Here is every team's top projected player for '24

January 29th, 2024

Whether it's a championship contender, playoff hopeful or rebuilding club, each team has its share of special players worth watching. But who will every team¡¯s No. 1 player be in 2024? To answer that question, let¡¯s take a look at the Steamer projections on FanGraphs.

While there are some free agents who could shake up the list depending on where they land, these are the current top projected players for all 30 teams in 2024 by Wins Above Replacement.

AL EAST

Blue Jays: Kevin Gausman (4.3 WAR)
The late-blooming Gausman has developed into one of the best pitchers in baseball in his 30s, posting a 3.10 ERA, a 2.79 FIP and a 5.03 K/BB ratio over the past three seasons. After finishing third in the American League Cy Young race in 2023, Gausman could have another big year in store. He¡¯s projected for 4.3 WAR, tops among AL arms.

Orioles: Adley Rutschman (5.8 WAR)
Rutschman, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft, has lived up to the hype over his first two seasons, playing a pivotal role in the O¡¯s turnaround. The catcher is projected to rank fifth among position players in WAR, with 20 homers and a 130 wRC+.

Rays: Yandy D¨ªaz (4.4 WAR)
D¨ªaz broke out in 2023, winning the AL batting title with a .330 average and posting career highs in homers (22) and OPS (.932). Steamer doesn¡¯t think a dropoff is coming -- D¨ªaz¡¯s projected 144 wRC+ is the seventh best in MLB.

Red Sox: Rafael Devers (4.7 WAR)
A career .280/.343/.510 hitter, Devers has recorded 30-plus homers and 100-plus RBIs in three of the past four full seasons (excluding the shortened 2020 campaign). Steamer sees him reaching both of those plateaus again in 2024, projecting the 27-year-old for 36 homers and 103 RBIs to go with a 134 wRC+.

Yankees: Juan Soto (6.7 WAR)
With Soto joining Aaron Judge in the Yankees¡¯ lineup, the Bronx Bombers have two of the four position players projected for at least 6 WAR in 2024. Steamer views Soto as the best hitter in baseball, projecting him for an MLB-leading 171 wRC+ with 39 homers, which would be quite an impressive platform year before the 25-year-old reaches free agency next offseason.

AL CENTRAL

Guardians: Jos¨¦ Ram¨ªrez (5.2 WAR)
Ram¨ªrez has finished sixth or better in the AL MVP race five times since 2017, ranking third in MLB during that span in WAR (39.7, per FanGraphs) behind Mookie Betts and Judge. The Guardians star is projected for 27 homers and 23 steals, which would mark his sixth career 20/20 season, as well as the best WAR total among third basemen (tied with the Orioles¡¯ Gunnar Henderson).

Royals: Bobby Witt Jr. (4.8 WAR)
Witt and Ronald Acu?a Jr. were the only two players in baseball to reach both the 30-homer and 40-steal marks in 2023, and they¡¯re the only two players Steamer projects to accomplish both feats in the upcoming season as well. It¡¯s not something that has been done often. Entering 2024, there are just three players -- Bobby Bonds (four times), Barry Bonds (twice) and Alfonso Soriano (twice) -- with multiple 30/40 seasons on their r¨¦sum¨¦s.

Tigers: Tarik Skubal (4.0 WAR)
After a flexor tendon injury stalled what was a breakout season for Skubal in 2022, the left-hander flashed ace potential in his return to the mound last year, recording a 2.80 ERA with a 2.00 FIP and a 0.90 WHIP over 15 starts. If he stays healthy in 2024, Skubal could contend for the AL Cy Young Award. His projected WAR tally puts him ahead of luminaries such as Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes and Zac Gallen.

Twins: Pablo L¨®pez (4.1 WAR)
L¨®pez reached new heights with increased velocity and the addition of a dominant sweeper in 2023, tying for third in the Majors with 234 strikeouts while notching a 3.66 ERA. He¡¯s tied for the second-highest projected WAR figure among AL pitchers entering 2024, to go with a 3.52 ERA and 215 K¡¯s over 193 1/3 innings.

White Sox: Luis Robert Jr. (3.5 WAR)
While little else went right for the White Sox in 2023, the oft-injured Robert had his long-awaited breakout, finishing with 38 homers, 20 steals and an .857 OPS over 145 games. The center fielder is projected to fall one steal shy of his second straight 30/20 campaign in 2024.

AL WEST

Angels: Mike Trout (4.2 WAR)
With injuries taking their toll, Trout may have trouble returning to the stratospheric heights of his prime years. But if the three-time MVP can stay relatively healthy in 2024, he should still make a major impact, as evidenced by his projected marks of 37 homers, 95 RBIs, 100 runs and a 133 wRC+ over 146 games.

Astros: Yordan Alvarez (5.7 WAR)
Alvarez¡¯s projections, which include 39 homers, 113 RBIs and the second-best wRC+ (169) in MLB, are eye-popping but certainly not surprising. The left-handed slugger has been one of baseball¡¯s most dangerous hitters since his debut in 2019.

Athletics: Zack Gelof (2.4 WAR)
A second-round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, Gelof burst onto the scene a year ago with 14 homers, 14 steals and a 133 wRC+ over 69 games, which could set up the youngster to produce a 20/20 campaign -- Steamer projects him for 21 homers and 20 steals -- in 2024.

Mariners: Julio Rodr¨ªguez (5.6 WAR)
Seattle¡¯s superstar center fielder has recorded 5-plus WAR in each of his first two seasons. If Steamer¡¯s projections come to fruition, J-Rod would make it 3-for-3 and become the first player in AL/NL history to produce multiple 30/30 seasons before his age-24 campaign.

Rangers: Corey Seager (5.1 WAR)
The Rangers¡¯ decision to sign Seager to a 10-year, $325 million deal after the 2021 season paid off in a big way last year when the shortstop placed second in the AL MVP race and secured World Series MVP honors for the second time in his career while leading Texas to a championship. He¡¯s projected to top 30 homers for the third straight season with a 140 wRC+, the highest figure among shortstops.

NL EAST

Braves: Ronald Acu?a Jr. (7.4 WAR)
Acu?a¡¯s epic NL MVP Award-winning season saw the outfielder become the first player in MLB history to produce 40-plus homers and 70-plus steals, while slashing .337/.416/.596. What will he do for an encore? Steamer projects him to lead the Majors in WAR and batting average (.318) with the third-best wRC+ (162), plus 38 homers and 56 stolen bases. Projection systems are typically conservative, so even those incredible numbers might not fully capture what the 26-year-old could do in 2024.

Marlins: Jes¨²s Luzardo (3.3 WAR)
Luzardo¡¯s 2023 breakout was long anticipated, coming several years after he was one of baseball¡¯s top pitching prospects. With Sandy Alcantara sidelined after undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Marlins need Luzardo, who is projected for a 3.74 ERA and his second straight 200-strikeout season, to keep it up.

Mets: Francisco Lindor (4.3 WAR)
Lindor was one of baseball's most valuable players again in 2023, producing his first 30/30 season while continuing to supply excellent defense at shortstop. Steamer expects more of the same this season. He¡¯s projected for 27 homers and 21 steals, which would mark his fourth career 20/20 campaign.

Nationals: CJ Abrams (2.9 WAR)
After struggling to the tune of a 72 wRC+ as a rookie in 2022, Abrams made strides last season (90 wRC+) while also adding significant value with his legs. Steamer expects more progress from the speedy 23-year-old in 2024, projecting him for a 96 wRC+ to go with 17 homers and 35 stolen bases.

Phillies: Zack Wheeler (4.7 WAR)
Few pitchers have been better than Wheeler since he signed a five-year, $118 million deal with the Phillies after the 2019 season. Now entering the final year on his contract, he's projected to record a 3.54 ERA and 200 strikeouts with the second-most WAR among pitchers in 2024.

NL CENTRAL

Brewers: William Contreras (4.4 WAR)
Contreras is the only player in his entire division projected to record at least 4 WAR, which shows how valuable the young backstop has become in a short time. Acquired in the three-team trade that sent fellow catcher Sean Murphy from the A¡¯s to the Braves last offseason, Contreras seized the opportunity to be a regular starter behind the plate for the first time in 2023, excelling on both sides of the ball.

Cardinals: Nolan Arenado (3.4 WAR)
Last season marked the first time since 2014 (excluding the shortened 2020 campaign) that Arenado didn¡¯t reach the 30-homer or 100-RBI plateaus, as he battled a back injury down the stretch. Steamer thinks he¡¯ll get close to those marks in 2024, projecting the third baseman to produce 28 homers and 99 RBIs while ranking among the best defenders at his position (as usual).

Cubs: Nico Hoerner and Justin Steele (3.3 WAR)
After tying shortstop Dansby Swanson for the team lead in WAR a year ago, Steamer expects Steele to do the same with another defensively gifted middle infielder this time around. Steele is projected for a 3.69 ERA and 174 strikeouts over 181 innings, while Hoerner is projected for a .281 average, 12 homers and 31 steals.

Pirates: Oneil Cruz (3.0 WAR)
Remember Cruz? The shortstop had a promising rookie year in 2022, turning heads with his impressive stature (6-foot-7) and dynamic skill set, before missing most of last season with a fractured left ankle. Now fully recovered, the 25-year-old could be ready to take off in 2024, with Steamer projecting him for 25 homers, 21 steals and a 110 wRC+.

Reds: Matt McLain (3.3 WAR)
Elly De La Cruz came to the Majors with more fanfare, but it was actually McLain who was the Reds¡¯ most valuable rookie in 2023 (3.2 WAR). He¡¯s expected to be Cincinnati¡¯s most valuable player overall in the year ahead -- Steamer projects him to provide 24 homers and 18 steals with solid defense.

NL WEST

D-backs: Corbin Carroll (4.7 WAR)
Carroll is coming off one of the greatest rookie seasons in recent memory, becoming the first rookie to produce 25-plus homers and 50-plus steals before helping the D-backs win the National League pennant. Steamer expects an impressive follow-up campaign for the reigning NL Rookie of the Year, projecting him for 26 homers, 42 steals and a 126 wRC+.

Dodgers: Mookie Betts (6.1 WAR)
With Shohei Ohtani not providing any pitching value in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery last October, Betts gets the nod as the Dodgers¡¯ projected WAR leader in the eyes of Steamer. Now Los Angeles' regular second baseman, Betts ranks fourth in the Majors in projected WAR, to go with 33 homers, 15 steals and a 141 wRC+.

Giants: Logan Webb (4.1 WAR)
Webb, who finished second in the NL Cy Young Award voting behind Blake Snell after leading MLB in innings (216) and posting a 3.25 ERA last season, is one of two pitchers projected to cross the 200-inning threshold in 2024, with a 3.53 ERA to boot.

Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. (5.5 WAR)
After missing all of 2022 while recovering from injuries and serving a suspension, Tatis made a successful position switch from shortstop to right field in 2023, winning a Gold Glove Award as well as a Platinum Glove. Tatis¡¯ offensive production (113 wRC+), while solid, wasn¡¯t up to his usual standards, but Steamer expects improvement in 2024, projecting Tatis for 36 homers, 27 steals and a 139 wRC+.

Rockies: Nolan Jones (2.0 WAR)
Acquired from the Guardians in November 2022, Jones made quite an impact as a rookie last season despite spending nearly two months in the Minors to begin the year. The 25-year-old not only hit .297 with 20 homers and 20 steals over 106 games but also flashed MLB¡¯s best throwing arm while leading all outfielders with 19 assists. Steamer thinks Jones will be Colorado¡¯s best player in 2024, projecting him for 23 homers, 16 steals and a 106 wRC+.

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