Welcome to the 2025-26 Hot Stove season.
Wait, what?
Sure, there are 150 or so games remaining in the regular season, but Sunday night¡¯s news that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays have agreed to a 14-year, $500 million extension made a major impact on the upcoming offseason, taking the biggest name off of next winter¡¯s free-agent market.
Guerrero was set to become this year¡¯s version of Juan Soto; a 26-year-old slugger entering the prime years of an already impressive career. The bidding might not have made it to the $765 million that Soto landed from the Mets, but with teams such as the Yankees and Mets potentially getting involved, there¡¯s a chance Guerrero could have worked his way past the $600 million mark.
Now, with Guerrero off the market and locked into Toronto until nearly 2040 -- what a crazy thing to even think about ¨C the upcoming free-agent class just became a lot less top-heavy.
Kyle Tucker now becomes the gem of that group, and given the outfielder¡¯s blazing start in his first year with the Cubs, it doesn¡¯t appear that there are any contract-year concerns about the three-time All-Star. Tucker is two years older than Guerrero, but he¡¯s a more complete player in terms of defense and baserunning, so the idea of him landing a deal worth north of $40 million per season over 10-plus years is certainly in play.
The next names on the list won¡¯t be known for several months, as a handful of prominent players including Alex Bregman, Cody Bellinger and Pete Alonso have opt-out clauses that could send them back to free agency if they post big numbers in 2025.
Alonso stands to benefit most from Guerrero¡¯s new deal, as he would likely become the top first baseman available should he opt out of his $24 million salary for 2026 and test the market for a second straight year.
There are a number of proven veteran hitters headed for free agency after his season, and not even taking age into account, none provides the potential pop that Guerrero would have. Kyle Schwarber, Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto, Cedric Mullins, Luis Arraez and Eugenio Suárez will all have teams knocking on their doors, but for any club that had Guerrero on their offseason wish list, none of these players can be considered a comparable Plan B.
Bo Bichette, Guerrero¡¯s longtime teammate, could thrust himself into free-agent prominence if he can bounce back from a miserable 2024 campaign, though it seems unlikely that he will remain in Toronto either way.
Aside from Alonso, the players who might be the biggest winners in the Guerrero fallout are the starting pitchers on next year¡¯s free-agent market, as clubs could opt to spend big on pitching without the presence of many top-level offensive options.
Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Michael King and Framber Valdez lead a deep class of starters, followed by Zach Eflin, Brandon Woodruff and Ranger Suárez. Jack Flaherty could find himself back in the mix again, as well, as he can opt out of the final year of his deal with the Tigers to give free agency a try for a third straight offseason.
The relief market will also be hot next winter, with Devin Williams, Ryan Helsley, Raisel Iglesias and Ryan Pressly all potentially headed to the open market.
The aforementioned Yankees and Mets figured to be the two biggest threats to the Blue Jays had Guerrero reached free agency, as both New York clubs could be looking at another offseason with a void at first base. Paul Goldschmidt is on a one-year deal with the Yankees, while Alonso is widely expected to opt out from the final year of his deal with the Mets.
For quite some time, I have been comparing first baseman to running backs, a position on which NFL teams have become reluctant to spend big money. Given that both Freddie Freeman (six years, $162 million as a free agent) and Matt Olson (eight years, $168 million extension) signed for less than $170 million, it felt like it would be quite some time before we saw a first baseman sign for $200 million or more the way Joey Votto, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Price Fielder did over a decade ago.
Guerrero shattered that ceiling with the third-largest guaranteed deal in baseball history, though given his age and production, he may prove to be an outlier.
Beyond Alonso, the group of free-agent first basemen is now led by Arraez, Rhys Hoskins and Josh Naylor, all of whom have plenty to offer clubs but will never be confused for Guerrero in terms of potential impact. Someone will be playing first base for the Yankees and Mets in 2026, though with Guerrero no longer an option, those clubs will have to look elsewhere to make a big splash in the offseason.