Japanese ace Sasaki coming to MLB next season

November 9th, 2024

Ace Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki appears headed to the Majors next season.

Sasaki, the consensus top young pitcher in Japan, will be posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines of Nippon Professional Baseball, the team announced.

"Since I joined [the Marines], I have continued to listen to my future MLB challenges, and I am grateful to the team for officially allowing me to post," Sasaki said of his posting.

"There were a lot of things that happened, but I was able to get to this point by focusing solely on baseball, with the support of my teammates, staff, front office, and fans, so I don't have any regrets in my baseball career.¡±

Sasaki, who turned 23 on Nov. 3, made his NPB debut in 2021 and has dominated the competition over four seasons with the Marines. With a fastball that touches 100 mph, a devastating splitter and an improving slider, Sasaki has posted a lifetime 2.02 ERA with 524 strikeouts and 91 walks in 414 2/3 innings.

The righty pitched the 16th perfect game in NPB history against the Orix Buffaloes on April 10, 2022, while also tying the NPB record with 19 strikeouts and setting a record with 13 consecutive K¡¯s. He followed that up with another flawless start against the Nippon Ham-Fighters, tossing eight perfect innings with 14 K¡¯s.

Sasaki experienced a bit of a down season by his standards in 2024, with his ERA (2.35), WHIP (1.04), strikeout rate (28.7%), walk rate (7.1%) and K/BB ratio (4.03) all regressing and his average fastball velocity dropping from 98.9 mph to 96.9 mph year over year.

Still, Sasaki should inspire an all-out pursuit reminiscent of Shohei Ohtani¡¯s initial contract with the Angels, in league-wide interest -- and the limited financial scope. Ohtani agreed to a $2.315 million signing bonus with the Angels in December 2017.

An unfettered market would have yielded a much larger contract, but foreign-born players are subject to international bonus pool money restrictions unless they are at least 25 years of age and have played as a professional in a foreign league recognized by Major League Baseball for a minimum of six seasons.

Ohtani was not yet 25 years old when he was posted by the Ham Fighters, so the Collective Bargaining Agreement classified him as an international amateur. Sasaki falls into the same category now. Like Ohtani in 2017, whichever MLB team signs Sasaki would have him under control for six years of service time before he¡¯d be eligible for unrestricted free agency.

On the contrary, Yoshinobu Yamamoto had already turned 25 years old when he was posted by Orix last offseason, so he was not subject to any salary restrictions as a free agent. He ended up signing a 12-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers in January, the largest contract for a pitcher in baseball history.

Yamamoto¡¯s contract followed the record 10-year, $700 million free-agent contract Ohtani signed with the Dodgers in December. Together, the two Japanese stars helped Los Angeles win a World Series title in 2024.

The Dodgers, whose global brand never has been more powerful, are seen as a top candidate to sign Sasaki when he becomes available. Sasaki, Ohtani and Yamamoto all played together for their native country in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, leading Samurai Japan to the WBC title.

Once Sasaki is posted, all 30 MLB clubs will have 45 days to negotiate with him. Per the rules of the posting system, if no agreement is reached in that timeframe, Sasaki would return to his NPB club for the 2025 season and would not be eligible for posting again until next offseason.

The MLB club that signs Sasaki will have to pay a ¡°release fee¡± to Chiba Lotte. For Major League contracts with a total guaranteed value of $25 million or less, the release fee is 20% of the total guaranteed value of the contract.

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