In contract year, Vlad's focus is 'trying to win every day'
Keegan Matheson
@KeeganMathesonDUNEDIN, Fla. -- Drip¡ Drip¡ Drip¡
Despite Vladimir Guerrero Jr.¡¯s wishes earlier in camp for his extension negotiations to not become a distraction, we just keep hearing about them. While Guerrero doesn¡¯t seem distracted in the least, this remains a story that is going to hang over the Blue Jays all season long, new oxygen feeding the fire in each city they travel to.
The Blue Jays¡¯ April travel schedule? New York, Boston and New York again. The headlines are coming.
Information leaks out. This is how it always has worked and how it always will work, but rarely does a public back-and-forth truly benefit the parties involved when the ultimate goal is to reach a long-term deal. Recent information made public has not come from the Blue Jays¡¯ front office, a group that¡¯s always been tight-lipped and kept a small circle on major contract negotiations, but everyone involved is still left to deal with this ongoing story in their own ways.
While Guerrero declined to speak with Toronto media in Dunedin Thursday morning about the negotiations, manager John Schneider did address what he¡¯s seen from his star first baseman. Schneider makes himself as available as any manager in baseball and has been the voice of the team on a laundry list of topics over the years -- which he does well -- and reiterated Thursday that Guerrero¡¯s focus is on the 2025 season. That¡¯s it, that¡¯s all.
¡°He¡¯s been good. I think the more people talk about it, the more he feels he has to talk about it,¡± Schneider said. ¡°In talking to him, he¡¯s really just focused on this. I know that some things may seem otherwise, but he¡¯s just focused on coming here and trying to win every day. I don¡¯t know what it¡¯s like to be in his shoes, but he¡¯s handled it really well.¡±
That¡¯s where things stand today, but let¡¯s reset the clock with a quick timeline of the story:
Dec. 22, 2024 -- Guerrero says in a Spanish-language interview with Abriendo El Podcast that the Blue Jays¡¯ latest offer to him was ¡°not even close¡± and that he would be setting a deadline of Feb. 18, the club¡¯s first full-squad workout in Dunedin, Fla.
Jan. 9, 2025 -- Guerrero and the Blue Jays settle on a $28.5 million salary for 2025, avoiding arbitration. This is the third-highest salary paid to an arbitration-eligible player in league history, behind only Juan Soto in ¡®24 ($31 million) and Shohei Ohtani the year prior ($30 million).
Feb. 18, 2025 -- After failing to agree to an extension, Guerrero says that the Blue Jays were not close and that ¡°... Now, they¡¯re going to have to compete with 29 more teams.¡±
March 6, 2025 -- In a Spanish-language interview with ESPN¡¯s Enrique Rojas, Guerrero says that his final counteroffer to the Blue Jays was for less than $600 million over 14 years.
March 11, 2025 -- The New York Post¡¯s Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman report that the Blue Jays offered Guerrero a deal for ¡°about $500 million,¡± but that deferrals lowered the present-day value to $400-450 million.
That brings us back to today. What we know is that Guerrero loves Toronto, loves Canada and is genuinely attracted to the idea of building a legacy in one city with one team. That¡¯s all great to hear, but in the end, it will act as little more than a tiebreaker. If we¡¯re still having this discussion in December and the Blue Jays are bidding against multiple teams for Guerrero, that will be an advantage, but not a major one.
We also have a better feel for both sides¡¯ numbers at this point, but framing this as a simple gap of something close to a flat $50 million is too rudimentary. There are deferrals involved, bonuses, escalators and countless other factors.
It¡¯s more complicated, and remember Vladdy¡¯s answer when he was asked on Feb. 18 if the Blue Jays¡¯ offer was close: ¡°No.¡±
Where can this go from here, though? Given Guerrero¡¯s current ask, what would he have to do in 2025 to earn even more money than that in free agency? An MVP season might be the starting point, which is a high bar.
From the Blue Jays¡¯ side of this, there¡¯s always been a path by which they let Guerrero reach free agency and allow the market itself to play a role. There¡¯s risk to that, but the risk isn¡¯t all on the Blue Jays¡¯ side of the table.
Until then? Drip¡ Drip¡ Drip¡