Here are the Top 10 RHP prospects for 2024
Jonathan Mayo
@JonathanMayoAlways one of the deepest groups of prospects as we unveil the Top 100 list, this year is no different, even though there¡¯s been a ton of turnover.
Six of last year¡¯s preseason top 10 graduated to the big leagues during the 2023 season, starting with No. 1 right-hander Grayson Rodriguez. There are only two holdovers from last year¡¯s Top 10 -- Phillies prospects Andrew Painter and Mick Abel -- with Painter sort of suspended in Tommy John surgery limbo.
This group has been aided by the 2023 Draft, starting of course with the guy who sits atop it, and atop the Draft class, Paul Skenes. But he¡¯s not alone. There are three other top of the Draft picks in the top 10 in Rhett Lowder (No. 7 pick), Chase Dollander (No. 9) and Noble Meyer (No. 10), making this just the second time -- and first since 2012 (Trevor Bauer, Dylan Bundy, Gerrit Cole, Archie Bradley) -- that four players from the previous year's Draft have been on the preseason Top 10 RHP Prospects list.
The Top 10 (ETA)
1. Paul Skenes, Pirates (2024)
2. Jackson Jobe, Tigers (2025)
3. Cade Horton, Cubs (2024)
4. Andrew Painter, Phillies (2025)
5. Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers (2025)
6. Rhett Lowder, Reds (2024)
7. Mick Abel, Phillies (2024)
8. Chase Dollander, Rockies (2026)
9. Dylan Lesko, Padres (2026)
10. Noble Meyer, Marlins (2026)
Complete list ?
Top tools
Fastball: Skenes (80)
At LSU last year, Skenes averaged 98.6 mph with his fastball and regularly hit triple digits. His ability to command the pitch, along with a flat approach angle and carry, led to a 30 percent miss rate on his heater. He maintains it deep into starts and reaches the elite velos without much effort.
Curveball: Misiorowski, Abel, Lesko (55)
The scary thing is that Misiorowski¡¯s relatively newer curve might be his fourth best pitch, behind his fastball, slider and cutter, but he has such a good feel for spin, it¡¯s going to be a useful option for him. Abel has distinct breaking pitches as well and has stood out with his ability to spin the ball since high school. Lesko¡¯s upper-70s breaker will get more consistent the more he¡¯s on the mound post Tommy John surgery, and it registers high spin rates.
Slider: Skenes, Jobe, Horton, Misiorowski (70)
Four 70 sliders on this list! Skenes elicited an absurd 62 percent miss rate with this pitch at LSU last year, and it was voted as the best secondary offering of any pitching prospect in the recently conducted MLB Pipeline Executive Poll. Jobe¡¯s slider finished third in that voting, while Horton and Misiorowski also got multiple votes for their nasty breaking stuff.
Changeup: Lesko (70)
Pro hitters have yet to see the best Lesko has to offer here, and they better watch out. It was arguably the best of his Draft class, thrown with separation and two-plane movement. It¡¯s a pitch that can make hitters look silly, and he should continue to regain full feel for it with surgery in his rearview.
Control: Painter, Lowder (65)
Painter won¡¯t pitch in 2024 because of TJ surgery last summer, but in his huge 2022 season, he walked just 2.2 per nine while pitching across three levels. Lowder¡¯s feel for pitching is a big reason why he went No. 7 overall in last year¡¯s Draft and why many see him making a beeline to Cincinnati.
Superlatives
Highest ceiling: Skenes
He wasn¡¯t the No. 1 pick in the Draft for nothing, and the ¡°best college pitching prospect since Strasburg¡± talk is legit. He has frontline starter written all over him and Pirates fans should get a chance to see him sooner rather than later.
Highest floor: Lowder
Skenes could run all of these categories, but let¡¯s give someone else worthy a chance. Lowder¡¯s very good stuff to go along with his really advanced feel for pitching give the Reds a ton of confidence that he¡¯s going to be a big league starter, and soon.
Rookie of the Year Award candidate: Skenes
It¡¯s a question of when, not if, the big right-hander makes his big league debut this year. Enough executives thought he¡¯d be up soon enough to compete for ROY honors that he got multiple votes in the survey. If he logs enough innings, don¡¯t be surprised if he gets real Rookie of the Year votes at season¡¯s end.
Highest riser & humblest beginning: Misiorowski
While he did get $2.35 million to sign as a second-rounder, this is a group of first-round picks, and the fact that Misiorowski overcame injuries and was taken that high out of junior college is something both he and the Brewers deserve credit for. He wasn¡¯t in the Top 100 to start last year, beginning the season at No. 7 on the Brewers¡¯ Top 30 before pitching across three levels and turning in a dominant performance in the Futures Game
Most to prove: Lesko
Keep this spot warm for Painter next year, but Lesko has huge expectations coming into 2024. He threw his first 33 professional innings last year post-TJ, and the stuff was exciting even thought he was understandably rusty. The gloves could come off this season, and he really could take off.
Keep an eye on: Bubba Chandler
Chandler was a two-way player in high school (and at the start of his pro career), not to mention a talented enough QB to have played Division I football. From July on last year, including a one-start finish up in Double-A, the super-athletic righty posted a 2.33 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, .190 BAA and a 9.5 K/9 rate.