Mariners in holding pattern with 3B market

This story was excerpted from Daniel Kramer's Mariners Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

SEATTLE -- The Mariners entered the offseason with what they believed were a finite number of needs, and in an otherwise quiet winter across MLB’s transactional front, they believe they’re positioned to make a notable move before Spring Training, according to sources familiar with the club’s thinking.

What’s stalled their pursuits of late is the holdup on third baseman Alex Bregman, one of the major dominos left on the free-agent market who plays a position that the Mariners are explicitly seeking to upgrade.

The Mariners are not in the sweepstakes for the former Astros star, nor were they ever expected to be. His hitting profile doesn’t align with their ballpark compared to Houston’s, and the fallout from the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal would not mesh well within a clubhouse that has become a division rival.

But whichever club acquires Bregman could in turn spark movement on the lower-tier players at the hot corner.

Seattle’s first -- and only -- notable acquisition this winter was signing free-agent infielder Donovan Solano to a one-year, $3.5 million contract on Jan. 13. Solano will be more in the mix at first base than any other position, but he’s capable of playing third. The Mariners do not intend to deploy him at second.

Bregman has been linked most prominently to the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers and Cubs. All of those teams possess infielders that they could theoretically be motivated and/or willing to move, if they landed Bregman.

Of that group, the most intriguing team is the Cubs, whom the Mariners were in deep discussions with before the Winter Meetings on second baseman Nico Hoerner, with legitimate traction toward a trade, according to sources.

But Chicago pivoted by acquiring All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker from Houston in exchange for third baseman Isaac Paredes, which made Hoerner more valuable for the Cubs to hang on to and essentially halted conversations with the Mariners. If Bregman signed with the Cubs, maybe their motivations change.

In an interesting aside, sources said that the Mariners also kicked the tires with the Cubs on slugger Cody Bellinger, the former NL MVP who plays first base and the outfield and who was instead traded to the Yankees.

If Bregman lands in Boston, the Red Sox would have a massive logjam of infielders -- and a potentially difficult discussion with superstar Rafael Devers, who would likely be asked to move from third to first base and/or designated hitter. That move would also significantly diminish their need for first baseman Triston Casas, whom Boston had engaged with Seattle about at the offseason’s outset.

The Red Sox wanted one of the Mariners’ younger starting pitchers -- as in, not Luis Castillo -- and while Seattle wouldn’t rule out a trade from that group, with Boston or other teams that call, it doesn’t value Casas as highly as the Red Sox do.

If Bregman lands in Toronto -- which the industry belief suggests is less likely than Boston or Chicago -- the Blue Jays could be even more motivated to deal from their influx of infielders. But that group isn’t exactly as proven or productive as Hoerner or Casas. Orelvis Martinez, Leo Jiménez and Addison Barger are prospects the club believes are ready, while Ernie Clement and Will Wagner are more established.

If Bregman lands in Detroit, the Tigers might be open to dealing Jace Jung (MLB Pipeline’s No. 62 overall prospect) for back-end bullpen help and/or another younger shortstop prospect to replace Jung, both of which the Mariners possess.

But the thin third-base market could move elsewhere, too, when Bregman signs.

Teams like the Padres and Twins, who like the Mariners have made very few deals this offseason, possess talented infielders that they may be motivated to move to reduce payroll.

In San Diego, three-time batting champion Luis Arraez has been publicly linked to trade rumors, suggesting there’s smoke to him possibly being moved. There might not be a better contact hitter in the sport right now, but roughly 80% of his hits last year were singles, his defense was among the sport’s worst, per Statcast, and he’s slated to earn $14 million next year.

In Minnesota, Willi Castro might be a better Mariners fit -- if he’s made available -- because he’s more versatile with outfield capability, has a better glove and is earning $6.4 million. Over the past two years, Castro has been worth 4.3 WAR, per Baseball Reference, with a 103 OPS+ (league average is 100).

There’s also the possibility the Mariners reunite with Justin Turner, but their acquisition of Solano makes that less likely.

The Mariners have had to pivot quite a bit this winter. Sources said that they offered Carlos Santana more total money than the one-year, $12 million deal he eventually took from the Guardians, and the Mariners made an aggressive push to trade for former Rangers first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, but felt that Texas had trepidation over dealing him within the division. Lowe was instead traded to the Nationals.

Seattle might have to pivot a little more, but it believes there are still options out there -- even if the market takes a little longer to manifest.