Mike Petriello, Sarah Langs, and Anthony Castrovince got together on Slack to discuss the Yankees¡¯ somewhat surprising decision to start rookie Deivi Garc¨ªa in Game 2 of the ALDS against the Rays. This conversation took place during Game 1 action, which the Yankees would go on to win, 9-3, to take a 1-0 series lead.
Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello): Six weeks ago, 21-year-old Deivi Garc¨ªa hadn¡¯t yet made his Major League debut and hadn¡¯t pitched in a competitive professional game in nearly a year. On Tuesday night, he¡¯ll become the youngest pitcher in franchise history to start a postseason game when he takes the ball for Game 2 of the ALDS against the Rays.
By handing the ball to Garc¨ªa, who had a 4.98 ERA across six late-season big league starts this year, Aaron Boone is bypassing Masahiro Tanaka (who is expected to start in Game 3) as well as lefties J.A. Happ and Jordan Montgomery. He also made this call before Game 1, therefore not knowing if he¡¯d be asking Garc¨ªa to protect a 1-0 lead or keep an 0-1 hole from turning into an 0-2 deficit.
This has the potential to be a defining choice of Boone¡¯s Yankee tenure, to say nothing about what it means for the particulars of the 2020 postseason. Sarah, Anthony ¡ let¡¯s start with the simple temperature check. Good idea? Bad? Why?
Anthony Castrovince (@castrovince): I'll let you know after Game 1. (Just kidding.)
I think it makes sense in this unusual format. With no off-days within the round, a team has to be extra tactical with its bullpen and avoid going too hard on its best relief arms. The decision was made with the expectation that the Yankees would get length from Gerrit Cole in Game 1 (Ed.: he would go six innings). There is reason to suspect the Yanks can get length from Masahiro Tanaka in Game 3 (he's averaged 5.6 innings per outing in nine previous postseason starts), and his experience would make him trustworthy if that's an elimination scenario. In-between, you have a likely rested bullpen at the ready to back up the young kid in Game 2.
Sarah Langs (SlangsOnSports): I like the idea in this unique postseason, given that these teams saw each other so much, proportionally, in the regular season. Garc¨ªa did not face the Rays, and that lack of familiarity could be enough to keep the Rays off balance, even for just the first two to four innings or so -- however long he can give them.
Petriello: I think it makes sense that you might want to split up Cole and Tanaka, but I'm wondering also how much Boone just wants to keep Happ away from the Rays for as long as he can. While it is true that Happ was pretty good down the stretch -- six earned runs over his last four starts -- he's also a lefty who throws a fastball (four-seamer or sinker) two-thirds of the time. Guess what the Rays mash? Lefty fastballs. Their .380 wOBA against lefty fastballs is baseball's third best.
But maybe we're getting too cute here. Maybe that means you want to put Happ in the best possible situation to succeed, so ¡ Garc¨ªa as an "opener" of sorts, then Happ (or Montgomery?) We saw the Astros do a piggy-back version of pitching with great success in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series vs. the Twins, and the Rays have so many platoon situations it could really play tricks with Kevin Cash's lineups. Or am I just wishcasting what I'd like to see?
Castrovince: 'Tis the season for witchcrafting and wishcasting. I think burning one of your four best starters as an "opener" in a series that could be five games in five days is dangerous. I would suspect the Yanks want to ride Garc¨ªa as far as they possibly can. Having said that, you do bring up an intriguing scenario of forcing the Rays into a midgame "line shift" after Garc¨ªa comes out. We can expect them to go with a left-handed-heavy lineup against Garc¨ªa. If you bring in Montgomery or Happ, now they go right-handed-heavy with their pinch-hitters, and that might set up better for the right-handed Adam Ottavino, who (shameless self-promotion) I identified as the Yankees' reliever who could swing this series in the late innings.
Petriello: That's a good point re: Ottavino. I suppose the other thing to keep in mind is, while you'd ideally prefer not to have to ask Garc¨ªa to hold the line down 0-1 in Game 2, you really don't want to have to ask him to take the mound if you're down 0-2 in an elimination Game 3, should things get that far. So maybe it's that line of thinking ... maybe you just sort of work backwards. Like, who do you want on the mound in Game 2? For me, probably Tanaka, but not by a lot. Who do you want on the mound in Game 3, not knowing if you're down 0-2? Almost certainly Tanaka. So take that angle, and then throw in the benefit we talked about above of splitting the two most reliable starters for bullpen purposes, and ... yeah, I get it.
Castrovince: Yep. Sarah hit the nail on the head in terms of the lack of familiarity and how that could be an asset here. We have so much analytical data and video that hitters can study. We even have a growing use of virtual reality for pregame preparation. But ultimately, until you've stood in against a guy, you don't know him. And with the way teams have demonstrated their trust in their young personnel and, well, 2020 being 2020, I don't rate Garc¨ªa starting this game as all that major a surprise, to be honest.
Langs: Certainly, talent over experience, especially here! And we¡¯ve already seen a lot of rookie starters thriving in October, with lack of familiarity presumably a factor. Look at what Ian Anderson did for the Braves in the Wild Card Series (6 IP, 9 K¡¯s in Game 2) against a Reds team that had never faced him before, not to mention how Miami¡¯s Sixto S¨¢nchez worked out of trouble in the Game 2 clincher against the Cubs in his first ever outing against Chicago.
And remember, it¡¯s unlikely the Yankees will be asking Garc¨ªa to get more than, say, 15 outs, tops. Rays hitters had a .756 OPS the first time facing starters in games this year, and a .754 mark the second time through. That number went up to .938 the third time through. When you add in the fact that the first time facing that pitcher is going to be the first time facing this pitcher ever, the Yankees seem set up to get through at least the first two times through the Rays¡¯ order here, and then go from there.
And it seems better to take that chance and experiment earlier in the series than later, as you get closer to potential clinches, on either side.
Castrovince: We seem to agree that the Garc¨ªa move is defensible. But just remember: If it doesn't work, we were all totally against it!
Petriello: OK, so: Cole is going in Game 1, right now. Garc¨ªa in Game 2. Tanaka in Game 3.
Let's assume no one sweeps and the series continues. Cole would likely be asked to go on three days¡¯ rest in Game 5, and even though the history of asking starters to do that isn't exactly great, this is why he's here, and they're not going to let the season end with him on the sidelines. So how do you handle Game 4? I suppose the answer to that is "see who's available after Games 2 and 3," but let's say the bullpen isn't totally worn out. Do you start Happ (or Montgomery) and pray that lefty fastballs don't get mashed into the Gaslamp Quarter? Or is that a full-speed-ahead-let's-2020-bullpen-this-one?
Castrovince: I totally understand the stats you presented earlier about Happ and that this is a sub-optimal assignment for him. But if the Yankees have a weakness, it's the bullpen, and the thought of actively counting on it for 27 outs would concern me. It seems extremely boring and extremely NOT 2020 to suggest that a team should just use its best available starter (assuming he's still rested and available after Games 1-3) and hope for the best. But that's what I would do with Happ. I wouldn't want to overtax the 'pen, in the event that Cole can't give you the usual length on short rest in Game 5.
Langs: I agree there. I would love to say, let¡¯s go full-on 2020 and suggest a bullpen game -- which was so far-fetched for the Yankees prior to 2019, when they started Chad Green as an ¡°opener¡± of sorts in Game 6 of the ALCS. But Cole has literally never pitched on fewer than four days¡¯ rest in his career, and even though this is absolutely what you get him for, it¡¯s hard to know what sort of length you¡¯ll get out of him in a potential Game 5. So any possibility of saving the bullpen by starting a traditional starter seems like a risk you have to take -- even with the potential for lefty fastball mashing.
Petriello: I'm glad you're here, Sarah, because I was quickly trying to figure out if Cole had ever started on three-days rest before and decided it was too tough to do during a live chat, and then you had that ready to go right there.
So it sounds like: we're all in agreement that the Garc¨ªa move is a solid enough one. You each think that you have to hope for the best with Happ in a potential Game 4, so as to not ask too much of Cole in Game 5.
What worries me, I think, is that I agree with each of you. That's the surest sign that the Yankees are either doing exactly the thing that they should do ... or that we're missing something obvious. Let's go with the first premise. Definitely that one.