A look at Glasnow's future with the Rays

November 10th, 2023

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry¡¯s Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

ST. PETERSBURG -- When?Tyler Glasnow?signed a two-year extension with the Rays in August 2022, it effectively silenced any trade rumors that might have followed the big right-hander into the following offseason. The deal pushed back Glasnow¡¯s free agency by a year and left little doubt that he¡¯d be back with Tampa Bay this past season.

¡°The biggest thing for me,¡± Glasnow?said at the time, ¡°is the relief of knowing, like, I'm exactly where I want to be.¡±

How much longer will that be the case?

With the offseason underway, Glasnow is already being mentioned as a potential trade candidate, the kind of ace fans of pitching-needy teams can and will dream on. The reason is simple: He¡¯s due a franchise-record $25 million for 2024, his last season before reaching free agency, and he plays for the Rays.

Tampa Bay has never committed that much money to a player for one season. Glasnow's salary is a big reason the Rays¡¯ projected payroll for next season sits somewhere in the $120 million range, territory they have never before reached.

President of baseball operations?Erik Neander?said during the Rays¡¯ season-ending press conference that he was ¡°reasonably confident¡± they could drive up their payroll ¡°if we think that¡¯s the best path to winning a World Series.¡± If that¡¯s not the route they take, however, they¡¯ll likely have to part with higher-paid veterans.

They could trim salary here and there by dealing outfielder?Manuel Margot?and DH?Harold Ram¨ªrez, among others. But the quickest way to pare payroll would be trading Glasnow for younger cost-controlled talent.

Glasnow has made it no secret that he wants to stay with the Rays, from before he signed his extension to a?recent ¡°Foul Territory¡± appearance?when he said Tampa Bay was the ¡°No. 1 place I want to be.¡± (He even bought a house in Tampa.) But can the Rays build the kind of competitive roster they want with one player earning such a significant sum?

¡°It¡¯s all about the impact that a player provides -- measured, and a lot of other things you can¡¯t measure as well,¡± Neander told MLB.com¡¯s?Juan Toribio?earlier this week at the GM Meetings in Scottsdale, Ariz. ¡°Appreciate everything about Glas, including his affection for the organization and for being here. ¡­ It was a [two years for $30 million] extension; we¡¯ve carried two-for-30 deals before, and quite well. We¡¯ll see where it goes.

¡°In any given year, our team can look a little bit different come Opening Day from where it was when we wrapped the season prior. But really, really appreciate him. We¡¯re thankful to have him. We¡¯ll take it from here. He¡¯s a good one to have on your side. We know that.¡±

That is, essentially, the argument for keeping Glasnow. When he¡¯s healthy and effective, he¡¯s a legitimate top-of-the-rotation starter -- the kind of pitcher who¡¯d receive $25 million annually as a free agent without anybody thinking twice about it. That hasn¡¯t always shown up consistently due to injuries, but look no further to see what he¡¯s capable of than?his start in 2021?or the?stretch he had this summer.

The Rays need elite-level performance like that heading into next season, and it¡¯s worth noting they showed a willingness to pay the price for that kind of player with their contract offer to?Freddie Freeman?before the 2022 season. They know they¡¯ll be without All-Star ace?Shane McClanahan?all year after he underwent Tommy John surgery. Their rotation won¡¯t include?Jeffrey Springs?until at least midseason, and?Drew Rasmussen¡¯s return could come after that.

Aside from Glasnow, that leaves them with some combination of?Zach Eflin,?Aaron Civale,?Zack Littell, Taj Bradley?and perhaps a workload-limited?Shane Baz?to start the season, with little proven depth behind them.

For that reason, Neander noted at the GM Meetings that pitching could be a need for the Rays this winter. Obviously, they¡¯d have to add even more pitching if they trade away Glasnow.

¡°I think with some of the injuries we¡¯ve had, we¡¯ll have some players come back early. We¡¯ll have some arms come back midseason. Have to get a little bit creative in terms of how we piece that all together,¡± Neander told Toribio. ¡°Safe to say that adding pitching is always a good idea. This year¡¯s no exception.¡±

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