Walker's deal: What it means for Astros, D-backs, 1B market

Christian Walker developed into one of the best first basemen in the Majors over the past three seasons with the D-backs. As a result, he was one of the best players available at the position in free agency this offseason. But he is available no more.

On Friday, Walker agreed to a three-year, $60 million contract with the Astros, a source told MLB.com's Mark Feinsand. The club has not confirmed the transaction, which fills an evident need for Houston and takes a top option away from the handful of clubs still looking to upgrade at first base this winter.

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Walker by the numbers

2024: 130 G, .251 BA, .335 OBP, .468 SLG, .803 OPS, 26 HR, 84 RBIs, 3.0 fWAR
Career: 832 G, .250 BA, .330 OBP, .463 SLG, .793 OPS, 147 HR, 443 RBIs, 14.9 fWAR

Here is a breakdown of this signing from all angles, via MLB.com experts.

Why did the Astros make this move?
via MLB.com reporter Brian Murphy

Although there has been so much focus on whether or not the Astros will bring back Alex Bregman, the club had just as big of an issue at first base. The 2022 addition of José Abreu didn't work out in Houston, and he produced a scant .362 OPS in 35 games this past season before he was released in June.

The Astros ended up using Jon Singleton at first for 94 games. He was serviceable overall -- 13 homers in 355 at-bats with a 103 OPS+ this past season -- but he is only about one year younger than Walker, is not a good defensive player and struggles versus left-handed pitching.

The 33-year-old Walker has averaged 32 homers per season since the start of 2022 and is a three-time Gold Glove winner. He possesses a lot of pull-side power, something that should play nicely with the Crawford Boxes in left field.

As for Bregman, this move would seemingly all but signal the end of his time in Houston. The Astros acquired third baseman Isaac Paredes from the Cubs in the Kyle Tucker trade. They could have moved Paredes across the diamond if a deal was finalized with Bregman, but now Houston looks set at the corner-infield spots.

What do the D-backs do next?
via D-backs beat writer Steve Gilbert

Losing Walker leaves a big hole in the Diamondbacks' lineup and clubhouse.

Since taking over at first base in 2019 for Paul Goldschmidt, Walker has been a mainstay. From 2019-24, Walker slashed .253/.332/.464 while winning three straight Gold Glove awards from 2022-24.

In addition, Walker became a leader in the clubhouse with players sitting around his locker postgame discussing the just-finished game, and he set the tone with his hard-nosed style of play.

The departure, though, was not unexpected once Walker turned down Arizona's qualifying offer, and the Diamondbacks have been exploring different ways of replacing him.

While the fan base might long for a reunion with Goldschmidt, that doesn't seem to be likely at this point, and the Cubs didn't bite when Arizona brought up a Jordan Montgomery-for-Cody Bellinger trade proposal.

The Diamondbacks do have options internally, including former first-round Draft pick Pavin Smith, who has not gotten an extended look at first base.

Hot Stove implications
via MLB.com reporter Brian Murphy

There are a bunch of possibilities for clubs looking to add at first base, but there is only one top-tier free agent left at the position: Pete Alonso. He is nowhere near Walker's equal when it comes to defense, but he is three years younger and is one of the game's best sluggers; Alonso is second only to Aaron Judge in home runs since the beginning of 2019.

However, Alonso's market has been quiet so far. According to Feinsand, none of the teams seeking help at first base -- the Mets, Yankees Mariners and D-backs among them -- appear inclined to meet Alonso's asking price, which would include more years and dollars than Walker's contract. The Mets have remained in talks with the Polar Bear, according to owner Steve Cohen. The Yankees have been linked to him as well, but they might look instead at cheaper alternatives such as Carlos Santana and Paul Goldschmidt. The Mariners, Nationals and Giants are all interested in Goldschmidt, according to USA Today's Bob Nightengale.

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The Mariners, who reportedly had Walker atop their offseason wish list, could address first base via the trade market. MLB Network insider Jon Paul Morosi reported on Thursday that Seattle has inquired about Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor, who is entering his final year of club control. The Rangers' Nathaniel Lowe and the Rays' Yandy Díaz are a couple more potential trade targets at first base.

Nolan Arenado has said he is open to moving to first base in the right scenario. But with a full no-trade clause, he also has the ability to nix any potential trade. He used that power just recently, shutting down a possible deal that would have sent him to the Astros, sources told MLB.com.

Diving deep
via analyst Mike Petriello

If you’re wondering why signing a 33-year-old first baseman to a three-year deal is a good idea, well, we went deep on this last month, so start there. The short version is this: Walker, the three-time defending NL Gold Glove winner, is the best-fielding first baseman in Statcast history, and it’s not particularly close. He’s not getting this contract just because of defense, to be clear, but it’s something of a separator at his age, because you don’t have to assume he’ll need to be a DH by the end of it, and that takes some pressure off the bat.

The bat plays too, of course. Walker has the 11th-most homers in baseball over the past three seasons, and overall he’s been about as valuable a hitter as Alonso has been, just with slightly fewer dingers. Walker's bat speed, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate are all similar to what his more famous (possibly ex-) Mets counterpart has posted. The total package is that Walker has been a top-five 1B by fWAR over the previous three years, and while the age is absolutely a concern, three years is a reasonable span. While the obvious comparison will be the ill-fated three-year contract that Houston handed out to Abreu, remember that Abreu was already heading into his age-36 season when he signed. That will be Walker's final season under this deal.

The more interesting thought, age-wise, is how we might have perceived Walker had he not been stuck behind so many stars -- variously, and sometimes briefly -- such as Chris Davis, Joey Votto, Freddie Freeman and Goldschmidt on team depth charts earlier in his career. Walker didn't get his first shot to play regularly until he was 28 years old. If not for that, he might not be viewed as a late bloomer. He might be viewed as a superstar -- and would have reached free agency years younger. “What did we miss here?” is a fun question to consider.

In a vacuum, it’s a great deal for Houston, which gets an elite first baseman without having to go beyond a third year for a player entering his age-34 season. In comparison to last season's Astros, it’s a particularly tremendous deal; Abreu's performance was so lacking that he was released, and Astros first basemen ended up being the third-weakest in the game. To go from that to possibly top-five is a monumental improvement.

On the other hand, these things don’t happen in a vacuum, and if you think it’s more than a little confounding that Houston would sign a win-now 33-year-old after trading Kyle Tucker and presumably being out on Alex Bregman, we would agree.?The direction is confusing. The deal is good. Both things can be true.

Stat to know
Via MLB.com research staff

39: That is Walker's outs above average total over the past three seasons. Not only does that rank inside the top 10 among all infielders since the start of 2022, that OAA total is more than double that of the next-best first baseman (Santana, 19).