Postseason FAQ: What's next for Guardians?

CLEVELAND -- On the eve of Opening Day, the Guardians owned a 33.4 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs, as some other teams across the Majors sat in the 90s. It was mostly based on the fact that the team was returning a large chunk of the roster that put together a sub-.500 record in 2023 and now had a first-time manager at the helm.

The Guardians loved it.

The doubt has fueled Cleveland’s roster since Spring Training and it led to two big celebrations in a four-day span, as the Guardians clinched their playoff berth with a win over Minnesota on Sept. 19, before a Royals loss three days later allowed Cleveland to clinch its 12th AL Central title. The club clinched a first-round bye with its 6-1 win against the Reds on Tuesday.

“Obviously, we worked really hard to get here,” manager Stephen Vogt said of the first-round bye. “It’s just so great for these guys. They’ve earned every bit of this. For them to be able to get the five days [off] next week leading up to it, for us to get really good work in, for them to get their rest, heal up, refresh, we couldn’t be more thankful for this opportunity.”

The fun is only getting started. Here’s everything you need to know as the Guardians prepare for the postseason:

What could the postseason roster look like?
C: Bo Naylor, Austin Hedges
1B: Josh Naylor
2B: Andrés Giménez
3B: José Ramírez
SS: Brayan Rocchio
OF: Steven Kwan, Lane Thomas, Jhonkensy Noel, Will Brennan
DH: David Fry, Kyle Manzardo
UTL: Daniel Schneemann
SP: Tanner Bibee, Matthew Boyd, Ben Lively, Gavin Williams
RP: Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, Pedro Avila, Eli Morgan, Nick Sandlin, Andrew Walters, Joey Cantillo

What’s still left to accomplish?
Cleveland has the postseason berth, the division and the first-round bye locked up.

Who needs to get healthy?
Now that Kwan is back from the IL, all eyes are on Alex Cobb. He’s only made three starts this season because of a myriad of injuries. Cobb is now working his way back from a blister on his pitching hand. Will he be ready to go before October? Do the Guardians see Cobb working his way back into the rotation since those three starts looked solid? Will they limit him to a bullpen role instead? There are still a lot of questions to answer.

For guys who have been on the 60-day or 10- and 15-day injured lists this year and have served the full stint of their required number of days to be out of action (like Shane Bieber, Trevor Stephan, Sam Hentges and James Karinchak), they can be replaced by anyone who was in the Guardians’ organization prior to September.

So someone like Walters can be added to a playoff roster even though he wasn’t on the 40-man during the final month of the regular season.

Rotation plans
Well, the Guardians may still have to figure this out. We know Tanner Bibee will likely get the ball in Game 1 on Oct. 5. It also seems likely that Boyd will start Game 2 on Oct. 7, since Cleveland kept both of these guys out of the rotation during the Astros series to close out the regular season. But who will get Game 3 on Oct. 9?

Lively has been great all season, but he has shown signs of fatigue over the past few weeks. Plus, his experience working out of the bullpen in the past could be helpful considering Williams has never done that.

Which brings us to the next point. The Guardians planned to have Williams serve as a bulk man against the Astros on Sunday, but the regular-season finale was cancelled due to inclement weather. Could he piggyback Cobb in an ALDS start?

And what about Cantillo? Two weeks ago, he was just a spot starter, filling in for Cobb. But for the bulk of Cantillo's last four starts, he’s looked utterly dominant. He’s inexperienced, but does that matter for a club that’s tried to ride the hot hand all season? Can he work his way into the conversation?

What are the other position battles to watch?

1. Brennan vs. Straw
Do you take Brennan’s bat or Straw’s defense and speed? The Guardians saw last week against the Twins what a late-game pinch-hit plate appearance can result in if they stick with Brennan.

But Straw is definitely an upgrade if they’d use him as a defensive replacement in the late innings or as a pinch-runner when the team desperately needs a run to score. Yes, Straw is back in Triple-A, but he will be available if the team chooses to add him to the ALDS roster.

2. Straw vs. fifth starter
Maybe the Guardians just carry 12 pitchers in their first round of the playoffs since it won’t be a seven-game series. Straw could be the fifth man on the bench and the Guardians wouldn't need to add one of their starters to the bullpen for extra depth. It’s beneficial to have speed on the bench, but Cleveland has also suffered enough short starts this season to know it can never have too many options in the ‘pen.

3. Last spot in the ‘pen
In the case that the Guardians do carry 13 pitchers, is Cobb the man who moves to the ‘pen? Has Erik Sabrowski done enough to prove he can handle this opportunity? Does Cantillo go to the bullpen instead of making the rotation? Is Triston McKenzie in consideration, since the Guardians have been having him work in relief at Triple-A Columbus to be an option for them if they need him? They have choices if they want to get creative.

Who could be the first-round matchup?
The Guardians are the No. 2 seed, which means they will play the winner of the Wild Card Series between the third-seeded Astros and the sixth-seeded Tigers. Cleveland went 1-4 against Houston this season, while going 7-6 against Detroit.

“Obviously, we’re going to wait and see who we play,” Vogt said. “Two very good teams. We know Detroit very well and obviously just got to know Houston. We know whoever we end up playing, we’re going to have our work cut out for us.”