nasty arms in their bullpen.

The Dodgers have led the Majors in ERA each of the last four years, and the Astros paced the AL on that front last season. This year, we¡¯ll say the Rays return to the postseason for a fifth consecutive season on the strength of baseball¡¯s best pitching staff.