The Roki Sasaki sweepstakes are reportedly down to a select group of teams, and it¡¯s difficult to overstate just how impactful his decision is going to be.

Sasaki, 23, didn¡¯t just post a 2.02 ERA across parts of four seasons with the Chiba Lotte Marines; he also showed the kind of underlying metrics in terms of pitch velocity, spin and shape that teams value more highly than anything. That¡¯s exactly the kind of analysis that helped bring Yoshinobu Yamamoto his 12-year, $325 million dollar contract with the Dodgers last year ¨C trust us, it wasn¡¯t about wins and losses or ERA.

Of course, Sasaki¡¯s case has one enormously different aspect than Yamamoto¡¯s, which is that he¡¯s not a true free agent, because he isn¡¯t 25 and didn¡¯t play at least six seasons in a professional foreign league. He¡¯s thus subject to international bonus pool restrictions, like Shohei Ohtani once was, and so the monetary differences between interested parties will be considerably slimmer ¨C which might mean that the dollars aren¡¯t the ultimate decider in this case, at least not more than fit, location and other considerations.

Needless to say, an all-world talent who won¡¯t even turn 24 until November would be an incredibly desirable proposition for any team. But, of the seven clubs reported to have met with Sasaki ¨C the Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Padres, Rangers and Yankees ¨C who needs him most? (What about a mystery team? We'll get to that, too.)

As we near the start of the 2025 international amateur signing period on Jan. 15, it¡¯s time to do a ranking, from the smallest need to the greatest.

7. Dodgers

File this one under ¡°let¡¯s not be greedy,¡± even though the Dodgers probably do need another starting pitcher. You may remember such times as ¡°starting Ben Casparius in Game 4 of the World Series before then losing Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler to free agency.¡± Though of course, adding Blake Snell in free agency and welcoming a healthy Ohtani back to the mound is a nice way to fill some high-quality innings, to say nothing of the ever-present likelihood that Clayton Kershaw returns.

The "need" here has more to do with how much you can actually rely on Tyler Glasnow, Ohtani, and returnees like Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May to stay healthy, and that's to say nothing of Bobby Miller¡¯s attempted rebound from a disastrous, injury-fueled campaign. We can¡¯t express enough how every single year this team is absolutely desperate for a healthy arm or three come October, so the team that has everything also needs this one thing. On the other hand, they have the No. 1 projected rotation at FanGraphs. You can find mid-level innings without being the team that gets the top international prospect, too.

6. Rangers

Texas has a strong pitch, which is that they¡¯re a recent World Series champion that once successfully convinced Yu Darvish to sign there. Yet a pursuit of Sasaki is more about the future than right now, because with Nathan Eovaldi back in the fold and Jacob deGrom healthy, plus veterans Jon Gray and Tyler Mahle and rookies Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker, Texas isn¡¯t exactly short on starting pitchers. (They¡¯re ranked No. 4, per FanGraphs.)

Of course, three of those names are 33 or older, Mahle has thrown 130 innings in a season exactly one time, and Leiter in particular has a great deal of work to do to prove he can even be an average Major League starter. They¡¯d love to have Sasaki, sure. Do they need him? Not as much as some others here.

5. Yankees

Like with the Rangers, it¡¯s here that it¡¯s important to remember Sasaki¡¯s youth. Because while New York¡¯s rotation looks quite good right now, after adding Max Fried, it¡¯s also fair to point out that Gerrit Cole turns 35 this year, with ever-present questions about his elbow. Carlos Rod¨®n has been OK but not great as a Yankee, Marcus Stroman is a trade candidate (after Nestor Cortes already was dealt), and there¡¯s not a great deal of high-level nearly-ready pitching in the farm system.

¡°Need¡± can mean different things in different places, so you might also say they ¡°need¡± another big splash after losing Juan Soto to the cross-town Mets. They¡¯ve also hardly stood still since, though, adding Fried, Devin Williams, Paul Goldschmidt, Fernando Cruz and Cody Bellinger. What they really need is another infielder.

4. Mets

Speaking of those Mets: Their winter wasn¡¯t just about Soto. They entered the offseason with maybe two viable starters in Kodai Senga and David Peterson, and while they have indeed addressed that need ¨C bringing back Sean Manaea and adding Clay Holmes, Griffin Canning and Frankie Montas ¨C it¡¯s still a highly risky and somewhat older group without a true ace, pending Senga¡¯s return to health after an injury-ruined 2024.

All that adding has done is gotten them all the way to a rotation that is merely ranked No. 19, and for a team that wants to win now as well as in the future, that¡¯s simply not good enough. What pitcher wouldn't prefer to have Soto supporting him in the lineup, rather than ever having to face him, anyway?

3. Cubs

If ¡°need¡± has anything to do with ¡°offseason splashes,¡± then the Cubs are like the Mets, in that they went out and acquired a superstar outfielder in Kyle Tucker. But unlike Soto, who should be playing in Queens roughly through the end of time, Tucker can be a free agent after 2025. That puts some additional pressure on Chicago to win this year, and their rotation has a handful of above-average starters ¨C Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele chief among them ¨C without any real bat-missing ace. (Cubs starters were tied for the fifth-weakest strikeout rate among rotations last year.) With Snell and Corbin Burnes off the market, that pitcher no longer exists among domestic options.

2. Giants

Speaking of combinations of ¡°team need¡± and ¡°big splash required,¡± enter the Giants and new president of baseball operations Buster Posey, who managed to add Willy Adames to the left side of the infield, but haven¡¯t managed to do much of anything else. (¡°After starting strong, the Giants¡¯ offseason could use a momentum boost,¡± wrote one recent local headline.) After being unable to sign Burnes, San Francisco finds itself in the same starting pitching range as the Mets and Cubs. Their rotation is ranked No. 22 at FanGraphs, with ace Logan Webb fronting a group (Robbie Ray, Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks) that¡¯s at least intriguing but with a lot of unproven young talent behind him and badly in need of a high-level supplement. The reported addition of Justin Verlander certainly adds a big name, but he turns 42 in February and is coming off a career worst 5.48 ERA. He's unlikely to move the needle on the field, and doesn't lessen the need for a long-term ace like Sasaki.

1. Padres

This is it. This is the one. The Padres have it all, which is to say they¡¯re the most desperate to land him. With Joe Musgrove out for the year due to elbow surgery, the top of the San Diego rotation consists of Dylan Cease (final year before free agency), Michael King (final year before free agency), and Darvish (38 years old). They live in a division where calling the Dodgers a ¡°big brother team¡± hardly begins to describe it, plus the competitive Diamondbacks and Giants; they have a number of players on huge, win-now contracts, like Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr.

They¡¯ve had an incredibly quiet offseason to date, and the biggest rumors around the team so far have been about trading players away, primarily Cease and Luis Arraez. If there's one thing that would turn the conversation around, it would be this: Keeping Sasaki away from Los Angeles. And it seems like a very real possibility.

¡°I think it¡¯s a good thing if he were to come to San Diego,¡± Darvish said via interpreter to The Athletic in December. ¡°Just for myself personally, if it does happen, yeah, it¡¯s a great thing for me as well. But we¡¯ll see how things shake out.¡±

The Dodgers might badly desire Sasaki. The Mets might really want him. The Padres need him, in a way no other club does.

Bonus! Mystery teams.

Beyond the known group of seven, MLB Network insider Jon Paul Morosi reported Tuesday that there may be at least one additional team in the finalist group that has met with Sasaki.

We don't know the identity of that team (or teams), but let us make a push for this trio, which would certainly fit the criteria for contenders in need: Blue Jays, Orioles and Guardians.

It¡¯s not clear how seriously those clubs have pursued Sasaki or, in some cases, if they even did at all. But the Jays (projected No. 23 rotation), Orioles (No. 25) and Guardians (No. 27) are a trio of American League teams that view themselves as contenders, while sharing a common theme: relatively unimpressive rotations and quiet winters.

Not that it¡¯s for lack of trying, in Toronto¡¯s case, as the Blue Jays have been connected to a number of big-ticket free agents. If you¡¯re surprised by how low they rank despite a recently successful rotation full of big names, remember that Alek Manoah and Ricky Tiedemann are injured, Chris Bassitt will turn 36 in February, and Kevin Gausman showed major signs of regression. The Orioles lost Burnes and have replaced him with one-year fill-in contracts for Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano; the Guardians, known for years for their pitching, made it to the ALCS in spite of their rotation, not because of it.

You could surely make a legitimate case for each of the 30 teams in terms of needing Sasaki, because who wouldn¡¯t find use for a talented 23-year-old on a limited-cost contract? But among the teams that didn¡¯t make the reported finalist list, and seem like possible landing spots, those are the three that stick out the most.