The dynamics of Alonso possibly returning to Mets

This story was excerpted from Anthony DiComo’s Mets Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Even as I vacationed in Australia this month, on the other side of the globe, I could not escape the questions. Are the Mets going to re-sign Pete Alonso?

Take everything that follows with a sizable grain of salt, because I won’t believe Alonso is heading elsewhere until he actually does. On paper, the match is simply too snug for me to dismiss. It’s a player who has openly espoused his love for New York, a team that features an obvious hole at first base and a fan base that, by and large, would welcome Alonso back.

But I also don’t believe for a second that Mets officials are bluffing. Recent reports from SNY, the New York Post and The Athletic have painted the front office as willing to walk away from Alonso. It appears clear that the Mets won’t go much beyond three years and, say, $70 million, as the Post suggested. At that price, they would surely welcome Alonso back. But if Alonso continues balking at such figures, I do believe the Mets are sincere in their willingness to walk away.

Frankly, it’s a thornier situation for Alonso than it is for the Mets. Alonso reportedly rejected a seven-year, $158 million extension offer during the 2023 season, on the premise that he could earn more on the open market. While he’s clearly not going to achieve that now, returning to Queens on a much smaller deal would require Alonso to swallow a heaping portion of pride. But if the alternative is signing elsewhere just to save face, that doesn’t seem very appealing either. And where exactly is elsewhere at this point?

Mets officials understand these dynamics. They’re also willing to play hardball because they’re not afraid of the alternative: a world in which Mark Vientos or someone else plays first base, and a world in which the Mets won’t be footing the bill as Alonso enters his mid-30s. His OPS has sunk in each of his past three seasons. His defense has never been stellar. Further decline would sap the value from a long-term deal, which is why the Mets are refusing to offer him one.

It’s a fascinating staredown that could still have a happy ending. But don’t think for a second that the Mets are bluffing.

Other notes from the first half of January:

? When the Hall of Fame releases its ballot results Tuesday evening, I’ll be looking out for three things. The obvious one is whether Billy Wagner can gain the five votes needed for induction. The second is how much additional support Carlos Beltrán will receive despite his links to Houston’s sign-stealing scandal. The third, and perhaps most intriguing, is how many votes David Wright will get. Wright has already garnered more support than I initially thought he would. The case for him is compelling. If he can shoot into the double digits this year, the idea of his future induction suddenly becomes plausible.

? The Jesse Winker signing could wind up being the steal of the offseason. He’s a 31-year-old coming off his best season since 2021 and his healthiest year ever. People forget how good Winker was from 2017-21, when he produced an .888 OPS over 413 games. At this stage of his career, Winker isn’t more than a platoon player, but he’s the exact type of part-timer winning teams need.