Kolek, Hart, Vásquez vying for open spot in Padres' rotation

PEORIA, Ariz. -- From four contenders down to three.

The Padres remain optimistic that they caught Matt Waldron’s left oblique injury before it developed into something more serious. But that injury almost certainly rules Waldron out of the mix for the Opening Day rotation.

As such, it’s now three pitchers vying for one spot at the back end -- behind the quartet of Michael King, Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish and Nick Pivetta. There might also be a place available in the bullpen for another of those contenders.

With Waldron sidelined, here’s what you need to know about the state of the Padres’ rotation race:

Who are the contenders?

1. Stephen Kolek: Kolek arrived as arguably the biggest longshot of the bunch, but he might suddenly be the favorite. In addition to his impressive work on the back-fields, Kolek has allowed just one run on five hits across nine innings.

The 27-year-old right-hander came up in the Mariners’ system as a starter, but he moved to the bullpen a couple years ago and then was selected by San Diego in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft. All of Kolek’s appearances came in relief last season, but the Padres have been building him up toward a starter’s workload this spring -- to much success.

2. Kyle Hart: By far the biggest wild card of the bunch, Hart has hardly pitched this spring after signing with the Padres early in camp. His only Cactus League appearance lasted two innings in a game that was subsequently canceled due to rain. After that, Hart dealt with an illness and missed his last turn in the rotation.

That leaves Hart with two more starts to make an impression. Despite his slow start, manager Mike Shildt said Saturday that Hart would have ample time to be fully built up before the season. The left-hander spent the past three years pitching in Korea (and won the KBO’s version of the Cy Young Award last season). The Padres are intrigued by the upside, but they’ve yet to see it play out.

3. Randy Vásquez: Of the three, Vásquez is the known commodity. After arriving in the Juan Soto deal last season, Vásquez was perfectly serviceable in shuttling back-and-forth between Triple-A and the Majors. He finished the season with a 4.87 ERA in 98 big league innings.

Perhaps because the Padres already know what they have in Vásquez, he’s been relegated to a couple back-field outings recently -- including a Triple-A game on Friday. Vásquez pitched five scoreless innings in the game, and Shildt called the performance “really good.”

Two spots up for grabs?

To be clear, there’s only one place available in the starting rotation. The Padres open the season with a handful of April off-days and have said they would begin the year with a five-man rotation.

But a couple injuries in the bullpen may have opened a place for one of those three starters to earn a spot as a long-man. Right-handers Bryan Hoeing (right shoulder soreness) and Sean Reynolds (right foot stress reaction) will begin the season on the injured list.

Suddenly, there’s a need in the Padres’ bullpen -- and, without Hoeing, it’s a bullpen that doesn’t have much length. Shildt said that the long-relief role “is important early in the season as starters continue to get built up -- and not to push them too much early in a season.”

Ron Marinaccio and Alek Jacob, perhaps the favorites for the last two bullpen spots, have both proven capable of pitching multiple innings. But neither qualifies as a true long man. (On that front, Jhony Brito, who began the spring in the rotation race but has since moved to the bullpen full-time, is a contender.)

When is Waldron back?

Both Shildt and Waldron noted they’d have more information in the coming days, once the inflammation has subsided. If the Padres caught Waldron’s injury early enough, perhaps he wouldn’t need a full build-up period.

“We’ll have a better idea to the severity of it -- the length of the downtime before he can start activity -- but, it’s going to be a period of time,” Shildt said. “The longer you’re down, every day you’re down, the longer it takes to get back.”

Waldron’s timetable might impact the Padres’ decision-making. Shildt has spoken of a need to have a handful of starting-pitching options ready at Triple-A, and if Waldron’s absence is a lengthy one, that could give the Padres less leeway to carry one of those starters in the season-opening bullpen.