Drawing up the Padres' potential lineup

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell's Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

It's March. The Padres play meaningful baseball this month. Feels like as good a time as ever to start piecing together a starting lineup.

I¡¯ve said it in this space before: We probably spend too much time worrying about lineup construction. In the end, it doesn¡¯t matter much. But that doesn¡¯t make it any less fun to talk (or write) about.

¡°I love the fact we have the ability to have conversations about our lineup and can have fun with it sometimes,¡± manager Mike Shildt said recently. ¡°I really enjoy it, because it means we have options. There¡¯s really nothing worse from my seat than to be like: ¡®Wow, can¡¯t we find somebody to hit here? And who¡¯s going to hit there?¡¯ As opposed to: ¡®Man, there¡¯s a lot of options.¡¯¡±

Indeed, the Padres have options. Their lineup might feature eight All-Stars and five multi-time All-Stars. It¡¯s finely balanced between lefties and righties. Let¡¯s put it all together.

Where does Merrill hit?

This feels like the biggest question coming into the season. Jackson Merrill will almost certainly move up in the lineup after spending most of last season hitting sixth or seventh, before ascending to the No. 5 spot for the stretch run. There¡¯s a vacancy near the top, following Jurickson Profar¡¯s departure.

Luis Arraez has entrenched himself in the leadoff spot. Fernando Tatis Jr. seemed comfortable hitting behind him. Manny Machado has obviously thrived in both the third and fourth spots.

Merrill would seem to be a nice left-handed complement to Machado. Their skill sets are similar. They mash, and they don't walk much. Seems like a solid 3-4 partnership, whatever the order. Predictably, Merrill says he's not concerned where he bats in the lineup.

¡°I just go up there and hit,¡± Merrill said. ¡°I think it¡¯s better for me not to make it any different. Just hit the same way I have been. If I¡¯m in the 3-hole [between Tatis and Machado], I¡¯ll get more pitches to hit. I know that.¡±

The left-right balance

A year ago, Merrill was a Minor Leaguer and Arraez was a Marlin. The Padres' lack of balance was stark, with Jake Cronenworth the only real lefty threat (though most of their righties fare just fine against right-handed pitching).

There are no such concerns about lineup imbalance this year. The Padres' six regulars are split evenly left and right -- Arraez, Merrill and Cronenworth from the left side, Tatis, Machado and Xander Bogaerts from the right side.

They're going to start a righty hitter at catcher. But in the other two spots -- left field and DH -- there¡¯s a good chance the Padres rotate. Jason Heyward and Connor Joe could platoon in left field, and the race for the available bench spots features a solid left/right blend.

¡°At a very basic standpoint, it doesn¡¯t allow a lot of favorable matchups from the other side,¡± Shildt said. ¡°¡­ It creates problems for other teams. Which is why we¡¯re here.¡±

A projection vs. righties:

1. Arraez, 1B
2. Tatis, RF
3. Merrill, CF
4. Machado, 3B
5. Cronenworth, 2B
6. Bogaerts, SS
7. Heyward, LF
8. Gavin Sheets, DH (or Tirso Ornelas, or another LHH)
9. Elias D¨ªaz, C

This lineup rotates left-right all the way through, with the exception of the lefties doubling up in the seventh and eighth spots. (In a game, there¡¯s no question Shildt would dip into his bench for a pinch-hitter there.)

The race for the lefty half of that DH platoon is an interesting one. Sheets has struggled early, and Ornelas, the team¡¯s No. 18 prospect, is raking. Perhaps there¡¯s still time for the switch-hitting Yonathan Perlaza to throw himself in the mix.

In any case, don¡¯t count on this being the Opening Day lineup, because the Padres will almost certainly face a lefty (Atlanta¡¯s Chris Sale) on Opening Day.

A projection vs. lefties:

1. Arraez, 1B
2. Tatis, RF
3. Machado, 3B
4. Merrill, CF
5. Bogaerts, SS
6. Yuli Gurriel, DH (or Eguy Rosario, or another RHH)
7. Cronenworth, 2B
8. Joe, LF
9. D¨ªaz, C

I¡¯m hesitant to change much from the versus-right lineup. Last year, Shildt showed a penchant for sticking to a set formula at the top. That said, flipping Machado and Merrill makes sense. It might get you into the bullpen earlier. At the very least, it means an extra at-bat for Machado against a lefty pitcher.

There¡¯s a nice balance to this lineup as well -- left-right-right all the way through, combatting the three-batter minimum for relievers. (That¡¯s part of the reason Cronenworth drops to seventh, while also factoring his struggles against left-handed pitching last season.)

¡°We really are set for anyone, with lefties and righties,¡± Merrill said. ¡°Because our lineup is built to [be balanced]. There¡¯s not going to be a spot where we¡¯re screwed because we have three lefties in a row, three righties in a row. It helps for sure.

¡°But the other thing is: I¡¯m confident our righties can hit righties and our lefties can hit lefties. It doesn¡¯t matter to us.¡±