5 offseason questions for Twins to address

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Considering how these playoffs have narrowed down to two unlikely finalists in the Rangers and D-backs, this had all the makings of a wide-open postseason field in which the Twins could have made some noise had they advanced beyond the American League Division Series.

But 2023 is now over -- and '24 will soon take center stage following the conclusion of this World Series. Many of these Twins will be back -- but many will not. What’s in store for this offseason? Here are five questions Minnesota needs to answer.

1) How will they replace Sonny Gray?
Gray isn’t the only starting pitcher the Twins will lose this offseason (Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda and Dallas Keuchel are also headed out the door), but he’s definitely going to be this club’s most impactful free-agent-to-be.

His Game 3 start in the ALDS against the Astros notwithstanding, Gray was the most valuable player on the '23 roster by most metrics, and his 2.79 ERA with 183 strikeouts in 184 innings helped him finish second among all AL pitchers in WAR, per FanGraphs -- a spot ahead of Yankees AL Cy Young Award frontrunner Gerrit Cole.

Gray was, for all intents and purposes, this team’s co-ace alongside Pablo López -- and though the Twins will have López, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack and Bailey Ober back as the base of another solid rotation, they’re set to lose a lot of high-end stability when Gray presumably declines the qualifying offer Minnesota is set to offer him in the coming weeks.

There’s still uncertainty regarding the team’s payroll flexibility due to the expiration of the organization’s television deal with Diamond Sports Group. Even beyond that, the Twins have never been a team to spend on free-agent pitching, with their four-year, $55 million commitment to Ervin Santana still the largest they’ve made to a pitcher on the open market.

Gray has said that money isn’t necessarily the most important factor to him, and that he’d love to be back in Minnesota -- but he’s been waiting a long time for this free agency. Will the Twins find a trade partner, bring back either Gray or Maeda, or go outside the organization for another pitcher on a shallow market? That could be their defining move of the offseason.

2) What’s the plan in center field?
Until proven otherwise, the plan can’t be to rely on Byron Buxton as the everyday center fielder, and this organization knows that. The Twins will take what they can get from Buxton, who never stepped foot in center in the Majors in '23 and just underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee for a second consecutive offseason -- but they can’t plan around him.

Minnesota's trade for Michael A. Taylor ahead of the '23 season was one of its most prudent decisions -- and with Taylor bound for free agency, the Twins will have to figure out what’s next.

Internally, they can mix and match Willi Castro and the organization's No. 20 prospect Austin Martin, who appears a lock to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. Another intriguing name to watch in the organization is DaShawn Keirsey Jr., who had an .821 OPS in the high Minors and could be on the Rule 5 roster bubble.

If they want a more experienced center fielder who is defense-focused, a short-term reunion with Taylor could certainly make sense -- and other options like Kevin Kiermaier, Adam Duvall and Harrison Bader will be available on the market.

3) What (if anything) can they count on from Jose Miranda?
First base is also a position of harsh uncertainty on this roster, with Alex Kirilloff having undergone right shoulder surgery -- without rotator cuff or labrum repair -- to begin his offseason and Donovan Solano bound for free agency.

The Twins need more consistent offensive production from what’s typically a powerhouse offensive position -- and clarity with Miranda will be important in that regard.

Miranda was the organization’s Minor League Player of the Year in '21 and had a breakout '22, but he was a big disappointment in '23, when he was expected to be a run producer from the heart of the lineup. A right shoulder issue held him back from Spring Training through the end of the season, and he was never right.

“The version of José we saw when he was fully healthy back in 2021 is a really exciting factor, but we can’t really have that expectation right now, just because we don’t know where he’s at just from a health standpoint and a return standpoint,” president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said.

4) What happens with Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler?
This won’t be a mystery for long. Contract options must be exercised within five days of the conclusion of the World Series, and the Twins hold significant club options for Polanco ($10.5 million) and Kepler ($10 million), their two longest-tenured players.

Kepler rebounded from a string of disappointing seasons with one of the best second-half performances on the team and posted an .816 OPS with 24 homers -- his best marks since 2019. Polanco remained a steady switch-hitting contributor at second, so it would make sense for Minnesota to keep both.

But could one or both perhaps be trade candidates after that if the Twins need to swing a deal for a pitcher, considering the club's relative depth at both positions?

5) Is there still room for Nick Gordon?
Gordon remains one of the best-liked and energetic players on the team, but he was held back by underperformance and a fractured leg in what he’d hoped would be a breakout ‘23, and the emergence of Castro and Martin as the seeming utility men of the future could make for a roster squeeze involving Gordon, who is out of Minor League options.

The Twins don’t need to make a hasty decision here, and this could extend beyond the offseason into Spring Training.