This story was excerpted from Jordan Bastian¡¯s Cubs Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

CINCINNATI -- Reality is on display on the scoreboard every time Cubs slugger Christopher Morel steps into the batter¡¯s box. The surface-level numbers show a hitter who is underperforming expectations for someone routinely occupying the cleanup spot for a team in need of power.

The under-the-hood statistics tell a different story.

¡°When you look at his expected numbers, they're really positive,¡± Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said. ¡°The walk rate. The strikeout rate. The expected numbers based on his batted-ball profile are like 100 points better than his numbers. Those are the kind of things you just assume they even out over the course of the season.¡±

Determining how much of a sample is the right size for accurate evaluation is more art than science, but the data supports the Cubs exercising patience with Morel¡¯s offensive results with roughly four months left on the schedule. Right now, the intersection of expectation and reality remains off in the distance.

The raw results show that Morel has a .203 average with a .387 slugging percentage and a .309 weighted on-base average through 61 games this year for the Cubs. The underlying numbers via Statcast include a .265 expected average to go along with a .500 expected slugging (top 11% in MLB) and a .377 xwOBA (top 8% in MLB).

¡°The expected stuff,¡± Cubs manager Craig Counsell said, ¡°that¡¯s probably what we should trust more than the other stuff.¡±

That does not make it any easier on a hitter who is not getting the results.

¡°These guys still look up at the scoreboard and see numbers that they don't like, right?¡± Cubs hitting coach Dustin Kelly said. ¡°You can only pat him on the butt so many times before he's like, ¡®Am I doing something wrong?¡¯ And you're like, ¡®No, you're not. Just keep going. I promise this is going to change.¡¯ But guys, they look at those numbers and it's real.¡±

Beyond the expected stats, the fact that Morel has maintained his impressive improvement in strikeout and walk rate through the first two months is also fueling the Cubs¡¯ belief that his overall numbers will continue to tick up. Morel has a 12.3% walk rate in 2024, compared to an 8.4% rate last year. His strikeout rate is down to 21.8%, compared to 31% in ¡®23 and 32.2% in ¡®22.

¡°I just go out there and control what I can control,¡± Morel said via translator Fredy Quevedo Jr. ¡°I pick my strike zone and just go ahead and try to put the ball in play, and I know that eventually the results will be given.¡±

In Wednesday¡¯s 7-6 comeback win over the White Sox, Morel boasted the hardest-hit ball of the night with a 109.8 mph single in the second inning. He also drew a key walk as part of a three-run rally in the seventh. On Tuesday, Morel launched a two-run homer, reached on an infield single and scored the decisive run, helping overcome a costly error he made at third base earlier in the victory (also a 7-6 win).

The Cubs are showing patience with Morel at the plate, but Counsell acknowledged before Wednesday¡¯s game that the team is still assessing the situation at third base. Morel has -9 Outs Above Average and -7 Defensive Runs Saved at third.

¡°We have to keep evaluating it,¡± Counsell said. ¡°Our job is to put the best team out there. You do have to have your eye on making players better. ¡­ But also, we have to produce, right? Christopher, I think in areas there¡¯s been some progress, and then we¡¯ve taken some steps back on days, for sure. As we get a bigger sample here, we¡¯ve got to evaluate that, absolutely.¡±