Who are the MVP favorites, dark horses in 2025?

Two of MLB’s biggest stars delivered memorable MVP seasons in 2024.

In the American League, Yankees slugger Aaron Judge rivaled his AL-record 62-home-run 2022 campaign, hitting 58 homers with an 1.159 OPS to capture his second MVP Award. In the National League, Shohei Ohtani created the 50-50 club in his first year with the Dodgers to bring home his second straight and third career MVP.

It was quite the year for Judge and Ohtani -- but can they do it again in 2025, or will new stars take the stage and win MVP honors this season? Plus, who are some dark horse candidates to keep an eye out for? We asked five MLB.com writers to make their picks and explain their reasoning.

American League favorites

1. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals
2024 MVP finish: 2nd

Witt had an amazing season last year, the kind that would have earned him an MVP in any year other than an equally standout performance from Judge. I took him first in the draft because I fully expect him to do what he did again. Witt is projected for yet another season with at least 30 homers and 30 stolen bases. He’s already the only shortstop in MLB history with multiple 30-30 seasons, and a third straight would tie Barry Bonds for the longest such streak by any player all time. Witt is a dynamic player on the bases, at the bat and on the field, and he’s shown us that he has the ability to carry his team. That’s an MVP.

-- Sarah Langs

2. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees
2024 MVP finish: 1st

Judge shook off a slow start en route to an incredible offensive campaign in 2024, slashing .322/.458/.701 with 58 home runs and 144 RBIs to win his second MVP. The way the Yankees star has been swinging the bat the past few years (Judge owns a 1.107 OPS from 2022-24) there’s a very good chance he can repeat as league MVP in 2025.

Judge was at or near the top in pretty much every traditional and advanced hitting metric in 2024, posting the highest full-season OPS (not counting 2020) by a qualifying hitter since Bonds’ 1.422 in 2004. Although Judge won’t have Juan Soto in the Yanks’ lineup this year, he’s still an incredible hitter in his prime and has as good a shot as anyone to capture MVP honors.

-- Theo DeRosa

3. Gunnar Henderson, SS, Orioles
2024 MVP finish: 4th

Henderson is on quite a career path so far. He has ascended from No. 1 overall prospect entering 2023 … to AL Rookie of the Year that year … to full-on superstar last year. In taking “the leap” in 2024, Henderson recorded a bWAR north of 9.0 in his age-23 season, joining an exclusive list of all-time greats you know by first name -- including Mookie, Bryce, Cal, Reggie, Mickey, Willie, Stan and Ted.

Time will tell if Gunnar is going to reach those heights. But if Henderson -- whose Opening Day status is up in the air as he deals with a right intercostal strain -- can sustain something even close to the type of performance he put forth in the first half (.287/.373/.584, 28 HR, 14 SB) over an entire season, well, he’s going to push his path to MVP-caliber heights.

-- Jason Catania

4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B/3B, Blue Jays
2024 MVP finish: 6th

Guerrero’s massive season in 2021 -- an MLB-leading 48 homers and AL-leading 1.002 OPS -- led to a second-place finish in the AL MVP vote and seemed to portend an extended breakout for the Toronto slugger.

Though he’s not quite matched that 2021 output since, he’s still managed four straight All-Star appearances and averaged 29 homers the past three seasons. And last season in particular showed that he remains quite a scary presence in the Toronto lineup. His .940 OPS was his highest since 2021, and his offensive prowess drove a 6.2 bWAR over the ‘24 campaign.

Entering his age-26 season and set to be a free agent in the offseason, Guerrero is firmly in his prime, setting the stage for a potentially huge 2025 season that could earn him the coveted MVP hardware.

-- Jason Foster

5. José Ramírez, 3B, Guardians
2024 MVP finish: 5th

This is the year for J-Ram. As great as Judge is, it’s difficult to win back-to-back MVP Awards, especially when you’re going for No. 3 overall -- only a dozen players have ever done that -- you’re turning 33, and you just lost Juan Soto in the lineup. Witt and Henderson are fast-rising superstars, but whether they can replicate last year’s production remains to be seen, especially with Henderson fading in the second half. And Guerrero had a great bounce-back year, but will that carry over into 2025?

Enter Ramírez, who has finished among the top five in AL MVP voting five times and fell one double and one homer shy of becoming the second player in MLB history to have 40 doubles, 40 homers and 40 steals in the same season last year. He’s been one of the most durable and consistently excellent players in the game, and he could finally break through and win the AL MVP Award.

-- Manny Randhawa

National League favorites

1. Juan Soto, OF, Mets
2024 MVP finish: 3rd

I had to race to our Google Doc to make sure I got first pick in the NL for Juan Soto. We’re talking about the best hitter in the game, and he just signed a massive contract with a new team, which he will be eager to prove. But the thing about Juan Soto is that he doesn’t need any of those external motivations -- he’s simply the best hitter there is in the game right now. Soto’s projected for yet another on-base percentage of at least .400, which will be his eighth straight to start his career, as well as another season with at least 25 homers and 125 walks. He already has four seasons with that home run and walk combo, fourth most in a career, behind only Bonds (10), Babe Ruth (10) and Ted Williams (eight). Soto’s seasons are always MVP caliber, and this will be the year he finally wins it.

-- Sarah Langs

2. Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Dodgers
2024 MVP finish: 1st

Just like in the AL section of this list, the reigning MVP feels like a steal at pick No. 2. Ohtani launched the 50-50 club during a memorable first season with the Dodgers, and who isn’t excited to see what he’ll do for an encore? While he’s still on the mend from Tommy John surgery and an offseason procedure to repair a torn labrum, Ohtani will be in the lineup for the season-opening Tokyo Series and back on the mound later in the season.

Seeing Ohtani back at his two-way capabilities in 2025 will be something special -- and he proved to be MVP caliber without even taking the bump last season. If his health holds up, there’s a pretty easy path to a third straight and fourth career MVP for the superstar.

-- Theo DeRosa

3. Kyle Tucker, OF, Cubs
2024 MVP finish: N/A

Tucker, at long last, could find himself with both a statistical case for MVP and a narrative one, too. He’s been among the most productive, efficient and consistent all-around players for four years now, posting a 21.2 bWAR that ranks 10th among hitters since the start of 2021, as well as a 145 OPS+ and stellar plate discipline (11.3 BB%, 15.1 K%). Somehow, though, he always seemed to be overshadowed by bigger names in Houston, like Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, etc.

Still only 28 and having been traded to the Cubs this offseason, Tucker is primed for a peak performance after coming off what was shaping up to be a career campaign (181 OPS+) cut short by injury (78 games). Combine that with the motivation of a walk year, plus an opportunity to propel Chicago to what would be its first playoff berth in a full season since 2018, and King Tuck could reign.

-- Jason Catania

4. Francisco Lindor, SS, Mets
2024 MVP finish: 2nd

Each season has been better than the last during Lindor's four years with the Mets, and that trend resulted in a second-place MVP finish in 2024. So what better way to continue that momentum than with a first-place finish in 2025?

Lindor finished 2024 with 33 homers, an .844 OPS and a 6.9 bWAR. But it was the second half where he really got into a groove and reminded everyone of the danger he poses at the plate. From Aug. 1 through the end of the season, Lindor carried a .956 OPS and almost single-handedly willed the Mets into the postseason.

Interestingly, Lindor's OPS has improved each year by an average of 37 percentage points during his time with the Mets. If that happens this season, he'd finish with an OPS north of .880. But given his second half in 2024, it's reasonable to think it could go much higher.

-- Jason Foster

5. Elly De La Cruz, SS, Reds
2024 MVP finish: 8th

De La Cruz is already one of the most electric players in the game, and he hasn’t yet reached his ceiling. He became just the fifth player in AL/NL history (since 1900) to hit at least 20 homers (25) and steal at least 60 bases (67) in the same season last year. And he did that despite striking out a whopping 31% of the time. If he can even modestly reduce that strikeout rate and continue his arc of improvement in his age-23 season, it is far from far-fetched that he could win the NL MVP Award in 2025.

-- Manny Randhawa

Dark horses

Our "dark horse" picks had to meet two criteria:

• No previous MVP Award wins
• Finished outside the top 10 in 2022-2024 MVP voting

1. Paul Skenes, SP, Pirates
Key stat: 1.96 ERA in 2024 (2nd-lowest by a rookie, min. 20 starts, since ER official)

We saw how electric Skenes was in his rookie year in 2024, and that was just the appetizer. As noted above, he had one of the best rookie seasons we have ever seen for a pitcher. It is going to be so much fun to see what he does in a full season this year as the team’s ace. To win MVP as a pitcher, putting Ohtani to the side, you need to absolutely dominate on the mound, which Skenes has shown us he has the ability to do. And while team success is not a definite necessity for an MVP, Skenes’ position as the leader of a pitching-heavy team in a division that is seemingly up in the air could certainly help his chances.

-- Sarah Langs

2. Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox
Key stat: 126 HR since 2021 (5th most in AL)

Devers has been a reliable slugger for years for the Red Sox, but 2025 could be the season he takes the leap. Just 28 years old, the Boston third baseman has averaged more than 30 homers from 2021 to 2024 and owns a career .856 OPS. He’s long been a threat in the heart of the Red Sox lineup -- a starting nine with plenty of surrounding talent this season thanks to the breakout of Jarren Duran and the addition of Alex Bregman. But he’s never finished higher than 11th (2021) in AL MVP voting.

Devers hit .272 with 28 homers and an .871 OPS in 2024 despite playing through soreness in both shoulders, so if he can stay healthy in 2025 (which could be a big “if”), his offensive potential is sky high. If he can cut down on swings and misses and shore up his defense at third base, an MVP-caliber year could be on the way.

-- Theo DeRosa

3. Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers
Key stat: youngest player to post a 20-HR, 20-SB season

If the Brewers are going to do what they’ve done quite often in recent years -- that is, make the playoffs and win the division despite moving on from key players -- then it just might happen on the back of a kid who doesn’t even turn 21 until Tuesday.

With Willy Adames having signed with the Giants and Devin Williams traded to the Yankees, plus Christian Yelich working to show he can return to full strength after back surgery late last season, Chourio is poised to step up and join William Contreras as the driving forces in Milwaukee. Although he looked overmatched early as a rookie, Chourio put everything together from June 1 on: .303/.358/.525 with 25 doubles, 16 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 98 games. He’s got even bigger goals for his sophomore season -- could that include an MVP push?

-- Jason Catania

4. Michael Harris II, CF, Braves
Key stat: .923 OPS last September

Injuries and underperformance the past two seasons have prevented Harris from truly building on a stellar 2022 NL Rookie of the Year campaign. But there's reason to believe that a fully healthy and locked-in version of him could be in the MVP conversation in 2025 -- especially given how he finished 2024.

Harris was among the Braves' best hitters -- and MLB's best hitters -- down the stretch last season, posting a .923 OPS in September and then collecting five hits, including a homer, over the two games of Atlanta's Wild Card Series against the Padres. In fact, only two MLB players had 120 or more plate appearances and an OPS of .900 or better in September: Ohtani (1.225) and Harris.

Combine that bat with Harris' center-field defense -- range in MLB's 93rd percentile, career-high eight Outs Above Average in '24 -- and things could get interesting.

-- Jason Foster

5. Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers
Key stat: .996 OPS with 8 HR in Sept. 2024

Hey, he went from the College World Series to his MLB debut in less than a year. Why not AL MVP as a sophomore in the big leagues? OK, that’s kind of a stretch. But … is it, really? Langford really turned his rookie campaign around in June, and the type of production he demonstrated from then through the end of the 2024 season is enough to make you wonder whether he could sneak into the MVP discussion in ’25.

On June 2, Langford was hitting .222/.284/.281 with one home run in 148 plate appearances for Texas. From that point through the end of the season, he posted an .804 OPS with 15 homers and 18 steals in 98 games. Despite such a poor start to the season, he finished with 3.9 bWAR. Never say never with Langford.

-- Manny Randhawa