In a Vlad Jr. free agency frenzy, who are the likely suitors and frontrunners?

On Tuesday, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays confirmed that the two sides were unable to come to an agreement on a contract extension, which means the slugging infielder will be free to test the market next offseason.

In this roundtable, MLB.com reporters discuss what¡¯s next for Guerrero and the Jays, and who might be the top suitors when free agency opens after the conclusion of the World Series.

We¡¯ve been given a preview of next winter¡¯s Hot Stove season, even before the current one is effectively over. Vlad Guerrero Jr. has indicated that the Blue Jays are now ¡°going to have to compete with 29 more teams¡± when he hits free agency after this season. So it¡¯s game on. Our way-too-early prognostication tells us the Jays, Yankees and Mets are logical front-runners. What makes each of them a reasonable landing spot?

Keegan Matheson, Blue Jays beat reporter: Vladdy has said for years now that he wants to play his entire career with the Blue Jays, which he reiterated multiple times on Tuesday. The money needs to make sense first and foremost, but this is one situation where there will be no conversations about the border or ¡°coming to Canada.¡± Guerrero loves the city and wants to stay there, so this should come down to money alone.

• Path remains open for Vladdy to stay, despite lack of deal

Bryan Hoch, Yankees beat reporter: Think of the great first basemen in Yankees history -- names like Lou Gehrig, Don Mattingly, Tino Martinez. Now consider the Yankees went to the World Series in 2024 with almost no production from that position; the group¡¯s .602 OPS was the lowest in baseball, by far. Anthony Rizzo has given way to Paul Goldschmidt, who is looking for a bounce-back season at age 37. Maybe Goldschmidt has more thump in the tank, but he¡¯s on a one-year contract and obviously not a long-term answer. Vlad Jr. can bring star power and star production, and as a bonus, he¡¯s already been battle-tested in the AL East.

Anthony DiComo, Mets beat reporter: Pete Alonso sure seems like a man intent on opting out of his $54 million agreement after this season, going as far as to call that deal ¡°a bridge thing just to get to the next contract.¡± Considering how reserved the Mets were in pursuing Alonso this winter, it¡¯s not hard to imagine a world in which they simply accept Alonso¡¯s decision and move on themselves. That would, of course, leave a Guerrero-sized hole at first base. It¡¯s a match that makes a lot of sense, and no one doubts Steve Cohen¡¯s willingness to spend up for players he desires. He spent a good while on Tuesday talking openly about his ability to continue doing so.

Mark Feinsand, senior national reporter: If there is one thing we have learned, it¡¯s that the Mets are going to be in play for any free agent that piques their interest. With Alonso potentially opting out of his contract after this season, there could be an opening at first, where Vladdy would pair nicely in the lineup with Juan Soto. That said, I don¡¯t expect the Blue Jays to go quietly in their pursuit of re-signing Vladdy, who has been the face of the franchise since he made his debut. Toronto needs to bring him back, though it remains to be seen whether the Blue Jays will pay what it takes to do so.

To me, it¡¯s shaping up to be a two-horse race for his services. The big question will be how much either of those teams -- or any other club, for that matter -- will be willing to pay. Based on what we¡¯ve seen from the first-base market in recent years, I would be shocked if he gets anything close to $500 million despite his age. Even $400 million seems like a reach, but if he turned down $350 million from Toronto as has been reported, he and his agents must feel pretty confident. The days of the $200-275 million contracts for first basemen like Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder feel like an eternity ago. First basemen have become baseball¡¯s answer to running backs in the NFL; teams simply don¡¯t want to overspend for the position. If Vladdy gets more than $400 million, it will show you what teams truly think of his talents at the plate.

Assuming Alonso tests free agency again next year, would the Mets figure to be the favorites to sign Vlad? Would Alonso¡¯s status even matter when it comes to getting a mid-20s star to pair with Juan Soto?

Matheson: The Blue Jays are spending more than they ever have and will have most of their large contracts coming off the books in the next two years, so the money shouldn¡¯t be a problem, especially given the numbers they floated to both Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto. The Mets are a good example to hold the Blue Jays up against, though. We¡¯ll need to see if the Blue Jays are willing to make that final push at the end of this, which is more based on emotion than their data and valuations. The Mets won¡¯t have a problem doing that. Will the Blue Jays?

Hoch: The Yankees will have money coming off the books if they choose to pursue a player like Vlad Jr., or ¨C as has been reported ¨C they might focus their attention on Japanese first baseman Munetaka Murakami. Goldschmidt ($12.5 million), Devin Williams ($8.5 million) and Trent Grisham ($5 million) are all free agents, and Marcus Stroman ($18 million) could be too. I¡¯ve got to say: after attempting to go toe-to-toe with Cohen¡¯s Mets for Soto, I don¡¯t sense the Yankees would be all that enthusiastic about engaging in another bidding war.

DiComo: I don¡¯t know if I¡¯d call them the favorites, only because Cohen and -- especially -- president of baseball operations David Stearns prefer shorter contracts. Although those two have spent liberally since they¡¯ve been together, they¡¯ve only doled out one deal of more than three years, and that was for a generational talent in Juan Soto. Cohen and Stearns don¡¯t want to make it a habit.

That said, they¡¯ve spent aggressively in areas they feel they need to upgrade, and first base will certainly qualify if Alonso opts out. It¡¯s a long way of saying the Mets won¡¯t be outbid if they truly want the player, but it¡¯s not clear at this juncture how much they want the player.

Feinsand: Tony said the two magic words: generational talent. Vladdy is that type of hitter, and just as we saw with Soto this winter, stud free agents at the age of 26 don¡¯t come around very often. If the Mets want him, I find it hard to believe that they will be outbid.

How realistic are the Blue Jays¡¯ chances to sign Vlad in free agency?

Matheson: The Blue Jays are stuck hoping this plays out just like Aaron Judge and the Yankees now, but that¡¯s a dangerous game. Beyond that, Toronto will have to hope that the market itself moves Guerrero¡¯s number back in their direction. So much can change over the next nine months, but Guerrero said that he and the organization weren¡¯t close at this point.

Hoch: Keegan touched on it there; as a refresher, Judge left money on the table to continue his career with the Yankees, showing loyalty to the franchise that drafted and developed him. But Judge also felt it was important to get to free agency -- he wanted to experience that and enjoyed being wined and dined by teams like the Giants and Padres. I believe Judge when he says that, as he walked out of the clubhouse after the last game of the 2022 ALCS, he really wasn¡¯t sure if he¡¯d be coming back. He needed that chance to look over to the other side of the fence to realize that -- for him -- the grass might not be greener.

DiComo: Look, familiarity is important. We saw it with Alonso, who wound up re-signing despite the fact that the Mets never offered him the type of sky-high deal he initially sought. Now, Guerrero may not feel the same way about Toronto as Alonso did about New York, but there¡¯s something to be said for the idea of becoming an all-time franchise great. Alonso¡¯s eyes lit up this week when asked about pursuing the Mets¡¯ all-time home run record, which he should reach this season. Guerrero will have a chance to do the same in Toronto if he sticks around long-term.

Feinsand: Vladdy has said his primary goal is to win a World Series and give his ring to his Hall of Fame father, who never had the chance to win one. Is Toronto the place for that to happen? I wonder if Vladdy will be influenced at all by the fact that the Jays have made strong plays for guys like Ohtani and Soto, only to come up short. Does he believe more players will want to come to Toronto to help him achieve his goal? Or will another team -- the Mets or Yankees, for instance -- offer him a better opportunity to win that ring? I don¡¯t know if it¡¯s as much about being comfortable and liking Toronto as it is identifying the spot he believes gives him the best chance to win. Oh, and which team is going to give him the biggest bag of money.

Odds on a Vlad trade this summer? If the Jays are far out of contention at the deadline, do they deal him?

Matheson: They don¡¯t want to ¡­ but if they¡¯re out of contention, they¡¯ll have to. Losing Guerrero at any point means that the Blue Jays will need to find their next version of him to build around, and there¡¯s no sure bet in the farm system right now. If the point comes when dealing Guerrero could kickstart their future, they must consider it seriously.

DiComo: At some point, pragmatism trumps all. If the Blue Jays aren¡¯t in contention and don¡¯t feel like they¡¯ll be the favorites to re-sign Guerrero in free agency, they¡¯ll have to consider trading him. But the return would need to be clearly superior to the Draft pick compensation they¡¯d receive in return from extending him a qualifying offer next offseason.

Feinsand: It¡¯s difficult to believe the Blue Jays won¡¯t trade him if their season is going off the rails. As a rental, he won¡¯t command the type of return Soto did -- Soto had 2 1/2 years left when he went to the Padres and a full season remaining when he went to the Yankees -- but the return will definitely be more than the comp pick Toronto would get if he walked as a free agent. I think we¡¯ll know a lot about Toronto¡¯s hope to re-sign him based on whether he gets traded. The Jays know what kind of money he¡¯s looking for, and if they have no intention of giving it to him -- and their postseason hopes seem faint -- he¡¯ll be playing somewhere else by August.

It¡¯s clear that the two top free agents in next year¡¯s class will be Guerrero and Kyle Tucker. Who do you think will be the more pursued player next winter?

Matheson: Vladdy will be younger with more name value, but position value will matter. I still expect Guerrero to be the star of free agency. He¡¯s such a recognizable face around the game, and after hearing him speak Tuesday, I expect him to put up a monster season in 2025.

Hoch: I could easily see a situation where Vladdy lands the biggest contract, but Tucker is the one generating the most crowded field. Once it becomes clear that Vladdy and his demands seem to be heading into a certain stratosphere, all negotiations are going to wind up at the high-limits tables.

DiComo: You can easily make an argument that Tucker is the better player, but I agree with Keegan here -- Guerrero¡¯s star power and marketing value make him such a unique draw. It¡¯s close enough that 2025 on-field results could make the difference. More teams may be involved in the Tucker sweepstakes simply because he¡¯s an outfielder, but I suspect Guerrero will snag the larger deal, largely because of his age and marketability.

Feinsand: Tucker will draw more interest based on his position and overall game, but Vladdy will land the biggest contract of the offseason. The fact that his current team could be desperate to bring him back can¡¯t be discounted, especially since the Jays have found themselves on the short end of so many high-profile free-agent pursuits the past two years.