Twins top prospect Jenkins passing every test at camp

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- The Twins knew they were in for a promising pick when they jumped from No. 13 to No. 5 in the 2023 Draft lottery. There was a Big Five in the Draft class between four stellar outfielders (two from college, two from high school) and a high-octane arm. Whoever “fell” could still be special.

As it turned out, that was North Carolina prepster Walker Jenkins, who Minnesota officials noted earned a top-of-the-line 8 evaluation from scouting director Mike Radcliff before he died in February 2023. Jenkins backed up the organizational and industry-wide belief in his five-tool ability by slashing .362/.417/.571 with 12 extra-base hits and six steals over 26 games between the Florida Complex League and Single-A Fort Myers. The 19-year-old outfielder kept up his momentum with work in Twins offseason camps and continues to be a consistent standout on the Spring Training backfields; his triple-digit exit velocities are regular features on Minnesota’s player development X account.

• MLB Pipeline | Top 100 prospects | Prospect video

So with Jenkins passing virtually every test in front of him as a pro, just how aggressive can the Twins get with their No. 1 prospect (MLB No. 10) in his first full season? According to director of player development Drew MacPhail, the organization isn’t getting too caught up in that just yet.

“We told Walker what we tell everyone that there are two leagues -- the big leagues and not the big leagues,” MacPhail said. “Where you start ultimately doesn’t matter that much.”

Case in point: the Twins went through something similar the last time they had a top-five pick. Minnesota selected Royce Lewis first overall in 2017 and let him see Single-A the same summer. Despite batting .296 in his 18-game spell with Cedar Rapids, the young shortstop returned to the Kernels to begin his first full season and got in 75 more Midwest League games before finally seeing High-A Fort Myers.

• Subscribe to the MLB Pipeline Newsletter

A downturn in production in 2019, two torn ACLs and the pandemic made Lewis’ development journey more jagged than the Twins would like to see with Jenkins (though they wouldn’t mind him turning into another King of the Grand Slam either), so the organization has looked to more recent examples for plans for Jenkins’ rise beyond Single-A, including an especially notable one in particular.

“If you look at Jackson Holliday, he had a pretty incredible trajectory,” MacPhail said. “He had an unbelievable part of a professional season when he first got drafted, and then he went back to Low-A and went all the way through to Triple-A. If you look at some past data points of guys drafted that high and where they start, that’s going to inform our decision.”

It isn’t hard to read between the lines. Barring any spring craziness, Jenkins -- called “Captain America” by Michael Cuddyer -- will return to the Florida State League, where he’ll get everyday at-bats and continue to show above-average speed and a plus arm in center field. If the left-handed slugger continues to make a ton of contact and exhibit promising power -- as he did in his first FSL turn with a 10.7 percent K rate and .608 slugging percentage -- he’ll be on his way to High-A before long and maybe see the upper levels before the summer is up.

By the way, Holliday reached High-A on April 25, Double-A on July 14 and Triple-A on Sept. 5. The path has already been laid, if the Twins want to follow it.

“One thing I loved that he told us, ‘No matter where I go, I don’t plan on being there for too long,’” MacPhail said of Jenkins. “That’s our plan too. Whether it’s Low-A or High-A to start doesn’t matter. I’m excited to see where he finishes.”

Breakout potential: Marco Raya

On paper, all the 2020 fourth-rounder needs to do to elevate his prospect ranking is add innings. Raya has yet to exceed 65 innings in a Minor League season, following a shoulder strain that caused him to miss all of 2021. Even with guardrails in place, he reached Double-A in his age-20 season last year and struck out 65 over 62 2/3 frames between there and High-A, thanks to a fastball, slider and changeup that each receive plus grades.

But now as he’s about to work deeper into outings this summer, Raya is also finetuning that arsenal, and all of that combined could lead to a big leap in 2024.

“This year, he’s been working on adding a cutter to his repertoire,” MacPhail said. “He’s been throwing that 90 mph. It’s been getting a ton of swing-and-miss to pair with that devastating slider. Now he has two really impressive sliders that he can mix and match, and he’s also throwing his curveball 83-84 mph. I think he had an incredible season last year, and it feels like he’s really taken his game to a whole new level this year.”

Spring standout: Charlee Soto

When MacPhail first talked to MLB Pipeline, he mentioned Soto had been up to 98 on the backfields. That’s changed. He’s up to 99 now. But it isn’t just the velocity that excites the organization.

The Twins first challenged the 34th overall pick to add a sinker this spring, giving him a fastball that could run armside compared to the movement of the four-seam. Asked how it was going, Soto responded, “Gross.”

The 6-foot-3 right-hander is scheduled to participate in Saturday’s Spring Breakout game against the Rays, where he could put that upper-90s heat on display. But because his second fastball development has already gone so well, the Twins want to keep him challenged with more repertoire work -- something else to keep an eye on during the weekend showcase.

“He’s currently working on finding a firm slider variation,” MacPhail said. “He’s made a ton of progress in a short time, and he’s already on a second pitch after mastering the first pitch goal we gave him. He’s really exciting.”

Something to prove: Austin Martin

The 2020 fifth overall pick’s career may not have gone as planned, between his trade from the Blue Jays to the Twins and injury-laden seasons, including a 2023 that was limited by a torn UCL in his left (non-throwing) elbow. But all that aside, the Vanderbilt product joined Triple-A St. Paul in early July, needed some time to find himself and then posted a .428 OBP with a 29/29 K/BB ratio over 40 games in August and September.

Fearing a potential Rule 5 pick, the Twins added the second baseman/outfielder to the 40-man roster in November. That’s certainly a reward for Martin’s growth at the Minors’ top level, but now, Minnesota’s No. 15 prospect needs to justify the roster spot moving forward by proving his health and Major League readiness.

As of Monday, the former Commodore remains in Major League camp with an outside shot at winning a bench role, but if Martin returns to Triple-A as expected, the Twins won’t let his roster status cloud their approach to his development in his age-25 season.

“Whether he’s on the 40-man or not, we're still going try to do everything we possibly can to prepare him for that first game in the big leagues,” MacPhail said. “So on our end, I don't think the calculus changes that much. He's going to go out and get everyday plate appearances, and I think we're really excited with where he's at after the last couple of months he put together at Triple-A.”