Twins hit reset button, ready for deep run

MINNEAPOLIS -- Nothing about this 2020 season has been typical.

So, why not take the opportunity to wipe the slate clean from the Twins' lack of playoff success in the last decade and rewrite the script? Minnesota's 16 straight playoff losses are but a figment of the past, replaced by this team that overcame injuries around the roster, the struggles of a season derailed by COVID-19 and a challenge from the surging White Sox to win consecutive division titles for the first time since 2009-10.

Heck, the Twins aren't even playing the Yankees first this season. A first-round matchup against the 29-31 Astros awaits instead in the Wild Card Series. At home, no less.

If any team can bring a long-awaited end to that inglorious chapter of franchise history, why not this team?

"We can¡¯t change it," team president Dave St. Peter said. "We can learn from it. We have to keep knocking on the door, right? Eventually, we¡¯re going to knock it down. I¡¯m optimistic this club has the ability to do that. ... Obviously, the history is the history. I¡¯m not sure it¡¯s this team¡¯s history."

The 2020 Twins set the World Series as their goal from the first day of Spring Training. That didn't change as the baseball world waited out a pandemic, it didn't change when the Twins lost six in a row to close out August and it certainly didn't change when Minnesota drew an experienced Houston roster in this upcoming three-game series.

What will it take for the Twins to finally win their first playoff series since 2002?

How do they advance out of the Wild Card Series?
The Twins' offense was expected to carry this team to the division title. Instead, this roster was defined by pitching and defense throughout a regular season riddled with close games. Much of that was due to injuries throughout the lineup, headlined by Josh Donaldson's absence for more than a month with a right calf strain. In fact, the Twins haven't had their first-choice starting lineup on the field since July 30.

The Bomba Squad could finally be whole once again come Tuesday, assuming Byron Buxton's concussion symptoms resolve as hoped and Donaldson's calf feels good enough for him to play. The talent has been on this roster all along, but it either hasn't been on the field or hasn't performed to its potential, leading to a 102 team wRC+ in the regular season, 13th in MLB.

But the signs of a breakthrough have been there. Donaldson has a .925 OPS since his Sept. 2 return from injury, including five homers, two doubles and 14 walks in 21 games. Since Buxton came off the IL on Sept. 1, he has a 1.022 OPS with eight homers. Luis Arraez returned from an IL stint by going 6-for-8 with four doubles in the final two games of the regular season.

Most encouraging of all is the fact that the Twins rank fourth in MLB with a .427 wOBA against fastballs in September after ranking 23rd in that metric in July and August, showing that their slowly healing lineup is doing damage to heaters in a manner that's more indicative of their success from 2019, when that was critical. The Twins can win close games, but the margin for error is much less in the playoffs -- even more so in a three-game series. A throwback to '19 from the lineup would help a lot.

What does the blueprint for a championship run look like?
The Twins' leg up on other clubs in their quest for their first World Series championship since 1991 lies in their considerable pitching depth in both the rotation and bullpen. Because the three-game Wild Card Series, five-game Division Series and seven-game Championship Series will all be contested without off-days between games, teams will no longer be able to rely on three starters and a handful of relievers for a playoff run.

That's where Minnesota's depth comes in.

The club has a top-flight Game 1 starter in Kenta Maeda, who led MLB in WHIP (0.75) during the regular season and allowed no more than three earned runs in each of his 11 regular-season starts. But they also have five other starting options -- Jos¨¦ Berr¨ªos, Michael Pineda, Jake Odorizzi, Rich Hill and Randy Dobnak -- that boast a mix of consistency, experience and upside behind Maeda. According to FanGraphs' WAR, the Twins' rotation ranked fifth in MLB in 2020.

That depth extends to the bullpen. Taylor Rogers, Sergio Romo and Tyler Duffey emerged as a tough back end down the stretch last season, and there's a deep stable of middle relievers ahead of them in Trevor May, veteran Tyler Clippard, rookie Cody Stashak and surprising waiver wire pickup Matt Wisler, who posted a 1.09 ERA with 34 strikeouts in 24 2/3 innings. Even the eighth and ninth relief options, Caleb Thielbar (2.25 ERA) and Jorge Alcala (2.63), have been competitive in close games. FanGraphs ranked this bullpen third in MLB in WAR.

Any deep playoff run in 2020 will test a pitching staff's depth. The Twins stand ready.

What is one reason for concern?
The back end of that bullpen has been leakier than the Twins would have hoped this season.

After establishing himself among the elite relievers of the game last season, Rogers got knocked around in 2020 to the tune of a 4.05 ERA, two blown saves and four losses in 21 appearances. Though his strikeout and walk numbers were in line with his rates from '19, he couldn't stop allowing hits. After opening the season with three perfect innings, Rogers allowed at least one hit in 15 of his final 18 outings to finish the campaign.

Romo's ERA also rose to 4.05 after he allowed two runs without recording an out in Sunday's regular-season finale, and though he was more consistent throughout the season, he allowed hits in five of his final six appearances to finish out the season.

If the Twins' offense continues to underperform and pushes the team into tight games, they need an effective Rogers in particular to lock things down. They haven't seen that version of him since July.