Which arm could slot in to complete Royals' rotation?

This story was excerpted from Anne Rogers' Royals Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

KANSAS CITY -- In the buildup to Spring Training, we’ll utilize this newsletter to go around the horn to assess the Royals’ roster for 2025 and look at what prospects are on the rise at each position. We’ve featured the position player group so far: catchers, infield and outfield.

Now we turn to pitching.

The Royals rotation’s 3.55 ERA was the second-best in baseball last year, quite the turnaround from 2023, when its 5.12 ERA was fourth-worst in the Majors. The two free agent starters the Royals brought in last offseason, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, have worked out extremely well. And having Cole Ragans as a rising ace certainly helps.

One big absence in 2025 will be Brady Singer, a homegrown starter who was traded to the Reds for Jonathan India and outfielder Joey Wiemer. Singer was the Royals’ fourth starter, but his 179 2/3 innings were valuable, and his absence creates questions entering spring.

Here’s where the rotation stands right now:

Projected starters: Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Michael Lorenzen

Lugo threw 206 2/3 innings last year and posted a 3.00 ERA, culminating with a second-place American League Cy Young finish. Ragans wasn’t far behind with a 3.14 ERA and a fourth-place finish. And Wacha had a 3.35 ERA, leading the Royals to re-up the righty, agreeing to a three-year contract in November. That trio forms a reliable 1-2-3 punch at the top of the rotation, and it’s hard to overstate how important they will be if the club wants to repeat its success this season.

Kansas City brought Lorenzen back in part to help supply the innings Singer provided. Lorenzen has bullpen experience, but he’ll fill a need as a starter for the Royals. That leaves one open spot.

Competition for the fifth spot: Alec Marsh, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch IV, Kyle Wright, Noah Cameron

Marsh won this competition a year ago, appearing in 26 games (25 starts) in 2024 while posting a 4.53 ERA across 129 innings. The 26-year-old showed flashes of what he could eventually be, but consistency will determine if Marsh can win the starting job and stick there.

The Royals are confident in Bubic’s potential return to the rotation, even after seeing how much success he had in the bullpen last year when he returned from Tommy John surgery and posted a 2.67 ERA. There are certainly questions about the bullpen without Bubic in it, but the Royals are counting on a healthy Hunter Harvey to help out in the back-end. And if Bubic can see his reliever mindset and stuff translate back into the rotation, there’s a lot of value there.

Similarly, Lynch found a groove at the end of last season as a reliever, with zero runs allowed in his final 20 2/3 innings. The Royals found the right spots for him in a small sample, but maybe they also found a role for the lefty -- who has yet to show consistent results as a starter in the big leagues. Lynch will still build up as a starter because the Royals need depth, but like Marsh and Bubic, he could also help in the ‘pen.

Wright didn’t pitch the entire 2024 season after undergoing right shoulder surgery. He’s said to have had a normal offseason, but the Royals might have him on a slower progression entering the season because of his long layoff. We’ll find out more once camp gets going. Either way, Kansas City is excited about the possibility of Wright pitching again this year.

Cameron, the Royals’ 12th-ranked prospect (who is due for a jump up in this spring’s prospect rankings), was added to the 40-man roster in November. He’ll work with the starters in big league camp, but it’s most likely he opens the season as the Triple-A ace, ready to make his debut at some point in 2025.

Jonathan Bowlan is also on the 40-man roster, making his debut last season but spending the majority of the season in Triple-A. Traditionally a starter, Bowlan made some appearances out of the bullpen last year and could be considered a swing man — or a spot-starter option — if the Royals need it throughout the year.

Top 30 prospects: Noah Cameron (No. 12), Ben Kudrna (No. 3), Blake Wolters (No. 4), David Shields (No. 7), Drew Beam (No. 9), Frank Mozzicato (No. 11), Chandler Champlain (No. 16), Steven Zobac (No. 17), Hunter Owen (No. 19), Hiro Wyatt (No. 21), Luinder Avila (No. 26), Tyson Guerrero (No. 27)

Some of these names could turn into relievers, and a lot of them are still a few years away from Kansas City. Shields and Beam are 2024 Draft picks about to embark on their first full pro seasons. Wolters and Wyatt are young with high upside, but their progressions will be slower as prep pitchers from the ‘23 Draft.

Kudrna, the Kansas City native who was a second-round pick in 2021, took a big step forward last year and was invited to big league camp. He’ll likely head back to Double-A Northwest Arkansas to start the season but could be in Triple-A Omaha by the end of the year. Mozzicato, the first-round pick in ‘21, will likely join Kudrna in Double-A this year, too, along with Owen, who was a fourth-round pick in ‘23 out of Vanderbilt.

As mentioned, Cameron is the closest to Kansas City. But Avila was also added to the 40-man roster in November and should be at Triple-A this year; the 23-year-old is considered a durable starter but he could find a fit in the bullpen depending on the Royals’ needs.

Champlain, Zobac and Guerrero were all invited to big league camp and are considered part of the Royals’ pitching depth in the Minors. Champlain and Guerrero will open the season in Triple-A, and Zobac has a chance to join them quickly if his season goes anything like last year, when the Royals’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year posted a 3.64 ERA between High-A Quad Cities and Double-A.