Who will win Rookie of the Year in '24? We polled baseball execs
Jonathan Mayo
@JonathanMayoIn last year¡¯s MLB Pipeline Poll, executives across baseball overwhelmingly picked Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson to win Rookie of the Year honors in the National and American Leagues. They turned out to be right on the money, as both were unanimous choices for the hardware.
Predicting this year¡¯s winners might be a taller task. There is no real favorite in the American League and while it¡¯s not as clear-cut in the National League, the news of Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto signing with the Dodgers certainly changed the landscape there.
- Part 1: Rookies of the Year
- Part 2: Prospects
- Part 3: Tools
- Part 4: Farm Systems
As part of our survey, we asked front office officials -- including general managers, members of scouting player development and analytics departments -- a huge array of questions. We received responses from all 30 organizations in the hopes of providing as large a cross-section of opinion as possible. Answers on many topics will be discussed in a week-long series, starting with their collective take on who will be the 2024 Rookie of the Year winners.
Here are the results:
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Also received votes: Michael Busch, 3B/2B, Dodgers; Kyle Harrison, LHP, Giants; Jacob Hurtubise, OF, Reds; James Wood, OF, Nationals
Full disclosure here: This survey first was sent out before Yamamoto had agreed to join the Dodgers. Those who responded did so at different times, some before the news broke, some after. This initially started out as a very tight race, but we afforded those who had answered pre-Yamamoto the opportunity to change their vote, and many did.
While Yamamoto doesn¡¯t qualify as a prospect (We use the same rules that govern the international bonus system for our rankings.), he is eligible for Rookie of the Year honors, much like Kaz Sasaki and Ichiro when they won in 2000 and 2001. Given his success in Japan and the knowledge he¡¯s going to step right into a playoff-caliber team¡¯s rotation, it¡¯s not a big leap to think he has a very good chance to win the NL Award in 2024.
Yamamoto took votes away from several other candidates who received multiple votes. The most, as it turned out, came from the guy in second place, Chourio, who of course made big news when he signed an eight-year, $82-million deal with the Brewers before he¡¯s played a single game in the big leagues. As a 19-year old, the phenom put in a 20-40 season and touched Triple-A for the first time, then put up good numbers in 17 Venezuelan Winter League games to boot. The Brewers should be looking for a return on that long-term investment right away.
Several evaluators switched from one right-hander to another. Skenes, the No. 1 pick in last year¡¯s Draft, had received more support before Yamamoto signed, and many believe he¡¯s going to be in Pittsburgh sooner rather than later, perhaps following a Stephen Strasburg-like path (He made his debut in early June of his first full season), maybe even making it up earlier than that to compete for ROY honors.
Marte could be a very good sleeper pick after he hit .316/.366/.456 during his 35-game big league debut last year and reeled off a long hitting streak to finish his season. He could put up some big numbers in a full season.
Both Crow-Armstrong and Lawlar got their feet wet last year, without too much to show for it, but both are expected to play big roles in the daily lineup for the Cubs and D-backs.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Also received votes: Heston Kjerstad, OF, Orioles; Brooks Lee, SS, Twins; Curtis Mead, 3B/2B, Rays; Austin Wells, C, Yankees
It's not a huge surprise that Carter leads a tight race, given his strong regular-season debut (1.058 OPS over 23 games) and the fact that he posted a .300/.417/.500 line during the Rangers¡¯ run to their first World Series title. The assumption is he¡¯ll be in the big league lineup from Day 1 in 2024, and while he saw most of his time in left field during his debut, he certainly has the skills to be an everyday center fielder in the big leagues. The hitting and on-base skills are legit and if the 21-year-old¡¯s power starts to show up more consistently, he could run away with this thing.
Holliday, of course, was the No. 1 pick in the 2022 Draft, and is the No. 1 prospect on our current Top 100. All he did in his first full season is play across four levels and finishing the proverbial phone call away in Triple-A, with a combined .332/.442/.499 line. He played the whole season at age 19, walked over 100 times, stole 24 bases and played solid defense up the middle. There is the question of where he¡¯ll play, given the depth of talent in Baltimore and the top of the system, but there¡¯s clearly strong sentiment that he¡¯s going to get called up early enough to give the Orioles the chance to win back-to-back Rookie of the Year Awards.
Caminero and Langford are the only other players who received multiple votes. Caminero got his feet wet late last year after hitting .324 with 31 homers in the Minors, getting called up from Double-A, to set the stage for a potential huge rookie campaign in Tampa, while not turning 21 until July, if he can break into the lineup. Langford could give the Rangers a second ROY candidate, amazing considering he was a 2023 draftee, but the fact that he finished his summer debut in Triple-A and finished with a combined 1.157 OPS in 44 games has put him on a very fast track.