What Williams trade means for Yanks, Crew & bullpen market

The Yankees and Brewers agreed on a major trade Friday, with each side adding different elements to their pitching staff. The Yanks bolstered their bullpen with elite closer Devin Williams while the Brewers improved their rotation with left-handed starter Nestor Cortes. Milwaukee also gained Minor League infielder Caleb Durbin in the swap.

TRADE DETAILS
Yankees get: RHP Devin Williams
Brewers get: LHP Nestor Cortes, INF Caleb Durbin, cash considerations

Here is a breakdown of this intriguing exchange from all angles, via MLB.com experts.

Why it makes sense for the Yankees
Via Yankees beat writer Bryan Hoch

Williams’ acquisition will move Luke Weaver back to a setup role within a Yankees bullpen that has seen displaced closer Clay Holmes move across town to the Mets, with Tim Hill and Tommy Kahnle also free agents. The Yanks have also re-signed Jonathan Loáisiga, a source told MLB.com. He is recovering from Tommy John surgery and should be ready to join New York at some point this coming season.

Having earned $3.95 million this past year as he heads into his final season of arbitration eligibility, Cortes became expendable for the Yankees following their addition of Max Fried, who reportedly agreed Tuesday to an eight-year, $218 million contract, which represents the largest deal ever issued to a left-handed pitcher.

A 2022 American League All-Star, Cortes has spent five of his seven big league seasons with the Yankees, also pitching briefly for the Orioles and Mariners. In 135 Major League games (86 starts), Cortes has compiled a 33-21 record and 3.80 ERA.

The Yanks’ rotation now projects to include Gerrit Cole, Fried, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt and Marcus Stroman. More >>

Why it makes sense for the Brewers
Via Brewers beat writer Adam McCalvy

Williams was an obvious trade candidate for the Brewers from the start of the offseason, and it has nothing to do with him surrendering Pete Alonso's series-flipping home run in the ninth inning of Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Mets. Just like Corbin Burnes last offseason, Williams was going into his final season before free agency, and a team like Milwaukee, which has been winning on a modest budget, almost always has to flip those types of players for the next wave of talent, no matter how much the departure of a Cy Young Award winner like Burnes, or a two-time Reliever of the Year like Williams, hurts in the short-term.

In this case, the Brewers are getting back a prominent piece in the same contractual position in Cortes, who is entering his final year of arbitration. But it still makes sense for Milwaukee for a couple of reasons. One, they were able to acquire a versatile infielder in Durbin who gives them lots of options for replacing shortstop Willy Adames, and who fits right into the Brewers’ love of speed. Two, it gives them a lefty starter for the top portion of a relatively thin rotation who can always be flipped at next year’s Trade Deadline if the Brewers’ bid for an NL Central three-peat goes sideways. And three, the Brewers have internal replacements for Williams, even if none of them are as accomplished as a pitcher with a changeup so good it has its own nickname.

The Brewers were 48-33 while Williams was on the injured list to start last season. Trevor Megill, who led the way with 20 saves in that span, is controllable for three more years. And another flamethrower, Abner Uribe, who began last season as the closer before command problems earned him a demotion, and a knee injury ended his season, will also be back.

Williams’ regular-season brilliance helped the Brewers ease the sting of trading Josh Hader in 2022. Now, someone will have to do the same. More >>

Hot Stove implications
Via MLB.com reporter Brian Murphy

The bullpen market has been a little quiet this winter. But there are a large number of impactful arms still available in free agency, and perhaps this trade involving one of the very best relievers will lead to a flurry of activity.

The top three free-agent relievers by FanGraphs WAR over the past two seasons -- Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman and David Robertson -- are all still available.

On Friday’s edition of Hot Stove, MLB Network insider Jon Paul Morosi said there was a lot of buzz surrounding Scott during this week’s Winter Meetings in Dallas, and he reported that the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers, Red Sox and Blue Jays have all been linked to the All-Star left-hander, who had a 1.75 ERA over 72 innings this past season. That report came before the Williams trade went down, so it’s unclear if the Yanks will remain involved for Scott. What is clear is that he has many clubs pursuing him. Regarding the rest of the bullpen market, Morosi said teams seem to be waiting for Scott to sign since he figures to land the most lucrative contract among available relief pitchers.

Morosi added that some mix of those aforementioned teams are also interested in Kirby Yates and Kyle Finnegan, both of whom were also All-Stars in 2024. Yates was an All-MLB Second Team selection after enjoying a bounceback season with the Rangers. Finnegan saved 38 games for the Nationals this year before he was non-tendered last month.

Hoffman posted a 2.17 ERA and a 12.1 K/9 over 66 1/3 innings out of the Phillies’ bullpen in 2024, and the Phils are open to a reunion, according to The Athletic’s Matt Gelb (subscription required). Robertson is entering his age-40 season, but the 16-year vet produced a 12.4 K/9 and a 3.00 ERA across 72 innings with Texas this past season.

Other viable closers available include Kenley Jansen and Carlos Estévez. The 37-year-old Jansen is one of eight pitchers in MLB history with at least 400 saves. Estévez had 57 saves and a 3.22 ERA over the previous two seasons while pitching for the Angels and Phillies.

• Latest free-agent and trade rumors

Prospect profile
Via senior reporter Sam Dykstra

INF Caleb Durbin
Age: 24
Ht: 5’ 6” / Wt: 185 lbs.
Bats: R / Throws: R
Drafted: 14th round, 2021
MLB ETA: 2025

2024 stats
Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre .287/.396/.471, 10 HR, 60 RBIs, 29 SB in 82 games

A former Division III standout at Washington University in St. Louis, Durbin climbed to Triple-A in 2024 and showed high in-zone contact rates against a variety of pitch types because of his impressive hand-eye coordination. His plus speed and exceptional baserunning acumen helped him set an Arizona Fall League single-season record with 29 steals, further strengthening his place on the prospect landscape. He is undersized at 5-foot-6 and, as expected, doesn’t have a ton of raw power (think Sal Frelick from the right side), which limits his ceiling and everyday potential. He has moved around plenty in his pro career with stops at second, third, shortstop, center and left and profiles best as a Major League utilityman who can provide wheels off the bench.

Diving deep
Via analyst Mike Petriello

In the five seasons since Williams burst onto the scene in 2020, he’s second among all pitchers with 200 innings with a 1.70 ERA, third in strikeout rate, at 40.8%, first in batting average against, at .144, and fifth in homers allowed per nine, 0.53. He strikes out a ton of hitters and also you can’t get any hits off of him is the succinct way to put it, and that’s more than enough to not worry too hard about the obvious downside, which is that his 12% walk rate is on the high side of acceptable, 11th highest in that time.

That’s nitpicking, though, because when you come across a pitcher with an offering so elite that it carries its own branding -- “The Airbender,” Williams’ screwball-esque changeup, which has more than 19 inches of arm-side break on the way to the plate -- you don’t worry that much about the walks.

As important as what he’s done in his career to date, though, is what he did in 2024. Williams missed the first half of the season with stress fractures in his back, a truly frightening combination of words for any pitcher. In 21 2/3 innings after returning, Williams looked like … well, himself, striking out 43% of batters and allowing just three earned runs, and surely giving the Yankees confidence in his health.

Really, though, it all comes back to that changeup. Put it this way: Over the last five seasons, it’s the 10th-most valuable pitch type in baseball, according to run value, at +52. The thing is, that’s a counting stat. Every single pitch that's more valuable -- Dylan Cease's slider, Kevin Gausman’s splitter, etc. -- comes from starting pitchers who have thrown those pitches hundreds or thousands of times. There’s not another reliever in sight. It’s one of the most valuable pitches in the game, and it’s well-suited for Yankee Stadium.