Measuring PCA's excellence on bases, in field
This story was excerpted from Jordan Bastian's Cubs Beat newsletter. This edition was written by reporter/researcher David Adler. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
Kyle Tucker is going to bring the elite bat to the Cubs¡¯ outfield next season. Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to bring the rest.
"The rest" means elite speed and an elite glove. And we can quantify exactly how much of a difference-maker PCA is.
Statcast launched new baserunning leaderboards this week. Crow-Armstrong is one of the biggest standouts. And he was already one of the biggest standouts in Statcast's defensive stats.
Yes, he still needs to hit. But he's 22. His bat has time to come around. And the speed and defense are already there. Boy, are they there. Crow-Armstrong is one of the most dynamic young players in baseball in those two areas.
Actually, PCA was the most valuable speed-and-defense player in the Major Leagues in 2024.
For the first time, Statcast can measure the run value a player generates in all three phases of the game: batting, baserunning and fielding. In other words, we can see Crow-Armstrong's runs created for the Cubs via his speed, and his runs prevented for the Cubs via his defense.
The combined value PCA created with his fielding and baserunning was the highest of any player in MLB. And he's at the top of an impressive list.
Most valuable speed + defense players, 2024
(Highest combined fielding run value + baserunning run value)
? Pete Crow-Armstrong: +22 run value from speed/defense
? Patrick Bailey: +22 run value
? Jacob Young: +21 run value
? Brenton Doyle: +20 run value
? Elly De La Cruz: +19 run value
? Dansby Swanson: +18 run value
? Jarren Duran: +18 run value
? Daulton Varsho: +18 run value
? Jose Siri: +17 run value
? Bobby Witt Jr.: +17 run value
? Anthony Volpe: +16 run value
? Corbin Carroll: +16 run value
? Francisco Lindor: +15 run value
? Marcus Semien: +15 run value
? Andr¨¦s Gim¨¦nez: +15 run value
Crow-Armstrong ranked third among all MLB fielders with a +16 fielding run value, behind only Bailey (whose "speed and defense" value on the leaderboard up there essentially all came from his fielding as an elite catcher ¡ just in case you were wondering how a catcher ended up on that list) and Varsho.
And he ranked seventh among all MLB baserunners with a +6 baserunning run value, behind only Carroll, Shohei Ohtani, Maikel Garcia, De La Cruz, Victor Robles and Brice Turang.
Crow-Armstrong was the only player to rank inside MLB's top 10 in both fielding value and baserunning value in 2024.
PCA's speed is the driving force behind both of those skills. Crow-Armstrong had a sprint speed of 30.0 feet per second last season. He was one of only seven players to average 30 ft/sec or faster, which is the threshold for elite MLB speed.
That speed gives Crow-Armstrong enormous range in center field. He was worth +14 outs above average in 2024, which tells you how good he was at tracking down balls and making catches, sixth-best among MLB outfielders.
And it gives him the ability to both steal bases at a high clip and take the extra base during a play.
Crow-Armstrong ranked seventh on Statcast's new basestealing leaderboard, with +22 net bases gained in 2024. Think of "net bases gained" as his successful steals vs. an average player, based on the success probability of all of his stolen base opportunities.
Crow-Armstrong runs aggressively and efficiently. He attempted steals at one of the highest rates of any baserunner, and he was also one of the best at not making outs on the bases. That gives him a huge boost over the typical player when it comes to basestealing value.
Now add his ability to advance extra bases on balls in play, and you get one of the biggest baserunning threats in MLB. Just think back to Crow-Armstrong's inside-the-park home run on Aug. 23, where he circled the bases in just 14.08 seconds, the fastest since Byron Buxton's Statcast era-record 13.85 seconds in 2017.
That's the type of play PCA can make, and not a lot of other guys can make, not even in the Major Leagues. So if the bat catches up, even a little, in 2025, the Cubs have a star.