A full appreciation of Kiermaier's insane grab

This browser does not support the video element.

It took exactly one pitch into the Rays' 2018 season for Kevin Kiermaier to make a fantastic defensive play, which is impressive even by his lofty standards. For all the praise we heap onto Byron Buxton, Kiermaier still has a pretty strong case to make to be considered the best defensive outfielder in baseball.
When Kiermaier ran across what seemed like half of Florida -- he started 129 feet away from the ball's projected landing point, and he actually covered 132 feet, which is a pretty good route -- in 6.6 seconds to rob Mookie Betts, he didn't just serve notice that he's still a stud in the field. By making his fantastic grab at the Tropicana Field wall so early in the game, he also helped us show off the latest update to Catch Probability before we'd even really announced it.
When we introduced Catch Probability last season, we touted it as a Statcast™ outfield range metric based on distance, time and direction, which could tell us how often similar opportunities were made. We also noted that "it doesn't yet account for the extra difficulty of catches at or over the wall, which is planned for 2018." It was a good start, but we knew improvement was necessary.
Well, it is 2018 now, so let's carry through on that promise: Catch Probability has now been updated to account for the difficulty of the wall. This makes the data on Kiermaier's play -- and those like it -- even more impressive. Instead of it being a 49 percent Catch Probability, as it would have been last year, it's now considered a six percent Catch Probability, making it one of the most difficult plays a fielder can make. When presented with similar opportunities since 2015, other outfielders have been unable to make that play more than 90 percent of the time.
As you can imagine, this is going to make for a lot of fun highlights of outfielders smashing into walls. Remember when Christian Yelich slammed face-first into the fence in Seattle last year? He earned more than just a busted lip; he gained a measure of revenge on batter Jarrod Dyson, who had robbed Yelich in similar fashion in 2016.

This browser does not support the video element.

At the time, the Statcast™ metrics looked at it as a good play, giving it a 46 percent Catch Probability based on the distance, time and direction of the opportunity presented to Yelich. That's a "Four Star Play," out of five, which is good; that's saying that the play is made slightly less than half the time.
Now, it's an elite five percent play, meaning outfielders just about never get there. (It's not "zero percent," because sometimes they do; check out this similar Jake Marisnick play from 2016.)
It's a lot more satisfying to say that a play like that is almost never made, rather than say it is made half the time.
How it works
Consider this a two-step process. First, "wall balls" are considered to be any ball that was projected to land within eight feet of the wall (outfield walls only, not side walls) and no more than eight feet high on the wall, so as to not penalize players in Boston staring at a double clanging off the Green Monster 25 feet off the ground.
Second, all wall balls are compared only to themselves, rather than to all plays. This has the side effect of removing these plays from the larger non-wall sample.
What that does is to take a play that was already considered to be very good and help give it the credit it deserves. When Kevin Pillar ran 110 feet to rob Rubén Tejada and slam into the fence last year, it was given a 41 percent Catch Probability, his third-best catch of the year. Now, it's a two percent catch, one of the best from anyone all year.

This browser does not support the video element.

While these are some extreme examples, as it turns out, there are relatively few of these plays. We tracked nearly 33,000 catches in 2017, and just under 2,000 -- or approximately six percent -- counted as "wall balls." Of those, only 64 (.001 percent) moved the needle by 40 points of Catch Probability. That's enough to want to account for them, but still only a small fraction of overall outfield plays.
They do, however, make for fun viewing. Giancarlo Stanton's late-season run of 96 feet in 5.4 seconds into the wall in Colorado gave him a 55 percent Catch Probability at the time. Now it's 11 percent. He does not, however, get extra credit for managing to not squish Yelich along the way.

This browser does not support the video element.

As another example, Jackie Bradley Jr.'s robbery of Yunel Escobar last summer, will go from 69 percent to 24 percent, making it one of his best catches of the year. 

This browser does not support the video element.

Unsurprisingly, Bradley was one of two Boston fielders in the top five of wall-ball catches made in 2017. Sure, it's about skill, as you can see by the name at the top, but it's also about opportunity and the ballpark you call home.
2017 Wall Ball Catch Leaders

  1. Lorenzo Cain, 24
  2. Bradley Jr., 21
  3. Buxton, 20
  4. Andrew Benintendi, 19
  5. Marcell Ozuna, 18
    This update will work very nicely for plays where a fielder is running at high speed into the wall, as in the examples you've seen. For plays where it's less about range than timing -- like when Bradley robbed Aaron Judgeof a home run by getting to a point, stopping and jumping -- the impact will be far less.
    Seasonal impact
    Because Catch Probability fuels our season-long outfield range metric, Outs Above Average, changes to individual plays will have some slight effects on the leaderboards, as well.
    As you'd expect, Buxton does well here, gaining +4 outs, pushing him from +25 OAA, which was already the best in baseball, to +29. That's in part thanks to plays like this robbery of Carlos Santana, which drops from 52 percent to just seven percent under the new methodology.

This browser does not support the video element.

Seven others, including Judge, Cain, Billy Hamilton and Ender Inciarte gain +3 OAA. Andrew McCutchen loses 3 OAA, dropping from 0 to -3. An overwhelming majority of players either didn't move at all, or did by only an out or two.
As we said above, there really aren't that many of these types of plays, all things considered. The ones that do exist really stand out, however, making all the best highlight reels. Now, Statcast™ will appropriately credit them from a metric perspective, as well.

More from MLB.com

seductrice.net
universo-virtual.com
buytrendz.net
thisforall.net
benchpressgains.com
qthzb.com
mindhunter9.com
dwjqp1.com
secure-signup.net
ahaayy.com
tressesindia.com
puresybian.com
krpano-chs.com
cre8workshop.com
hdkino.org
peixun021.com
qz786.com
utahperformingartscenter.org
worldqrmconference.com
shangyuwh.com
eejssdfsdfdfjsd.com
playminecraftfreeonline.com
trekvietnamtour.com
your-business-articles.com
essaywritingservice10.com
hindusamaaj.com
joggingvideo.com
wandercoups.com
wormblaster.net
tongchengchuyange0004.com
internetknowing.com
breachurch.com
peachesnginburlesque.com
dataarchitectoo.com
clientfunnelformula.com
30pps.com
cherylroll.com
ks2252.com
prowp.net
webmanicura.com
sofietsshotel.com
facetorch.com
nylawyerreview.com
apapromotions.com
shareparelli.com
goeaglepointe.com
thegreenmanpubphuket.com
karotorossian.com
publicsensor.com
taiwandefence.com
epcsur.com
southstills.com
tvtv98.com
thewellington-hotel.com
bccaipiao.com
colectoresindustrialesgs.com
shenanddcg.com
capriartfilmfestival.com
replicabreitlingsale.com
thaiamarinnewtoncorner.com
gkmcww.com
mbnkbj.com
andrewbrennandesign.com
cod54.com
luobinzhang.com
faithfirst.net
zjyc28.com
tongchengjinyeyouyue0004.com
nhuan6.com
kftz5k.com
oldgardensflowers.com
lightupthefloor.com
bahamamamas-stjohns.com
ly2818.com
905onthebay.com
fonemenu.com
notanothermovie.com
ukrainehighclassescort.com
meincmagazine.com
av-5858.com
yallerdawg.com
donkeythemovie.com
corporatehospitalitygroup.com
boboyy88.com
miteinander-lernen.com
dannayconsulting.com
officialtomsshoesoutletstore.com
forsale-amoxil-amoxicillin.net
generictadalafil-canada.net
guitarlessonseastlondon.com
lesliesrestaurants.com
mattyno9.com
nri-homeloans.com
rtgvisas-qatar.com
salbutamolventolinonline.net
sportsinjuries.info
wedsna.com
rgkntk.com
bkkmarketplace.com
zxqcwx.com
breakupprogram.com
boxcardc.com
unblockyoutubeindonesia.com
fabulousbookmark.com
beat-the.com
guatemala-sailfishing-vacations-charters.com
magie-marketing.com
kingstonliteracy.com
guitaraffinity.com
eurelookinggoodapparel.com
howtolosecheekfat.net
marioncma.org
oliviadavismusic.com
shantelcampbellrealestate.com
shopleborn13.com
topindiafree.com
v-visitors.net
djjky.com
053hh.com
originbluei.com
baucishotel.com
33kkn.com
intrinsiqresearch.com
mariaescort-kiev.com
mymaguk.com
sponsored4u.com
crimsonclass.com
bataillenavale.com
searchtile.com
ze-stribrnych-struh.com
zenithalhype.com
modalpkv.com
bouisset-lafforgue.com
useupload.com
37r.net
autoankauf-muenster.com
bantinbongda.net
bilgius.com
brabustermagazine.com
indigrow.org
miicrosofts.net
mysmiletravel.com
selinasims.com
spellcubesapp.com
usa-faction.com
hypoallergenicdogsnames.com
dailyupdatez.com
foodphotographyreviews.com
cricutcom-setup.com
chprowebdesign.com
katyrealty-kanepa.com
tasramar.com
bilgipinari.org
four-am.com
indiarepublicday.com
inquick-enbooks.com
iracmpi.com
kakaschoenen.com
lsm99flash.com
nana1255.com
ngen-niagara.com
technwzs.com
virtualonlinecasino1345.com
wallpapertop.net
casino-natali.com
iprofit-internet.com
denochemexicana.com
eventhalfkg.com
medcon-taiwan.com
life-himawari.com
myriamshomes.com
nightmarevue.com
healthandfitnesslives.com
androidnews-jp.com
allstarsru.com
bestofthebuckeyestate.com
bestofthefirststate.com
bestwireless7.com
britsmile.com
declarationintermittent.com
findhereall.com
jingyou888.com
lsm99deal.com
lsm99galaxy.com
moozatech.com
nuagh.com
patliyo.com
philomenamagikz.net
rckouba.net
saturnunipessoallda.com
tallahasseefrolics.com
thematurehardcore.net
totalenvironment-inthatquietearth.com
velislavakaymakanova.com
vermontenergetic.com
kakakpintar.com
begorgeouslady.com
1800birks4u.com
2wheelstogo.com
6strip4you.com
bigdata-world.net
emailandco.net
gacapal.com
jharpost.com
krishnaastro.com
lsm99credit.com
mascalzonicampani.com
sitemapxml.org
thecityslums.net
topagh.com
flairnetwebdesign.com
rajasthancarservices.com
bangkaeair.com
beneventocoupon.com
noternet.org
oqtive.com
smilebrightrx.com
decollage-etiquette.com
1millionbestdownloads.com
7658.info
bidbass.com
devlopworldtech.com
digitalmarketingrajkot.com
fluginfo.net
naqlafshk.com
passion-decouverte.com
playsirius.com
spacceleratorintl.com
stikyballs.com
top10way.com
yokidsyogurt.com
zszyhl.com
16firthcrescent.com
abogadolaboralistamd.com
apk2wap.com
aromacremeria.com
banparacard.com
bosmanraws.com
businessproviderblog.com
caltonosa.com
calvaryrevivalchurch.org
chastenedsoulwithabrokenheart.com
cheminotsgardcevennes.com
cooksspot.com
cqxzpt.com
deesywig.com
deltacartoonmaps.com
despixelsetdeshommes.com
duocoracaobrasileiro.com
fareshopbd.com
goodpainspills.com
hemendekor.com
kobisitecdn.com
makaigoods.com
mgs1454.com
piccadillyresidences.com
radiolaondafresca.com
rubendorf.com
searchengineimprov.com
sellmyhrvahome.com
shugahouseessentials.com
sonihullquad.com
subtractkilos.com
valeriekelmansky.com
vipasdigitalmarketing.com
voolivrerj.com
zeelonggroup.com
1015southrockhill.com
10x10b.com
111-online-casinos.com
191cb.com
3665arpentunitd.com
aitesonics.com
bag-shokunin.com
brightotech.com
communication-digitale-services.com
covoakland.org
dariaprimapack.com
freefortniteaccountss.com
gatebizglobal.com
global1entertainmentnews.com
greatytene.com
hiroshiwakita.com
iktodaypk.com
jahatsakong.com
meadowbrookgolfgroup.com
newsbharati.net
platinumstudiosdesign.com
slotxogamesplay.com
strikestaruk.com
trucosdefortnite.com
ufabetrune.com
weddedtowhitmore.com
12940brycecanyonunitb.com
1311dietrichoaks.com
2monarchtraceunit303.com
601legendhill.com
850elaine.com
adieusolasomade.com
andora-ke.com
bestslotxogames.com
cannagomcallen.com
endlesslyhot.com
iestpjva.com
ouqprint.com
pwmaplefest.com
qtylmr.com
rb88betting.com
buscadogues.com
1007macfm.com
born-wild.com
growthinvests.com
promocode-casino.com
proyectogalgoargentina.com
wbthompson-art.com
whitemountainwheels.com
7thavehvl.com
developmethis.com
funkydogbowties.com
travelodgegrandjunction.com
gao-town.com
globalmarketsuite.com
blogshippo.com
hdbka.com
proboards67.com
outletonline-michaelkors.com
kalkis-research.com
thuthuatit.net
buckcash.com
hollistercanada.com
docterror.com
asadart.com
vmayke.org
erwincomputers.com
dirimart.org
okkii.com
loteriasdecehegin.com
mountanalog.com
healingtaobritain.com
ttxmonitor.com
nwordpress.com
11bolabonanza.com