The unheralded ace who just might be one of MLB's best pitchers

Cole Ragans looked nearly unhittable.

For six dominant innings against the A’s on Aug. 23, the Royals left-hander baffled the Oakland lineup. Ragans allowed just two hits and racked up 11 strikeouts, matching his career high and tying for the most K’s by a Royals starter all season. Against A’s catcher Shea Langeliers in the fifth, the lefty uncorked a 101 mph fastball, the fastest pitch of his young career.

Part of a standout second half for Ragans after a midseason trade from the Rangers to the Royals, the start in Oakland put the young pitcher’s potential on full display. Ragans finished his 2023 season with a 2.64 ERA in 12 starts with Kansas City, striking out 89 batters in 71 2/3 innings and cementing himself as one of the hardest-throwing starters in the game.

During Spring Training, Ragans mostly picked up where he left off, striking out eight across five scoreless innings in his first two outings and later surpassing 99 mph on the radar gun.

It’s clear the 26-year-old -- who was named K.C.’s Opening Day starter on March 17 -- has the potential to be one of MLB’s best pitchers, and he’s a rare find for a Royals team that could really use a No. 1 starter.

Here’s how Ragans developed into a budding ace for a Kansas City club in need and how the left-hander plans to sustain his success in 2024.

A new arsenal
What is it about Ragans’ arsenal that makes him so special?

Start with a four-seam fastball that averaged 96.5 mph in 2023, topping out with that 101 mph toss against the A’s. Ragans’ 96.7 mph average with the Royals was tied for second among all left-handed starters, tied with the Marlins’ Jesús Luzardo and trailing only the Rays’ Shane McClanahan. Ragans’ fastball also featured well-above-average horizontal movement when compared to other four-seamers thrown with a similar velocity and release point.

The increased velocity itself was a huge step for the left-hander. In 2022 with the Rangers, Ragans averaged just 92.1 mph on his fastball, ranking in the 21st percentile in MLB. A jump of more than 4 mph in a single year is extremely rare: Of the 175 pitchers who threw at least 300 four-seamers in 2022 and 2023, Ragans’ year-over-year increase was the largest -- by far.

Largest four-seam fastball velocity increase, 2022-23
Min. 300 four-seamers each season (175 pitchers)
1. Cole Ragans (KC): +4.4 mph
2-T. Carlos Hernández (KC): +2.3 mph
2-T. Sean Manaea (NYM): +2.3 mph
4. Freddy Peralta (MIL): +1.8 mph
5. Tarik Skubal (DET): +1.7 mph

It wasn’t just the fastball. After being shipped from the Rangers to the Royals in the Aroldis Chapman deal on June 30, Ragans debuted with Kansas City on July 15. The first time he faced lefty Luke Raley in the second inning, Ragans dropped in the first slider of his MLB career for a called strike. In the fourth, Ragans greeted Raley with another slider, resulting in a weak ground ball to the right side.

Ragans fully incorporated the slider into his arsenal beginning with his next start, a strong outing against the Mets on Aug. 2, and the pitch has paid dividends. With above-average velocity and vertical break, Ragans’ slider induced a preposterous 64.0% swing rate, second among all sliders in 2023, and hitters came up empty on a hefty 40.0% of swings against the pitch.

What was behind this transformation? Ragans credits remote work during the 2022-23 offseason with Charlotte, N.C.-based Tread Athletics, focusing on his mechanics and mobility. His time with Tread proved so fruitful that Ragans went back this past offseason, too.

“They helped me just get stronger, help my body move better, mobility stuff, arm move quicker -- just that kind of thing,” Ragans said in August. “It’s been one of the best things I’ve ever done.”

Ragans is also in the midst of developing another offering, a two-seam sinker. The lefty threw it once during his first spring outing but said the pitch is still a “work in progress” as he tinkers with the grip and aims to maximize its horizontal break.

“Some days, it’s kind of put on the back burner,” Ragans recently told MLB.com. “We talk about it a little bit, but I’m not just going to go out there and kind of wing it. I’m here to win. We’re all here to win.”

Maintaining his dominance in 2024 won’t be easy: Ragans knows he won’t be taking anyone by surprise this season. But he’s prepared for that. Even without his new sinker, his five-pitch arsenal is designed to stop hitters from making adjustments as they get used to facing Ragans.

“If I’m mixing in the breaking balls with the changeup, the cutter, my fastball, they can’t really have an approach if I’m commanding stuff to both sides and my breaking balls and stuff like that,” Ragans said.

Can he back it up?
Watching Ragans blow away hitters and reach triple digits, it might be hard to tell that the young pitcher has come a long way.

In 2019, Ragans became one of the unlucky few pitchers to require a second Tommy John surgery. He first underwent the procedure in 2018 after experiencing elbow discomfort, and 14 months later -- near the end of his rehab process -- Ragans blew his elbow out again. The lefty was on the shelf for a long time: From 2018 to 2020, he did not appear in a single Major League or Minor League game. (The COVID-19 pandemic wiped out the entire 2020 Minor League season.)

Not many pitchers manage to shine in MLB after multiple Tommy John procedures, but Ragans appears to be among the exceptions -- so far. Next up is backing up his stellar second half and doing so over a full season. Ragans’ 114 1/3 innings between the Majors and Minors in 2023 represented the highest total of his pro career, so he’ll have to prove his durability this year to hold down a spot in the Royals’ rotation.

Can he? Opinions vary. FanGraphs’ depth charts projection estimates 165 innings for Ragans -- just enough to qualify -- but Baseball-Reference projects him to pitch just 95 innings in 2024.

Ragans said his strength and conditioning work is critical when it comes to going deep into games and staying on schedule with his starts. The lefty often checks in with trainers, weight room staff and veteran teammates like Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo, making sure he’s maintaining his strength while not overdoing anything.

“It’s like I know if I do this it’s going to keep me in the right shape to where when it does get to that sixth, seventh, eighth inning, if I’m out there, I still feel good,” Ragans said. “I still feel like my body is ready to go.”

In his 12 starts with K.C. in 2023, Ragans posted a 2.6 bWAR that easily led Royals pitchers. Even if his 2023 production level isn’t sustainable (a 2.64 ERA would be Cy Young Award territory), anything like a full campaign from the lefty would go a long way. Ragans is ready for it: After pitching exclusively out of the bullpen with the Rangers prior to the trade, he said with a smile that he’s “very” excited to return to the rotation for a full year with the Royals.

“I’m looking forward to getting after it with the guys,” Ragans said. “It’s going to be a fun season.”

Why do the Royals need an ace?
Since back-to-back trips to the World Series in 2014 and 2015, the Royals haven’t been back to the postseason. Their best record in that span? An 81-81 campaign in 2016. K.C.’s 56-106 record last season equaled a last-place finish in the American League Central.

Hitting struggles have been a large reason for that, with the Royals’ .706 team OPS from 2016 to 2023 ranking 27th in MLB and their 4.15 runs per game ranking 28th. But pitching has been a problem, too: Kansas City’s 4.76 overall ERA and 4.93 starter ERA are both 28th in that same span.

To put it one way, 19 MLB teams had at least one qualified starting pitcher with an ERA of 4 or lower in 2023. The Royals’ last such season was 2016, making them the team with the longest drought in that area. (Brady Singer came close in 2022, but he didn’t pitch enough innings to qualify.) In 2024, Ragans stands a solid chance of being the first Royals starter since Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy to post a qualified ERA under 4, although Singer, Wacha or Lugo are good candidates as well.

For a Royals team that seems intent on snapping its postseason drought and competing in the AL Central in 2024, Ragans is undeniably a key piece. Kansas City made its presence known in the free-agent market, signing pitchers Wacha, Lugo, Will Smith and Chris Stratton in addition to hitters Hunter Renfroe and Adam Frazier. A trade for Red Sox reliever John Schreiber and an extension for star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. were among the Royals’ other moves.

Despite all that added depth, there’s a lot riding on Ragans’ talented left arm. It certainly depends whether his twice-repaired elbow (and his 2023 production) can hold up, but if he can put together a strong season, Ragans could be something the Royals haven’t had in a while.

“We’ll see where it goes, but I think everybody has super high expectations, and we’re super excited,” Ragans said.

Anne Rogers contributed reporting to this story.