Judge just had his postseason breakout. Is Ohtani next?

October 16th, 2024

The Dodgers and Yankees each made it to their respective League Championship Series, and they combined to win three of the first four games of those series, and yet they each had a similar question to answer: Why have our biggest hitting superstars not done a whole lot so far?

We are, of course, talking about and , almost certainly the soon-to-be-minted MVP Award winners.

Ohtani has hit just .222/.344/.333 in his first seven postseason games, entering Wednesday¡¯s Game 3 of the NLCS in New York. The only real damage he¡¯s done came back in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Padres, when he homered off Dylan Cease in his second plate appearance. "What I do know is that we've been playing against good teams, better teams, with their best pitchers. So being able to get base hits, put up results, isn't as easy as maybe it could be," he said.

Judge, meanwhile, entered Game 2 of the ALCS with a line of just .133/.364/.200 in five games this October -- contributing to a growing pile of underwhelming playoff hitting -- and then failed to reach in his first three plate appearances before finally going long with a seventh-inning home run.

It's hard to say that one single swing is going to turn around his postseason, but it is more than a little notable that the kind of pitch he hit was exactly along the lines of the scouting report that's been giving him such trouble this month. What's been causing his struggle -- and if we really did just see the start of an October breakout, can we say that Ohtani is coming next?

1. It¡¯s a small sample ¨C and hitters always do worse in the playoffs.

OK, yes: Both true. Ohtani posting an OPS below .700 in a seven-game span of 32 or more plate appearances isn¡¯t exactly unheard of, is it? He¡¯s done it hundreds of times. You just notice it a whole lot more right now than you did, say, between May 31 and June 7, when he hit .172/.250/.276, mostly against the Rockies and Pirates. It¡¯s baseball. These things happen.

In addition, because the postseason means a hitter is only facing the best pitching teams, and only the best pitchers on those teams, with much more aggressive usage, batting lines always go down. This year, that¡¯s a .648 postseason OPS, down from the regular season¡¯s .711. While Giancarlo Stanton and Kik¨¦ Hern¨¢ndez are doing their best to disprove that it¡¯s harder to hit in October, it overwhelmingly is.

Those are real, valid reasons -- yet maybe also not terribly satisfying ones for two of baseball¡¯s best. What about each of their individual cases?

2. Ohtani: It's the first pitch.

There¡¯s been this fun stat floating around this postseason that goes like this:

Ohtani is hitless in 19 plate appearances with the bases empty, and is 6-for-8 with three walks when there are runners on base.

It¡¯s notable because it¡¯s so wild and interesting, and also because it¡¯s probably not all that predictive or meaningful, given that we¡¯re now slicing tiny samples into even tinier samples. There¡¯s also the fact that, for a variety of reasons, hitters are generally better with runners on base. Not to this extent, of course, but +53 points of OPS across the Majors this year isn¡¯t nothing, right?

But here¡¯s the more interesting version of that stat, and it¡¯ll help us get to what¡¯s really going on.

  • With bases empty: 10 strikeouts (48% K rate)
  • With runners on base: 2 strikeouts (19% K rate)

Again, you generally expect hitters to perform a little better with runners on base, because the pitcher has more to worry about, and because that¡¯s likely a pitcher who just failed to retire a hitter anyway -- but not to this extent.

So why do we say watch for the first pitch? Because while the outcomes he¡¯s having with runners on or not may be a little fluky, the processes that go into them are clearly noticeable, which we can clearly sum up in two pictures.

With runners on base, pitchers have been far more cautious about giving Ohtani anything to hit on the first pitch, and he¡¯s smartly dropped his first-pitch swing rate in kind. Not chasing on the first pitch helps put him in better hitter¡¯s counts, which in turn help lead to better outcomes later in the at-bat.

The shape there is the same, is the point. With runners on, he¡¯s getting a lot fewer first pitches in the zone (27%, down from September¡¯s 56%), and he¡¯s swinging less in reply (36%, down from September¡¯s 51%). Everything is as it should be.

But when the bases are empty? The picture is far different. He¡¯s not really seeing any more or fewer strikes on 0-0 than he was in the regular season. He¡¯s just swinging much, much more often.

That first-pitch swing rate has jumped from 44% to 67% with the bases empty, even though the rate of pitches in the zone hasn¡¯t changed much at all. Put it this way: In August, he went after exactly four first pitches with the bases empty outside the zone all month long. In October, he¡¯s done it five times already.

Is that simply pressing, of feeling the pressure in your long-awaited first postseason? We won¡¯t pretend to get inside his head in that way -- though the World Baseball Classic was pretty pressure-packed, too, and it didn¡¯t stop him from being named the MVP of the tournament.

It might be that. It might also be that when he struck out seven of 10 times against two Padres pitchers who clearly have his number -- Tanner Scott and Yu Darvish -- that the bases were empty eight times, too. The bases were empty all three times he faced Sean Manaea in NLCS Game 2, as well, and he struck out twice there.

It¡¯s a little chicken-and-the-egg; it could be that Scott, Darvish and Manaea would have done the same against Ohtani had the bases been full of runners. But the next time you see Ohtani come to the plate with no one on base against the Mets, you know what to look for on the first pitch. If he¡¯s swinging at anything and everything, it¡¯s going to be a problem.

3. Judge: Watch the eye level.

It¡¯s a little different here, given that this is Ohtani¡¯s first postseason experience, while Judge has been in 50 games going back to 2017. It¡¯s easy to forget, now, given his recent struggles, that he does have 14 postseason home runs, slowly climbing up the all-time list. If the postseason hasn¡¯t exactly increased his star power, it¡¯s also not like he¡¯s never, ever had success there, either.

In his case, it¡¯s not about strikeouts at all, as his 27% rate entering Game 2 is barely different from his 28% career strikeout rate. Nor is it about hitting the ball hard. His 60% hard-hit rate in October is excellent, and squarely in line with his regular season marks. It¡¯s also not about bat speed, which is as fast as ever this month.

If you want to say ¡°there¡¯s some bad luck¡± here, that¡¯s probably true. His batting average is running more than 50 points behind his expected stats, based on the quality of his contact -- dig this 114 mph lineout snagged by Bobby Witt Jr., for one -- but even the expected stats aren¡¯t that great, and you can avoid any issues with luck or defenders by putting home runs into the seats, which he¡¯s clearly not doing.

He is, however, being pitched quite differently. Let¡¯s talk about eye levels, the changing of which pitchers have been talking about since the beginning of the sport. This October is the 50th different month of his career, postseason included, that he¡¯s seen at least 10 four-seamers and 10 breaking balls. When you look at the height they¡¯re being delivered to, you¡¯ll find something fascinating.

  • The fastballs: Are coming in higher than any of the previous 49 months
  • The breakers: Are coming in lower than all but one of the previous 49 months

There¡¯s an extra half-foot, vertically, and it might be what¡¯s causing this:

  • The fastballs: 67% of his batted balls are hit to center, up from his usual 32%.
  • The breakers: His hard-hit rate is down to 25% from his usual 50%.

But we promised before there was going to be something meaningful about Tuesday's home run, and it's this: It was the second-highest pitch he's ever hit for a home run, regular season and post, all 329 of them in his career. Perhaps more importantly, it was the highest fastball he's ever hit for a home run. It's not that Hunter Gaddis didn't know the scouting report. It's not that he didn't hit his spot. It's that Judge finally managed to get enough bat on it to get it out that high, even if to center.

If these sound like relatively minor reasons, they are. Ohtani¡¯s issues appear to be about approach. Judge¡¯s issues appear to be about inches. It doesn¡¯t seem like either issue is one that can¡¯t be solved in a single night. Judge, perhaps, already has solved his issue. Can Ohtani be next?

seductrice.net
universo-virtual.com
buytrendz.net
thisforall.net
benchpressgains.com
qthzb.com
mindhunter9.com
dwjqp1.com
secure-signup.net
ahaayy.com
tressesindia.com
puresybian.com
krpano-chs.com
cre8workshop.com
hdkino.org
peixun021.com
qz786.com
utahperformingartscenter.org
worldqrmconference.com
shangyuwh.com
eejssdfsdfdfjsd.com
playminecraftfreeonline.com
trekvietnamtour.com
your-business-articles.com
essaywritingservice10.com
hindusamaaj.com
joggingvideo.com
wandercoups.com
wormblaster.net
tongchengchuyange0004.com
internetknowing.com
breachurch.com
peachesnginburlesque.com
dataarchitectoo.com
clientfunnelformula.com
30pps.com
cherylroll.com
ks2252.com
prowp.net
webmanicura.com
sofietsshotel.com
facetorch.com
nylawyerreview.com
apapromotions.com
shareparelli.com
goeaglepointe.com
thegreenmanpubphuket.com
karotorossian.com
publicsensor.com
taiwandefence.com
epcsur.com
mfhoudan.com
southstills.com
tvtv98.com
thewellington-hotel.com
bccaipiao.com
colectoresindustrialesgs.com
shenanddcg.com
capriartfilmfestival.com
replicabreitlingsale.com
thaiamarinnewtoncorner.com
gkmcww.com
mbnkbj.com
andrewbrennandesign.com
cod54.com
luobinzhang.com
faithfirst.net
zjyc28.com
tongchengjinyeyouyue0004.com
nhuan6.com
kftz5k.com
oldgardensflowers.com
lightupthefloor.com
bahamamamas-stjohns.com
ly2818.com
905onthebay.com
fonemenu.com
notanothermovie.com
ukrainehighclassescort.com
meincmagazine.com
av-5858.com
yallerdawg.com
donkeythemovie.com
corporatehospitalitygroup.com
boboyy88.com
miteinander-lernen.com
dannayconsulting.com
officialtomsshoesoutletstore.com
forsale-amoxil-amoxicillin.net
generictadalafil-canada.net
guitarlessonseastlondon.com
lesliesrestaurants.com
mattyno9.com
nri-homeloans.com
rtgvisas-qatar.com
salbutamolventolinonline.net
sportsinjuries.info
wedsna.com
rgkntk.com
bkkmarketplace.com
zxqcwx.com
breakupprogram.com
boxcardc.com
unblockyoutubeindonesia.com
fabulousbookmark.com
beat-the.com
guatemala-sailfishing-vacations-charters.com
magie-marketing.com
kingstonliteracy.com
guitaraffinity.com
eurelookinggoodapparel.com
howtolosecheekfat.net
marioncma.org
oliviadavismusic.com
shantelcampbellrealestate.com
shopleborn13.com
topindiafree.com
v-visitors.net
djjky.com
053hh.com
originbluei.com
baucishotel.com
33kkn.com
intrinsiqresearch.com
mariaescort-kiev.com
mymaguk.com
sponsored4u.com
crimsonclass.com
bataillenavale.com
searchtile.com
ze-stribrnych-struh.com
zenithalhype.com
modalpkv.com
bouisset-lafforgue.com
useupload.com
37r.net
autoankauf-muenster.com
bantinbongda.net
bilgius.com
brabustermagazine.com
indigrow.org
miicrosofts.net
mysmiletravel.com
selinasims.com
spellcubesapp.com
usa-faction.com
hypoallergenicdogsnames.com
dailyupdatez.com
foodphotographyreviews.com
cricutcom-setup.com
chprowebdesign.com
katyrealty-kanepa.com
tasramar.com
bilgipinari.org
four-am.com
indiarepublicday.com
inquick-enbooks.com
iracmpi.com
kakaschoenen.com
lsm99flash.com
nana1255.com
ngen-niagara.com
technwzs.com
virtualonlinecasino1345.com
wallpapertop.net
casino-natali.com
iprofit-internet.com
denochemexicana.com
eventhalfkg.com
medcon-taiwan.com
life-himawari.com
myriamshomes.com
nightmarevue.com
healthandfitnesslives.com
androidnews-jp.com
allstarsru.com
bestofthebuckeyestate.com
bestofthefirststate.com
bestwireless7.com
britsmile.com
declarationintermittent.com
findhereall.com
jingyou888.com
lsm99deal.com
lsm99galaxy.com
moozatech.com
nuagh.com
patliyo.com
philomenamagikz.net
rckouba.net
saturnunipessoallda.com
tallahasseefrolics.com
thematurehardcore.net
totalenvironment-inthatquietearth.com
velislavakaymakanova.com
vermontenergetic.com
kakakpintar.com
jerusalemdispatch.com
begorgeouslady.com
1800birks4u.com
2wheelstogo.com
6strip4you.com
bigdata-world.net
emailandco.net
gacapal.com
jharpost.com
krishnaastro.com
lsm99credit.com
mascalzonicampani.com
sitemapxml.org
thecityslums.net
topagh.com
flairnetwebdesign.com
rajasthancarservices.com
bangkaeair.com
beneventocoupon.com
noternet.org
oqtive.com
smilebrightrx.com
decollage-etiquette.com
1millionbestdownloads.com
7658.info
bidbass.com
devlopworldtech.com
digitalmarketingrajkot.com
fluginfo.net
naqlafshk.com
passion-decouverte.com
playsirius.com
spacceleratorintl.com
stikyballs.com
top10way.com
yokidsyogurt.com
zszyhl.com
16firthcrescent.com
abogadolaboralistamd.com
apk2wap.com
aromacremeria.com
banparacard.com
bosmanraws.com
businessproviderblog.com
caltonosa.com
calvaryrevivalchurch.org
chastenedsoulwithabrokenheart.com
cheminotsgardcevennes.com
cooksspot.com
cqxzpt.com
deesywig.com
deltacartoonmaps.com
despixelsetdeshommes.com
duocoracaobrasileiro.com
fareshopbd.com
goodpainspills.com
hemendekor.com
kobisitecdn.com
makaigoods.com
mgs1454.com
piccadillyresidences.com
radiolaondafresca.com
rubendorf.com
searchengineimprov.com
sellmyhrvahome.com
shugahouseessentials.com
sonihullquad.com
subtractkilos.com
valeriekelmansky.com
vipasdigitalmarketing.com
voolivrerj.com
worldhealthstory.com
zeelonggroup.com
1015southrockhill.com
10x10b.com
111-online-casinos.com
191cb.com
3665arpentunitd.com
aitesonics.com
bag-shokunin.com
brightotech.com
communication-digitale-services.com
covoakland.org
dariaprimapack.com
freefortniteaccountss.com
gatebizglobal.com
global1entertainmentnews.com
greatytene.com
hiroshiwakita.com
iktodaypk.com
jahatsakong.com
meadowbrookgolfgroup.com
newsbharati.net
platinumstudiosdesign.com
slotxogamesplay.com
strikestaruk.com
techguroh.com
trucosdefortnite.com
ufabetrune.com
weddedtowhitmore.com
12940brycecanyonunitb.com
1311dietrichoaks.com
2monarchtraceunit303.com
601legendhill.com
850elaine.com
adieusolasomade.com
andora-ke.com
bestslotxogames.com
cannagomcallen.com
endlesslyhot.com
iestpjva.com
ouqprint.com
pwmaplefest.com
qtylmr.com
rb88betting.com
buscadogues.com
1007macfm.com
born-wild.com
growthinvests.com
promocode-casino.com
proyectogalgoargentina.com
wbthompson-art.com
whitemountainwheels.com
7thavehvl.com
developmethis.com
funkydogbowties.com
travelodgegrandjunction.com
gao-town.com
globalmarketsuite.com
blogshippo.com
hdbka.com
proboards67.com
outletonline-michaelkors.com
kalkis-research.com
thuthuatit.net
buckcash.com
hollistercanada.com
docterror.com
asadart.com
vmayke.org
erwincomputers.com
dirimart.org
okkii.com
loteriasdecehegin.com
mountanalog.com
healingtaobritain.com
ttxmonitor.com
nwordpress.com
11bolabonanza.com