Kikuchi, Blue Jays feeling weight of approaching Trade Deadline

July 4th, 2024

TORONTO -- This could be an interesting, uncomfortable month for .

As the clock ticks louder on the Blue Jays¡¯ season, which took another step in the wrong direction with Wednesday¡¯s 9-2 loss to the Astros at Rogers Centre, you¡¯re going to hear Kikuchi¡¯s name more and more.

The Blue Jays are 39-47, eight games out of the final Wild Card spot with only 21 games between now and the July 30 Trade Deadline. You can do the math.

¡°It¡¯s probably a difficult time for all of us,¡± Kikuchi said through interpreter Yusuke Oshima. ¡°Not just the position players, but myself included. I¡¯m going out there with mixed feelings. You just don¡¯t know what¡¯s going to happen. It¡¯s a difficult time right now.¡±

There¡¯s a human element to these days. Kikuchi, like so many of these Blue Jays, has embraced life in the city of Toronto with his family.

¡°We came in with the mentality that we were aiming to get to the World Series and win the World Series,¡± Kikuchi said. ¡°Obviously, it¡¯s tough thinking about that. All we can do is prepare and be ready every game that we¡¯re out there.¡±

Right now, Kikuchi¡¯s value stands above that of the Blue Jays¡¯ other pending free agents. This is where it¡¯s important to consider how the other club involved in any potential deal would be looking at the players the Blue Jays could make available.

Danny Jansen is a power-hitting catcher who is deeply important to this organization -- and should still be an offseason priority -- but he¡¯s hit .129 with a .403 OPS and zero home runs since the beginning of June. Yimi Garc¨ªa has been so impressive with his 2.57 ERA, but is still working his way back from an elbow injury and will need to reestablish himself quickly. Trevor Richards (2.44 ERA) is quietly an interesting option for teams needing middle relief.

Then we get to Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier, who could fill roles on a postseason contender, but neither would represent a significant move.

If the Blue Jays were to consider moving players with team control beyond 2025 -- we¡¯re talking Chris Bassitt, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., even Chad Green -- that could open up a completely different realm of possibilities. That feels unlikely, though, leaving Kikuchi as this organization¡¯s best shot at getting a legitimate prospect in return if they choose to sell at this Deadline.

On Wednesday, our Mark Feinsand listed the Guardians, Padres, Twins, Astros, Cardinals, Mets, Giants and D-backs among the clubs likely looking for rotation help. Injuries and powerhouses pushing all in could add to that list over the next four weeks.

We just saw this market lurch to life, too. Early Wednesday the Rays, who have a better record than the Blue Jays, traded Aaron Civale to the Brewers for their No. 21 prospect, Gregory Barrios. Civale is younger than Kikuchi at 29 and has an additional year of team control in 2025, but owns a 5.07 ERA this season. Kikuchi, even as a rental, could net the Blue Jays a legitimate prospect at the Deadline if he¡¯s able to string a few more solid starts together.

Stocking up on young prospects at the lower levels is nice, but Toronto¡¯s farm system needs help closer to the top, not in the middle. By 2026, this organization needs a new wave of talent to come crashing upon the shore. It¡¯s not there right now, at least not in bunches.

Kikuchi¡¯s start Wednesday was solid, a fine enough outing to build off of after allowing 13 earned runs over 11 innings in his last three outings. This can just as easily go in the wrong direction again, but if Kikuchi can put together a few more outings like this -- two runs allowed over 5 2/3 innings with five strikeouts -- there will be teams eager to take a shot on a left-handed starter who topped out at 98.5 mph tonight.

That¡¯s the world the rest of us get to live in, playing fantasy GM. Unless the Blue Jays go on an incredible run through the month of July, the shadow of these conversations will continue to stretch further over games. It¡¯s not as fun to be on this side of the equation.

The players experience this differently. Like Kikuchi says, these are difficult days, and they don¡¯t typically get any easier as the Trade Deadline nears.

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