White Sox can win offseason with 1 last move

It would be tempting to say the White Sox are already wrapping up a successful offseason. They added a top-10 starting pitcher by trading for Lance Lynn and filled their right-field hole by agreeing to terms with Adam Eaton, according to a source. Add one top-shelf reliever (Liam Hendriks? Brad Hand?) to replace free agent Alex Colomé, and general manager Rick Hahn could wake up Christmas morning having crossed off the three biggest items on his shopping list.

But … why should the White Sox stop there? Truth be told, there’s one more acquisition that could place the South Siders firmly in the American League Central driver’s seat.

That last big piece? George Springer.

The Lynn trade made this precocious White Sox team even more exciting on paper, giving them three top-10 finishers in this year’s AL Cy Young Award vote, the reigning AL MVP (José Abreu), a super-prodigy who finished runner-up in AL Rookie of the Year voting (Luis Robert), another prodigious slugger to grow alongside him (Eloy Jiménez) and a top-five catcher (Yasmani Grandal). We haven’t even mentioned stars like Tim Anderson, Yoán Moncada and Michael Kopech.

That’s an imposing group for both 2021 and beyond, but the current projections say the South Siders could still be looking at a three-horse race for next year’s AL Central crown -- just as they were this year, when they saw a three-game division lead evaporate over the season’s final eight days. The Twins still have a potent offense (assuming they can re-sign Nelson Cruz) and a strong top of the rotation with Kenta Maeda and José Berríos. The Indians still have reigning AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber, José Ramírez and Francisco Lindor (for now). Per FanGraphs’ Depth Charts projections, there’s barely anything that separates those three teams.

AL Central projected team WAR totals (via FanGraphs)

Twins: 38.4
White Sox: 38.0
Indians: 37.4
---
Royals: 26.6
Tigers: 21.5
*Through Eaton’s reported deal on Tuesday

Couldn’t Springer -- a projected 4-win player in 2021 -- be the difference maker in that three-team gridlock? Chicago would be adding Springer’s elite offense (a top-10 Major League bat, by several metrics) to the AL’s second-best scoring team from ’20, with his bat representing a huge upgrade from Adam Engel (career 68 OPS+), the club's current projected left-field starter. Think about being an opposing pitcher trying to navigate this lineup:

1) Springer, LF
2) Anderson, SS
3) Grandal, C
4) Abreu, 1B
5) Jiménez, DH
6) Moncada, 3B
7) Robert, CF
8) Nick Madrigal, 2B
9) Eaton, RF

And, if the White Sox could convince Springer to play a corner position, they get trickle-down gains on defense: Robert’s elite glove would stay in center field, and the defensively challenged Jiménez could serve as DH. (Top prospect Andrew Vaughn is knocking on the door for DH at-bats, but he hasn’t had a plate appearance above Class A Advanced ball thanks to the coronavirus pandemic; this would give Chicago a chance to give Vaughn at least a few more months of Minor League seasoning.)

One of the best parts of the Lynn trade is that while the White Sox parted with two top prospect arms in Dane Dunning and Avery Weems, they only owe Lynn $9.3 million in 2021 in the final year of his contract. Eaton is also affordable on a reported one-year, $7.5 million deal. The South Siders would need to spend big to land Springer (especially with Steve Cohen and the Mets looking like Springer’s most likely destination); he's expected to sign for somewhere near a $25 million average annual value.

But they’ve hardly broken the bank with their additions so far. Writing on Tuesday before the Eaton deal was reported, FanGraphs’ Craig Edwards estimated that the White Sox projected 2021 payroll was about $30 million below this year’s total. Accounting for Eaton’s salary puts Chicago about $22.5 million shy of that mark -- aka one Springer-sized contract.

We’re rounding here, and potential arbitration raises for players like Giolito, Engel and Evan Marshall are still pending. Springer is not a perfect payroll fit, even before one accounts for the potential financial losses the White Sox suffered from the coronavirus pandemic. And we’re not blind to the fact that Chicago could use more bullpen help, the kind of need that Hendriks (on a cheaper salary than Springer) would help solve.

Except there’s no guarantee that Hendriks (whom the A’s rode hard this past October) or Hand (already seeing declining velocity on his fastball and slider) would solve the White Sox bullpen shortcomings. Relievers are the sport's most unpredictable players, and this year’s market might be flooded with more of them (see: Matt Wisler’s reported $1.15 million deal with the Giants) than ever before. Springer seems like a surer bet to remain valuable alongside the White Sox young stars as they mature. He’s also a proven postseason performer who could help Chicago learn how to win in October.

Hahn and his staff would need to shuffle some chairs and go bargain hunting in the relief market to make a Springer signing work. But, after already making an all-in move by trading for Lynn, shouldn’t the White Sox keep going? Contention windows can be incredibly fleeting (the Sox can ask the crosstown Cubs about that), but Springer could give the South Siders a chance to become pennant contenders -- not just AL Central hopefuls.