Is Skenes best Draft pitching prospect ever? Ranking the top 10

July 6th, 2023

just completed one of the most memorable college pitching seasons ever.

Skenes led Louisiana State to a national championship and won Most Outstanding Player honors at the College World Series after earning Southeastern Conference pitcher of the year accolades. He topped NCAA Division I in strikeouts (209, eclipsing Ben McDonald's SEC and school records), strikeouts per nine innings (15.3) and WHIP (0.75) while ranking second in victories (12), ERA (1.69) and opponent average (.165).

"The only reason to not take Skenes No. 1 is philosophical, because you won't take a pitcher," a national crosschecker said. "I'm taking Skenes. The size, the command, the velocity, the slider, the way he pitches with the good killer instinct ... It's hard to pass on that."

Without a doubt, Skenes is the best pitching prospect in this year's Draft. The question is, is he the best ever since MLB introduced its Draft in 1965?

There have been several pitchers who laid claim to that title during the nearly six decades of the Draft, but Stephen Strasburg essentially retired the debate in 2009. Until now.

To that point, no Draft prospect ever had been hyped as much as Strasburg was 14 years ago, and he lived up to it. After striking out 23 in a single game against Utah and becoming the lone collegian to make the U.S. Olympic team in 2008, he destroyed college hitters in 2009. He pitched San Diego State to the NCAA regionals for the first time in 18 seasons, spun a no-hitter in his final home game and led D-I in ERA (1.32), strikeouts (195), strikeout rate (16.1, the fourth-highest mark ever) and hits per nine innings (5.4).

Strasburg owned the best fastball and curveball in his Draft class, while Skenes features the top heater and slider in his. Both of them reached 102 mph - Strasburg did so in an era where no one else could - and both flashed a plus changeup that they rarely needed while posting nearly as many wins as walks. The 6-foot-6, 235-pound Skenes is taller and more physical than the 6-foot-4, 220-pound Strasburg was.

We've spent the spring asking veteran scouts whether Skenes has seized Strasburg's throne. It's a close call and both have their proponents.

"I think Skenes has a better fastball and command and Strasburg has better secondary pitches," a special assistant said. "The big separator is Skenes has much cleaner arm action and less effort to his delivery."

"Skenes is absolutely on the short list but is he the best pitcher I've ever scouted? I don't know that I can quite say that," countered a vice president of player personnel. "His stuff is right there with Strasburg and he's a very good athlete for a big guy. But Strasburg is the best pitcher I've ever scouted because he pitched better."

"They're tough to compare in some ways," a vice president of scouting said. "I would lean Strasburg, who was throwing 100 mph when nobody was, and he could spot it up on the edges of the plate. I thought his fastball played a little better, too. It would be close, though."

It says here that Strasburg barely retains his title because his stuff was more extraordinary compared to his era and his control and command were a little finer. Skenes comes in second on our top 10 list below, which is based on the pitchers' talent at the time they were drafted.

We focused on including guys who were mentioned as the Draft's best-ever pitching prospect at the time, rather than just loading up our list with a bunch of recent arms with souped-up stuff. So with apologies to Paul Wilson, Gerrit Cole, Dylan Bundy and others, here is our ranking:

1. Stephen Strasburg, San Diego State (No. 1 overall, 2009, Nationals)
Repeated injuries may mean that Strasburg's career is over and will fall short of the Hall of Fame, but he also won 113 games and a World Series MVP award, made three All-Star teams and ranks seventh all-time in strikeout rate (10.5 per nine innings).

2. Paul Skenes, Louisiana State (2023)
As a sophomore at Air Force a year ago, Skenes was the only D-I player to reach doubles figures in both wins and home runs, and his considerable power potential would land him in the top three rounds if he were purely a position player.

3. Mark Prior, Southern California (No. 2 overall, 2001, Cubs)
Prior had superlative stuff, but his command and effortless delivery were what set him apart. He reached the Majors nine months after turning pro and finished third in National League Cy Young Award voting after pitching the Cubs to within a game of the World Series in 2003 - in what proved to be his only full and completely healthy big league season. He led the Majors in strikeout rate (10.2 per nine innings) in 2005 but was done at that level after nine more starts the next year.

4. Ben McDonald, Louisiana State (No. 1 overall, 1989, Orioles)
McDonald was the obvious No. 1 pick in '89 after dominating for Olympic gold medal-winning Team USA the summer before, and he further cemented that status with a 45-inning scoreless streak as a junior. A former basketball player at LSU as well, he smashed the bonus record ($350,000) and became the first drafted pitcher to land a big league contract (worth a guaranteed $824,000). He joined the Orioles after two Minor League starts and won 78 games in nine years while battling persistent shoulder problems.

5. Josh Beckett, Spring (Texas) HS (No. 2 overall, 1999, Marlins)
Twenty-four years after leaving high school, Beckett still reigns as the best prep pitcher ever. He threw in the mid-90s during an era when radar guns read significantly lower than they do now, featured an equally devastating curveball and impressed scouts with his off-the-charts competitive fire. A three-time All-Star, he was a key part of two championship teams, winning World Series MVP honors with the 2003 Marlins and American League Championship Series accolades with the 2007 Red Sox.

6. Todd Van Poppel, Martin (Texas) HS (No. 14 overall, 1990, Athletics)
Van Poppel had similar stuff to Beckett and was regarded as the top prospect in the '90 Draft, but signability concerns dropped him to the defending World Series champion A's at No. 14. It looked like a coup when Oakland signed him to an unprecedented $1.2 million big league contract, but that proved to be his downfall because he had to be in the Majors for good by 1994, when he still lacked polish. He recorded a 5.58 ERA in 11 seasons, mostly as a reliever.

7. Brien Taylor, East Carteret (N.C.) HS, (No. 1 overall, 1991, Yankees)
Taylor topped out in Double-A after tearing his rotator cuff in an off-field fight, but scouts still regard him as the top high school left-hander in Draft history. He owned a mid-90s fastball and a snapdragon curveball - sort of imagine Aroldis Chapman if he were a North Carolina prepster three decades ago - and rocked the industry by landing a $1.55 million bonus, nearly tripling the existing bonus record and topping Van Poppel's landmark contract.

8. David Clyde, Westchester (Texas) HS, (No. 1 overall, 1973, Rangers)
The only high school pitcher selected No. 1 in the first 26 Drafts, Clyde drew repeated Sandy Koufax comparisons after going 18-0 with a 0.18 ERA, a then-prep record 328 strikeouts in 148 innings and five shutouts in five Texas 5-A state playoff starts. The floundering Rangers signed him for $65,000 and immediately sent him to the big leagues, which produced sellout crowds that saved the franchise. But getting rushed ruined his career. He won seven games in three seasons with Texas and was done in the Majors by age 24.

9. Floyd Bannister, Arizona State (No. 1 overall, 1976, Astros)
Bannister won back-to-back NCAA D-I strikeout titles at Arizona State, where he was part of a '76 team that produced a record 13 big leaguers and set a since-broken record with 65 wins, yet finished third at the College World Series. One of the biggest lock No. 1 choices in the early years of the Draft, he earned 134 victories in 15 years in the big leagues, made one All-Star team and led the AL in whiffs once and whiff rate twice.

10. Burt Hooton, Texas (No. 2 overall, June secondary 1971, Cubs)
Hooton tried to throw a knuckleball as a teenager and wound up pioneering a knuckle-curve instead, and he rode that weapon to a 35-3 record with a 1.14 ERA in three college seasons at Texas. The rules at the time steered him to the secondary phase of the June Draft, where he went second overall and signed for $75,000 before making his pro debut in the Majors. He struck out 15 in his second big league start and twirled a shutout in his third that September, then tossed a no-hitter in his first start in 1972. While he didn't dominate to the same extent afterward, he won 151 games in 15 seasons and was MVP of the 1981 NL Championship Series en route to a World Series title with the Dodgers.

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