Rays upgrade offense without sacrificing defense
This story was excerpted from Adam Berry's Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
TAMPA, Fla. -- Nearly four months ago, Erik Neander sat inside Tropicana Field and laid out the Rays¡¯ formula for success and a potential path toward improvement.
Only days removed from the end of the Rays¡¯ first losing season since 2017, Neander was faced with plenty of questions about how to upgrade a lineup that scored more runs than only the White Sox last year. Specifically, at one point in the end-of-season press conference, Tampa Bay¡¯s president of baseball operations was asked if the club might reconsider its long-held bent toward defense to find a little more offense.
¡°It¡¯s a really good question. When your run total is ¡ there, typically the easiest way to improve your team is to address the weakest component, which in this case would be run-scoring, not run prevention,¡± Neander said on Oct. 4. ¡°That being said, our goal is to win games, right? And you¡¯ve just got to outscore the opponent as many nights as possible.
¡°I think most likely the recipe is going to be pitching, defense and then athleticism and timely hitting as we go forward. But I do think there¡¯s ways we can maintain that defensive integrity and standard while also injecting a little more power into the lineup and more offensive contributions.¡±
In other words, why not both? The Rays¡¯ three biggest position-player moves this offseason have reflected that idea of maintaining their defensive capability while adding a little more offense up the middle.
They traded Jose Siri to the Mets and handed the center-field job to Jonny DeLuca. They added free-agent catcher Danny Jansen. And now they¡¯ve agreed to sign Ha-Seong Kim, who should become the regular shortstop when he fully recovers from right shoulder surgery.
Kim is an ideal fit, one we suggested in this space earlier this month but didn¡¯t expect for two years and $29 million. He¡¯s an excellent middle-infield defender, a 2023 Gold Glove Award winner who ranks 16th among all infielders in Outs Above Average since 2022. Rays officials have praised Taylor Walls as the best defensive shortstop in baseball, but Kim has put himself in an elite class, too.
What makes Kim an overall upgrade is his bat. He totaled 10.7 WAR in 2022-23 due to his great defense and above-average offensive production. Those two years, Kim hit .256/.338/.391 -- good for a 106 OPS+ -- with 28 homers and 50 stolen bases. He took a step back last year, but he still had a .700 OPS (and 2.6 WAR) in 470 plate appearances. Even that kind of output would dramatically upgrade the bottom of Tampa Bay¡¯s lineup.
It's a similar story with DeLuca. Siri ranked fourth among all outfielders in OAA last year, and there¡¯s no doubt he was a game-changing playmaker in center field. But DeLuca wasn¡¯t far behind, checking in at 17th in 254 2/3 fewer innings. With more playing time, it¡¯s possible DeLuca could also establish himself as one of the game¡¯s top defensive outfielders.
Siri¡¯s offensive contributions were often highlight-reel homers, as he hit 25 in 2023 and 18 last year, but he was limited by his low average and his extreme strikeout rates. DeLuca¡¯s offensive numbers from last year don¡¯t necessarily jump off the page, either, as he slashed just .217/.278/.331. But he was better down the stretch, posting a .265/.315/.392 line with a more reasonable 16.2% strikeout rate in 50 games after Randy Arozarena was traded to Seattle. The projection systems are buying in, too, with FanGraphs¡¯ Depth Charts and Steamer forecasting a league-average 100 wRC+ for DeLuca this year.
And then there¡¯s Jansen, who was the Majors¡¯ top-rated blocking catcher last year and has put up above-average framing and throwing numbers in the past. Whereas the Rays¡¯ catchers slashed just .194/.272/.291 as a group last season, Jansen owns a league-average 100 OPS+ for his career. He was even better than that from 2021-23, recording an .805 OPS with 43 homers in 228 games during that stretch.
None of this is to suggest those three hitters are going to save the Rays¡¯ lineup on their own. If they¡¯re going to have a reversal of fortune at the plate, it¡¯ll most likely be led by the guys who should be batting closer to the top of the order most nights: Yandy D¨ªaz, Brandon Lowe, Junior Caminero, Josh Lowe, Christopher Morel and perhaps Jonathan Aranda.
But with three moves, the Rays have potentially accomplished their goal of adding depth to their lineup while maintaining that up-the-middle ¡°defensive integrity¡± Neander mentioned as the offseason began.